金融亂世中的投資之道
|
????“現(xiàn)在該把錢投在什么地方？”《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）每年在投資者指南（Investor's Guide）中提出的問(wèn)題一直都讓人頗費(fèi)思量。答案自然因人而異——你的財(cái)務(wù)狀況，你的投資目標(biāo)，你的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受度，計(jì)劃投資時(shí)限和耐力。所有這些只有投資者本人才知道。 ????但今年要答好這個(gè)問(wèn)題尤其困難，因?yàn)槿蚪鹑谑袌?chǎng)比2008-09年美國(guó)市場(chǎng)暴跌、擠提擔(dān)憂蔓延之時(shí)還要?jiǎng)邮帯．?dāng)時(shí)，似乎只有美國(guó)麻煩重重。現(xiàn)如今，不只美國(guó)還沒(méi)有走出困境，歐元區(qū)很多大國(guó)也陷入了大麻煩。日本的問(wèn)題由來(lái)已久，嚴(yán)重程度比我們只有有過(guò)之而無(wú)不及。還有，中國(guó)——但誰(shuí)知道那里到底是個(gè)什么情況。又或者它的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告到底有多可靠？ ????雖然時(shí)不時(shí)地會(huì)有段好日子，但美國(guó)的情況并沒(méi)有看上去那么美好。當(dāng)形勢(shì)這么不確定的時(shí)候，一般建議都是尋找避風(fēng)港，以應(yīng)對(duì)通脹和未來(lái)美元幾乎確定無(wú)疑的貶值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一類傳統(tǒng)的“安全”投資是債券，特別是美國(guó)國(guó)債。另一類避風(fēng)港則是海外股票，海外公司共同基金以及（對(duì)于更具冒險(xiǎn)精神和更成熟的投資者而言）外匯投資。接下來(lái)是大宗商品和“硬資產(chǎn)”，比如金、銀、銅、石油和鉆石，普遍認(rèn)為如果美元繼續(xù)貶值、通脹繼續(xù)上升，這些商品和資產(chǎn)都能保值。 ????如今，上述避風(fēng)港——債券、海外股票、外匯和大宗商品——無(wú)一能給人哪怕一絲一毫的安全感。但不要絕望。我有一項(xiàng)策略或許管用，而且我自己已經(jīng)付諸實(shí)施了。稍后我們將談到這項(xiàng)策略。 ????要想知道投資世界已變得如何之瘋狂，看看美國(guó)股市就可見(jiàn)一斑（當(dāng)然，前提是你的神經(jīng)足夠強(qiáng)大，能承受這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的跌宕起伏）。感恩節(jié)那周的四個(gè)交易日內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)一改往日長(zhǎng)假前的昏昏欲睡之態(tài)，罕見(jiàn)地出現(xiàn)了大跌，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)重挫了近5%。但在接下來(lái)一周卻又上漲了7.4%。市場(chǎng)就像過(guò)山車一樣。 ????前一天，歐洲四面楚歌——?dú)W元注定將瓦解，大量歐洲銀行也岌岌可危，這些就像金融界的蘑菇云一樣，必然會(huì)給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)劇烈沖擊。市場(chǎng)慘淡，人人自危。然而第二天卻又傳來(lái)一個(gè)據(jù)說(shuō)可行的解決方案。市場(chǎng)隨即飆升。但是誰(shuí)能知道明天或者下周會(huì)是什么情況？ ????要想預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國(guó)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)，也已幾乎成為了一項(xiàng)不可能完成的任務(wù)。美國(guó)的大型企業(yè)——也就是那些總部位于美國(guó)的大公司，“美國(guó)的”一詞意味著這些企業(yè)對(duì)這個(gè)國(guó)家仍感到有一定的歸屬感和責(zé)任感——總體利潤(rùn)和現(xiàn)金水平均創(chuàng)新高，但在美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)沒(méi)有進(jìn)行太多招聘。伙計(jì)們，真得好好謝謝你們。 |
????It's never easy to answer the question that Fortune poses in its annual Investor's Guide: Where should you put your money now? The response, of course, depends on your individual situation -- your finances, your goals, your tolerance for risk, your time horizon, and your staying power. All of which only you can know. ????This year it's far more difficult than usual for anyone to answer this question, because the financial world is even more unstable than it was in 2008-09, when U.S. markets were in free fall and fear ran rampant. Back then, only the U.S. seemed scarily messed up. Now not only is the U.S. still messed up, but substantial countries in the eurozone are mega-messed up. Japan has serious long-term problems, even worse than ours. And China -- well, who knows what really goes on there, or how reliable its statistics and company financial reports are? ????Despite good days here and there, things in the U.S. aren't all that wonderful. At a time when things are so uncertain here, the standard advice is to seek safety, and to protect yourself against inflation and the almost certain future decline of the dollar. One traditional "safe" investment is bonds, especially Treasury bonds. Another haven is foreign stocks or foreign-company mutual funds, and -- for the more venturesome and sophisticated -- foreign currencies. Then there are commodities and "hard assets" such as gold, silver, copper, oil, and diamonds that will presumably hold their value if the dollar's decline continues and inflation rises. ????None of those options -- bonds, foreign stocks and currencies, and commodities -- feel even remotely safe these days. But don't despair. I do have one strategy that you may find useful and that I've adopted myself. We'll get to it in a bit. ????For an example of how wild and crazy the investment world has become, take a look at the U.S. stock market (assuming that you have a stomach strong enough to withstand the lurching). For the four trading days of Thanksgiving week, a normally sleepy holiday period rarely associated with turkey markets, the S&P 500 fell almost 5%. The following week it rose 7.4%. Whipsaw City. ????One day the news out of Europe is dire -- the euro is doomed, as are many European banks, with toxic fallout certain to hit the U.S. economy like a radioactive financial cloud. Markets swoon. Panic reigns. The next day there's a supposed fix. Markets soar. Tomorrow or next week, who knows? ????The U.S. economy, especially the job market, is also almost impossible to predict. Big American companies -- make that big companies based in the U.S., because "American" implies that the companies feel some loyalty to this country -- are collectively showing record profits and record levels of cash, but aren't doing much hiring here. Thanks, guys. |
相關(guān)稿件
最新文章