蘋果產(chǎn)品未來走向大預測
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????在由Business Insider主辦、為期三天、主題為“數(shù)字的未來”的Ignition大會上，除去亨利?布拉吉在周二的公開演示中就蒂姆?庫克在中國保持競爭力所需做的事情上提出了幾句尖銳評論外，唯一專門討論蘋果（Apple）的會議就是吉恩?蒙斯特15分鐘的午餐后演示，題為“蘋果的現(xiàn)狀”。 ????下面是他在會中提到的觀點： ????? iPhone的銷量在過去兩個季度中增長了23%，而市場的總體銷量增長了47%。蒙斯特對與會者說：“實際上，iPhone增長速度之所以低于整體市場是由于在新興市場定價過高。” ????? 蒙斯特預計蘋果將在明年年中推出更大尺寸的iPhone（5英寸）。盡管去年iPhone的價格并未變動（iPhone 4除外），但他認為蘋果很快就會在新興市場降低老款手機的價格。 ????? iPad給蘋果貢獻了25%的收入，不過近來它也開始遭遇困境。究其緣由，是因為平板電腦的創(chuàng)新更加艱難，而市場對價格也更加敏感。（與iPhone不同，iPad無法得到運營商的補貼。） ????? 蒙斯特相信，蘋果正在開發(fā)更大屏幕的iPad，并將于2015年發(fā)售。他表示，平板電腦市場太大了（有人估計，明年將會有3.2億臺的銷量），蘋果不可能不擴大產(chǎn)品種類。“我們相信，僅僅兩種尺寸不可能滿足所有人的需求。”同樣，為了品牌化的打算，和MacBook Pro一樣，蘋果也會推出iPad Pro。 ????? 蘋果電視是蒙斯特最喜歡討論的話題之一。他不動聲色地說：“我總是低估蘋果電視面世所需的時間。”他最初預計蘋果電視將于2012年（也許是2011年？）面世。不過他依然堅持自己的觀點。他相信蘋果電視很快就會面世，時間就在2014年。 ????? 蒙斯特詼諧地模仿了投資公司Piper Jaffray的一個小調(diào)查，給大家播放了街邊采訪的視頻。14位消費者中，有7位表示愿意購買蘋果電視，5位表示不愿意，還有2位不確定。今年夏天更大范圍的一次調(diào)查中，50%的受訪者表示有興趣購買iTV。不過當?shù)弥娨暿蹆r也許高達1,700美元時，這個比例下降到了15%。 ????? 根據(jù)蒙斯特的計算，如果在有線電視市場占據(jù)15%的份額，蘋果的總收入就能增加18%。“這就是為什么我們認定蘋果會進入這個市場。” ????? 蒙斯特還認為，iWatch將于2014年面世。這并不因為他從亞洲的供應商那里得到了信號，而是因為這符合蒂姆?庫克對新產(chǎn)品的闡述和他對手表的“強烈興趣”。蒙斯特說，在像FuelBand這種地方的員工“不會無緣無故跳槽到蘋果，除非是蘋果在打手表的主意。”。 ????? 引人注目的是，在第二個演示視頻中，13位受訪者里只有1位表示有興趣購買蘋果手表。在另外一個范圍更廣泛的調(diào)查中，12%的iPhone用戶表示他們或許會購買iWatch；而在安卓用戶中，這個比例降到了6%。蒙斯特預計，如果蘋果能賣出500萬到1000萬塊手表，它的年收入則可以增加1%到2%。 |
????Except for a few snarky comments Henry Blodget made in his opening presentation Tuesday about what Tim Cook needs to do to stay competitive in China, the only session devoted to Apple (AAPL) at Business Insider's three-day Ignition: Future of Digital conference was Gene Munster's 15-minute after-lunch talk titled "The State of Apple." ????Among the points he made: ????? iPhone unit sales grew 23% over the past two quarters compared with 47% for the overall market. "The reality is," Munster told Ignition attendees, "the iPhone is growing slower than market rates because it's priced too high for emerging markets." ????? Munster expects Apple to introduce a larger iPhone (5-inch) in the middle of next year, and although iPhone pricing hasn't changed over the past year (except for the iPhone 4) he expects Apple will soon start lowering prices for older phones in emerging markets. ????? The iPad represents 25% of Apple's revenue, but it's been struggling lately because innovation is more difficult on tablets and because prices in this market are particularly sensitive. (Unlike iPhones, iPads are not subsidized by carriers.) ????? Munster believes Apple is working on a larger-screen iPad for 2015. The market is too big (320 million units next year, by one estimate), he says, for Apple not to expand its offerings. "We believe that two sizes don't fit all." Also, for branding purposes, an iPad Pro would line up with the MacBook Pro. ????? Munster described Apple television as one of his favorite topics. "It's an understatement that I've been wrong about the timing of the TV," he deadpanned, noting that he first predicted that it would arrive in 2012 (or was it 2011?). But he's not standing down. He believes an Apple television set is going to happen, and that it will arrive in 2014. ????? In what was almost a parody of a tiny-sample Piper Jaffray survey, Munster showed a video of man-on-the-street interviews with 14 consumers, in which seven said they would buy an Apple television, five said no and two said maybe. In a larger survey this summer, the 50% who said they would be interested in buying an iTV fell to 15% when they were told that the set might cost $1,700. ????? By Munster's calculation, a 15% share of the connected TV market would add 18% to Apple's overall revenues. "That's why we think Apple will do it."????? |
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