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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

移動江湖三國大戰的邏輯怪圈

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月18日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
蘋果為什么左右為難?無論是推廉價手機、還是高價手機都會受到責難?相反,谷歌和三星的安卓設備卻左右逢源,大賣特賣?分析人士認為,深層次的原因是因為市場和消費者已經陷入了一個邏輯怪圈。

????
喬布斯的力場反轉

????華爾街為什么不看好蘋果公司(Apple)?本?巴加林在上周的《時代》雜志(Time)科技版上就這個問題撰文闡述了他的“現實扭曲力場”理論,被很多蘋果觀察家(包括筆者)廣泛引述。AppleInsider網站長期撰稿人丹尼爾?伊蘭?迪爾格心直口快,他對這個話題的興趣比任何人都大,他甚至還在個人博客Roughly Drafted Magazine上發表了文章以示支持。

????巴加林的理論是,史蒂夫?喬布斯扭轉乾坤的魔力已經被人逆轉了。巴加林認為,如今華爾街和媒體界普遍認為,蘋果的主要問題是無法迅速生產出足夠多的智能手機和平板電腦來滿足市場的大量需求,蘋果劫數難逃。

????迪爾格進一步完善了巴加林的理論,提出了他眼中的全新逆轉力量的源泉所在——他把它稱為“靈活的自適應邏輯(flexibly adaptive logic)?!保春笪乃f的“邏輯缺陷”——譯注)

????他寫道:“邏輯缺陷(flawgic)并不是硬件或軟件的問題,而是在人們的日常交流中,以口碑傳播的方式,像病毒一樣迅速蔓延,最終深深植根到公眾心目中?!?/p>

????例如:

????“不論蘋果要發布一款價格50美元的廉價款iPhone,還是一款價格2,000美元的豪華款iPhone,都會遭到嚴厲的批評。廉價款會被數落為粗制濫造;而豪華款則會由于高昂的價格遭到嘲笑。

????“由于這種邏輯缺陷,即使低端的安卓產品從各個方面來看都很糟糕,還是被譽為走親民路線的銷量王。它還為谷歌(Google)提供了雙重幫助:使從谷歌眼鏡到Chromebook Pixel這樣整體價值低劣、價格卻貴得離譜的設備免遭詬病,還讓這些設備大賣特賣變得可能。”他說,邏輯缺陷就是這么強大。

????談到邏輯缺陷這種基因如何傳給三星(Samsung)時,迪爾格更是亮出了鮮明的觀點。邏輯缺陷讓三星敢于在聯邦法院上一臉嚴肅地爭辯稱,它自己——而非蘋果——才是專利侵權的受害者。

????迪爾格說:“這就好比一個強奸犯說,發生性行為違背了他本人的意愿。放任這位女士與其他無辜的強奸犯發生強制性行為之前,請把她關起來。另外,我能不能起訴她,要求損害賠償?因為我覺得我的性器官受到了損傷?!?/p>

????這種非凡的、全新的“靈活的自適應邏輯”對谷歌安卓系統的支撐更是有過之而無不及。(財富中文網)

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Ben Bajarin's "reality distortion" theory about why Wall Street doesn't get Apple (AAPL) -- first published in Time Magazine's Techland last week -- has been widely picked up by numerous Apple watchers (including this one). But nobody has had more fun with it than Daniel Eran Dilger, a regular (and relatively straightforward) contributor to AppleInsider who likes to let it fly on Roughly Drafted Magazine, his personal blog.

????Bajarin's theory was that the magic by which Steve Jobs could spin almost anything his way has been reversed; now the perception on the Street and in the media is that Apple -- whose main problem, according to Bajarin, is that it can't make smartphones and tablets fast enough to meet demand -- is doomed.

????Dilger has refined Bajarin's theory and identified what he believes to be the source of the new distortive power. He calls it "flexibly adaptive logic."

????"Flawgic," he writes, "is neither hardware nor software; it's installed directly into public mindshare via a virus spread by talking heads."

????For example:

????"If Apple were to release a cheap iPhone that cost $50 or a luxury one that cost $2000, it would receive intense scrutiny in either direction. The cheap version would be derided as flawed and worthless, while the expensive version would be laughed at for being ludicrously priced.

????"Flawgic allows low end Android products to be hailed as volume sales generators, even if they are terrible products in every way. But it also does double-duty in allowing Google's insanely priced devices, from Glass to Chromebook Pixel, to escape criticism of their inherently poor overall value or the likelihood of their ever selling in meaningful volumes."

????Flawgic is that powerful, he says.

????Dilger really hits his stride when he talks about how the Flawgic gene was passed to Samsung, allowing it to argue with a straight face in federal court that it -- not Apple -- was the patent infringement victim.

????"It's like a rapist saying he had penetrated against his own will," writes Dilger, "and please lock this woman up before she is allowed to have forcible sex with other innocent rapists. And can I sue her for damages? I think I hurt my penis."

????There's more of the same at Google's Android powered by remarkable new "flexibly adaptive logic"

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