????中國在日前美國總統大選的第二場和第三場辯論中成了重要議題，而且第二場比第三場更明顯，盡管第三場的主題才是外交政策。奧巴馬和羅姆尼在中國問題上都強調了美中關系相互競爭的本質，以及需要讓中國遵守游戲規則，但誰也沒有給出多少未來政策的細節。而且，兩人都強調同樣的設想：“如果中國遵守規則，我們愿意與之成為伙伴。”這與克林頓政府執政中期以來采取的方式保持了一致。

????我們從羅姆尼那里聽到的最具體表態是：“從上任第一天起，我就要給中國貼上貨幣操縱國的標簽。”這表明，他將因人民幣被低估對中國實施制裁或懲罰。或許如此，但還不一定。在他的表態和真正實施制裁之間還有好幾個環節，不能一蹴而就。因此，這種“明確”的政策正是羅姆尼行事方式的鮮明寫照。實際上，我們對于羅姆尼將采取怎樣的中國政策或世界其他地區政策完全一無所知。

????奧巴馬的立場似乎相對清晰。他將延續過去四年所采取的政策，特別是自從2010年至2011年奧巴馬政府將“重心”轉移到亞洲以來的政策。奧巴馬將繼續尋求世界貿易組織（WTO）的幫助。因為正如他所說，美國在這方面一直相當成功。按照筆者的統計，美國在日內瓦提出的、針對中國的貿易仲裁，10項有9項都是美國獲勝。他對泛太平洋伙伴關系（Trans-Pacific Partnerhsip，簡稱TPP）也出人意料地坦誠。第三場辯論中，他沒有提到TPP。但他說，美國正在組織地區內國家實施一項高標準的貿易和投資標準協定，這應當會給中國帶來更多壓力時，其實說的就是TPP。這段概述或許是美國政府首次在公開場合對TPP協議作出如此明確地表述，但人們可以明白為什么奧巴馬選擇在競選時期這么干。或許他已得出結論，中國絕不可能簽約，至少一開始不會，因此，比以前更明確地探討TPP目標并沒有什么害處。

????換個話題。2011年，中國銷售了不到9,000輛電動或混合電動汽車。當時，筆者評論稱，對于一個據稱非常希望推廣綠色能源的國家，這是一個多么可怕的數據。結果狀況卻越變越糟糕。財新網（Caixin）的數據顯示，2012年前三季度，中國僅售出了235輛電動汽車。這基本上就是零，表明這個行業沒有獲得任何支持。另據報道，中國出口了7,500輛電動汽車。如果真是這樣的話，這個行業模式與太陽能行業一模一樣：95%以上的產品用于出口。這意味著太陽能和電動汽車并非中國國內能源或環保政策的核心內容，而是全球貿易戰略的一部分。

????譯者：早稻米

????China featured prominently in the 2nd and 3rd US presidential debates, in fact, more in the 2nd than the 3rd, even though the latter was on foreign policy. Although there has been handringing in Beijing because President Obama and Governor Romney have emphasized the competitive nature of the relationship and the need to have China play by the rules, neither has given many specifics about policy going forward. Also, both have used essentially the same formulation, "We want to be partners if China plays by the rules." That is essentially consistent with the approach taken since the middle of the Clinton Administration.

????The most detail we got from Romney is that, "On Day One I will label China a currency manipulator." That implies he will institute sanctions or penalties against China because the RMB is undervalued. Maybe, but not necessarily. There are several steps that have to occur between his declaration and sanctions, and none are automatic. So this moment of supposed policy precision is just another example of Romney being Romney. In fact, we have absolute zero idea what Romney's policies toward China -- or essentially anywhere in the world -- will be.

????President Obama's position seems clearer. He'll continue his policies of the last 4 years, particularly since the administration adopted its "pivot" to Asia in 2010/11. Obama will continue to go to the WTO, since as he noted, the US has been so successfl there. By my count, it has won 9 of 10 cases against China in Geneva. He also was perhaps unexpectedly honest about the Trans-Pacific Partnerhsip (TPP). He did not mention these words last night, but when he said the US is organizing countriesi in the region to adopt an agreement on trade and investment principles that sets high standards and that should put additional pressure on China, he meant TPP. This framing gives the agreement a sharper edge than perhaps the administration has been suggesting in public, but one can see why Obama would do so in the context of the campaign. He may have also concluded that there is no way China would ever sign on, at least initially, so there's no harm in being more explicit about the TPP's goals.

????Switching gears, in 2011, China sold less than 9,000 electric or hybrid vehicles. At the time I remarked how this was a horrible record for a country supposedly so intent on promoting green energy. Things have only gotten worse. According to Caixin, in the first 3 quarters of 2012, China has sold only 235 electric cars. That is essentially zero and means there is no support for this sector whatsoever. China reportedly did export 7,500 electric cars. If so, we are seeing the same pattern as in the solar sector: export over 95% of production. This means solar and electric vehicles are part of a global trade strategy but not central to domestic energy or conservation policy.