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????說到這里就不得不提華盛頓了。有些人曾希望一個存在分歧的政府能防止政界在增減稅收和管制力度方面不至于走向極端，但大家從未想到過會是這樣嚴重的分裂。我們的政府已經不能說是存在分歧，而是功能失調。而且它來得很不是時候，眼下我們都承受不起這樣的局面。 ????壞消息鋪天蓋地，投資者應該如何斟酌投資？盡你所能，選擇自己看好的投資項目——不要選擇時下流行但已大幅上漲的投資項目。 ????三年前，我在《財富》雜志2009年的投資者指南中曾說過，對于那些具有財務耐力和目標投資時限為5-7年的人們來說，買美股真的是一個好主意。我認為當時要得出這個結論并不困難——只是在當時的一片慘淡中并不容易有勇氣去這樣做。當時標準普爾500指數是870點，2009年3月降至673點，如今已較低點反彈近一倍。 ????但由于如今美股已較三年前大幅反彈，如今風險提高了。三年前我認為美股不容錯過，但現如今太難講了。 ????好吧。在給出“具體該投資些什么”的建議之前，讓我先說說“不該投資什么”吧（除非你是專業人士，如果是這樣你應該不需要我的建議）。美國國債？忘了它吧，除非你想套牢幾年，換取低得可笑的利息，并愿意承擔大幅虧損。目前長期利率處于人為低位，因為美聯儲一直在大量買入長期國債以壓低利率，同時尋求安全保障的資本也涌入了美國國債。但終有一天，美聯儲會修正這種行為，屆時避險資本就會撤離，利率就會上升。 ????簡單舉個例子，來看看加息、甚至是小幅加息，會會導致什么情況。假設持有當前收益率3%的30年期美國國債。如果從現在開始利率升至每年4%，你持有的美國國債市值將下降17個點——幾乎相當于6年的利息。反過來，如果你的美國國債市值要增加17個點，利率必須要降至2.2%。出現這種情況的概率有多少呢？ ????我的同事肖恩?塔利在去年的投資者指南中早已說過這番話。我當時完全同意他的觀點。但由于前文提到的國債購買行為，長期美國國債的收益率自那以來呈現下降趨勢，價格上漲。事實上，截至11月份的十二個月，長期美國國債是費城投資管理公司Aronson Johnson Ortiz跟蹤的48類資產中表現最好的。巴克萊長期美國國債指數的回報率高達21.3%，是同期美股大盤回報率7.1%的三倍。但要延續超過20%的回報率，長期美國國債的利率必須在幾年內跌至接近零的水平。這不太可能。 |
????That brings us to Washington. Those of us who longed for divided government to stop politicians in our nation's capital from going to extremes in either cutting or boosting taxes and regulatory levels, never wanted things to be this divided. We don't have divided government, we have dysfunctional government, at a time we can ill afford it. ????With all this bad stuff going on, how do you wrap your head around investing? By doing your best to pick investments whose odds are in your favor -- as opposed to investments that are popular and have already had a big run-up. ????Three years ago I said in Fortune's 2009 Investor's Guide that buying the U.S. stock market was a really good idea for someone with financial staying power and a five- to seven-year time horizon. I considered that an easy call -- though it wasn't easy to summon up the nerve to do it, given the gloom and doom prevailing at the time. The S&P was at 870 when I wrote, fell to 673 in March 2009, and has since almost doubled. ????But because the broad U.S. stock market is substantially higher than it was three years ago, it's riskier. Then, I considered it a can't-miss. Now it's a who-knows? ????Okay. Before I tell you what you might consider doing with your money, let me tell you what I think you shouldn't do (unless you're a pro, in which case you presumably need no advice from me). Treasury bonds? Forget them, unless you want to lock up your money for years at laughably low rates and are willing to suffer substantial losses. Long rates are artificially low because the Fed has been buying tons of long-term securities to force down rates, and safety-seeking capital has poured into Treasuries too. But someday the Fed will dial back, the flight capital will leave, and rates will rise. ????Let me give you a small example of what even a modest rate rise could do. Say you own a 30-year Treasury currently yielding 3%. If rates rise to 4% a year from now, your bond's market value will drop 17 points -- almost six years of interest. Rates have to fall to 2.2% for your bond's value to rise 17 points. What are the odds of that happening? ????In last year's Investor's Guide, my colleague Shawn Tully said what I'm saying now. I totally agreed with him. But because of the aforementioned purchases, yields on long Treasuries have fallen since then, and their market values have risen. In fact, for the 12 months ended in November, long-term Treasuries were the best-performing asset class of the 48 tracked by Aronson Johnson Ortiz, a Philadelphia money manager. The Barclay's long Treasury index returned a huge 21.3%, triple the 7.1% return of all U.S. stocks. But for 20%-plus returns to continue, long Treasury rates have to fall close to zero within a few years. Not likely. |
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