蘋果iPhone為什么敢賣這么貴？
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????為什么蘋果iPhone定價這么高——比如新款iPhone 5C的定價為549美元，而大多數分析師此前預期這款手機的售價會介于300美元至400美元之間。簡短的回答是：因為蘋果有資本這么干。 ????賀拉斯?德迪歐在其Asmyco博客上寫道：“如果可以的話，任何人都會這么干。這是一個很蹩腳的問題，因此，正確的問題應該是：為什么有人愿意支付這么高的價格呢？ ” ????德迪歐的回答在很大程度上揭示了手機行業（事實上乃至整個互聯網經濟）的相關運營方式。他的關鍵要點如下： ????? 大體而言，消費者并沒有支付這些高昂的價格。支付全價的是那些移動運營商—— 270家手機運營商。 ????? 運營商在做出是否銷售iPhone的決定時，考慮的不是時尚或狂熱粉絲這些因素，而是確鑿的經濟現實——每用戶平均收入（ARPU）、客戶流失、網絡費用、折舊、投資回報率等。 ????? 對于許多運營商（約三分之二）而言，iPhone并不適合自己的商業模式。威瑞森公司（Verizon）多年來一直拒絕接受iPhone。DoCoMo剛剛開始接受iPhone。中國移動（China Mobile）可能很快也會接受iPhone。 ????? 追逐利潤，德迪歐的結論是，運營商之所以向蘋果支付如此昂貴的價格，是因為iPhone有助于讓用戶升級到收入更高的數據業務。 ????? 他寫道：“對于運營商而言，這些是利潤更高的業務。而且補貼模式能夠創造更高的忠誠度，從而降低客戶流失率，建立一個穩定的現金流，然后就可以借助這些現金流進行債務融資，用以網絡升級，同時吸引更多忠實的iPhone用戶。” ????? 好處還不止于此。消費者每月支付的手機費會水漲船高，最終支付iPhone大部分溢價的是消費者自己。這些并沒有逐項列在發票上，但德迪歐估計，在一個補貼計劃中，每月賬單上有10美元到15美元用于支付iPhone費用。 ????? 德迪歐寫道：“因此，在某種程度上，蘋果已經成功地把自己列在許多iPhone用戶的手機月賬單上。手機月賬單是隱藏iPhone費用的一個的地方。” ????? 有些消費者把付費轉嫁視為一種不加掩飾的欺騙，有誤導之嫌。對于用戶而言，iPhone的價值顯而易見，但為iPhone的價值所支付的費用卻不是如此。 ????? 德迪歐寫道：“事實上，整個互聯網以及基于互聯網的所有商業計劃都依賴于一種微妙的‘占便宜’式的誤導。互聯網在兩個不同的市場之間進行套利，一個是每個人都消費但沒有人付費的消費者服務市場，另一個是沒有人消費但所有人都付費的數據市場。” ????
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????The short answer for why Apple (AAPL) charges so much for its iPhones -- e.g. $549 for the new iPhone 5C that most analysts expected would sell for somewhere between $300 and $400 -- is that it can. ????"Anybody would if they could," writes Horace Dediu on his Asmyco blog. "That's a poor question. So the right question should be: why does anybody pay this much?" ????Dediu's answer reveals much about underlying workings of the mobile phone business -- and indeed, the whole Internet economy. His key points: ????? Consumers, by and large, aren't paying those high prices. It's the operators -- 270 mobile phone carriers -- who pay the full freight. ????? The decisions operators make on whether to carry the iPhone are driven not by fashion or fanboyism, but by hard economic realities: ARPU, churn, network costs, depreciation, ROI, etc. ????? For many operators -- about two thirds of them -- the iPhone doesn't fit their business model. Verizon held out for years. DoCoMo just came around. China Mobile may soon as well. ????? Following the money, Dediu concludes that the operators who pay Apple's steep prices do so because the iPhone helps move users to higher revenue data services. ????? "These are more profitable services for operators," he writes, "and the subsidy model creates more loyalty and thus reduces churn and creates a stable cash flow which can then be leveraged through debt to upgrade networks and attract yet more loyal iPhone users." ????? But that's not the end of the money trail. Consumers end up paying most of the iPhone premium in the form of higher monthly phone bills. It's not itemized in the invoice, but Dediu estimates that $10 to $15 of every monthly bill in a subsidized plan goes to paying for the phone. ????? "So in a way," Dediu writes, "Apple has managed to place itself on many people's monthly phone bills. It's a nice place to be." ????? Some consumers see that transfer of payment as a thinly veiled con. It smacks of misdirection. The value of the iPhone is apparent to the user, but the payment for that value is not. ????? "In fact the whole Internet and all business plans that are built on it depend on a subtle 'something for nothing' type of misdirection," Dediu writes. "The Internet runs on the arbitrage between a consumer service market where everybody consumes but nobody pays and a separate data market where nobody consumes and everybody pays." ???? |
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