中國為什么關注烏克蘭局勢
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????烏克蘭是一個幸福度不高的國家。這并非我的觀點，，而是聯合國（UN）最新《全球幸福報告》（World Happiness Report）的結論。這個報告根據大量調研，對156個國家進行幸福度排名。烏克蘭排名第87位，幸福度比拉脫維亞高一點，比加納略低。 ????烏克蘭幸福度如此之低，一點也不意外。在224個國家排名中，烏克蘭的出生率排在第202位，而死亡率則高居第二（僅次于南非）。人口死亡率幾乎是出生率的兩倍。理論上，一個國家可以通過吸引移民來抵消人口下降趨勢，但烏克蘭的做法恰恰相反：人口流出速度快于流入速度。 因此，烏克蘭人口不斷下降。與此同時，腐敗、政治動蕩和不穩定對烏克蘭經濟造成了巨大的沖擊，導致它目前的經濟規模依然小于1991年從蘇聯宣布獨立時候的規模。如果你生活在那里，你也會感到不幸福。 ????那么，一家外國公司的CEO為什么要關心烏克蘭呢？有幾個原因，其中最大的原因可能就是糧食。老一代美國人在小學課本里就學到過，烏克蘭是“蘇聯的糧倉”，現在它仍然是一個糧倉。糧食是烏克蘭的靈魂；它的國旗是藍黃色條，代表了麥田和晴空。烏克蘭自己吃不完這些糧食。隨著全世界人口數量不斷增長、貧窮減少，糧食成為一個更有爭議的全球問題，不幸福的、人口下降的烏克蘭變得更加重要——無論是在經濟上、還是地緣政治上。 ????這就是為什么約翰迪爾（Deere）CEO山姆?艾倫、卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）現任CEO道格?奧伯赫爾曼和前任CEO雷?萊恩都曾告訴過我，烏克蘭對于他們的公司戰略有多重要。這也是為什么這兩家公司，還有Archer Daniels Midland 、嘉吉(Cargill)、杜邦(DuPont)、Mondelez、孟山都(Monsanto)以及其他美國農業公司都在烏克蘭經營的原因。 ????或許最重要的是，這也是為什么去年中國達成了一個50年的特別協議，將租賃烏克蘭5%的土地，也就是740萬英畝的面積。這個面積大概與馬薩諸塞州或比利時的面積相仿。中國消費全球約20%的糧食，而且這個比例還在快速增長。但中國的耕地面積只占全球9%，而隨著城鎮化吞噬更多耕地，這個比例還在下降。中國需要從烏克蘭這個糧倉中分一杯羹。中國的官方通訊社已經刊發文章，警告中國“糧食安全”面臨的威脅。 ????普京非常清楚，希望對烏克蘭施加影響的可不止俄羅斯和西方。 ????未來一段時間我們將看到從烏克蘭傳出大量的政治軍事消息，但幾乎都不會提到該國對于全球糧食供應的重要性。不過，我們絕不能忘了，這個問題始終隱藏在背后。（財富中文網） |
????Ukraine is a sad country. That's not my opinion -- well, actually it is, but setting that aside for the moment, it's also a finding of the UN's most recent World Happiness Report, which combines massive quantities of research to rank 156 nations by happiness. Ukraine is No. 87, just a bit happier than Latvia and slightly more miserable than Ghana. ????Such deep gloom is no surprise. In a ranking of 224 countries, Ukraine's birth rate is No. 202, while its death rate is No. 2 (behind only South Africa). People are dying almost twice as fast as they're being born. In theory a country can counter that population-draining effect by attracting immigrants, but Ukraine is doing the opposite: People are moving out faster than they're moving in. Thus the population is shrinking, while corruption, political turmoil, and instability have hammered the economy so badly that it's still smaller than it was when the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. If you lived there, you'd be unhappy too. ????So why would a foreign CEO care about Ukraine? For a few reasons, of which the largest may well be food. Americans of a certain vintage learned in elementary school that Ukraine is "the breadbasket of the Soviet Union," and it's still a breadbasket. Grain is in Ukraine's soul; the country's flag, a band of blue over a band of gold, symbolizes a clear sky over a field of grain. Ukraine can't consume nearly as much food as it produces. As food becomes a more contentious global issue with the world's population growing richer and more numerous, sad, shrinking Ukraine becomes more important -- economically and geopolitically. ????That's why Sam Allen, CEO of Deere (DE), and Doug Oberhelman and Ray Lane, the current and former CEOs of Caterpillar (CAT), have all told me how critical the country is to their strategies. It's also why those companies plus Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Cargill, DuPont (DD), Mondelez (MDLZ), Monsanto (MON), and other U.S. agribusiness companies have operations there. ????Perhaps most important, it's why China last year negotiated an extraordinary 50-year deal to rent 5% of Ukraine -- 7.4 million acres, about the size of Massachusetts or Belgium. China consumes some 20% of the world's food, a share that is increasing fast, but it has only 9% of the world's arable land, a share that is declining as urbanization takes over more farmland. The country needs a piece of the breadbasket. China's official government news agency has published articles warning of threats to the country's "grain security." ????Vladimir Putin is well aware that Russia and the West aren't the only players that want a degree of influence over Ukraine. ????We'll see lots of political and military news from Ukraine in coming days, and almost none of it will mention the country's significance for the world's food supply. Let's remember that that issue is always lurking in the background. |
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