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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

iPad有望成為書包終結者

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月02日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
調查顯示:16%的學校技術總監預計,5年之內,每名學生都會配備平板電腦。

????圖片來源:Piper Jaffray?

??? 無論是在蘋果(Apple)零售店統計顧客人數,還是在大型賣場Mall of America里詢問手機用戶,也無論所作的調查是否重要,投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩?明斯特堪稱是小型問卷調查領域的大師。

????他的最新動作是對25名教育界的技術總監進行了問卷調查,當時他們正在一間教室就集成技術舉行會議。明斯特在周一致客戶的報告中寫道:“雖然調查樣本很小,但他們代表了美國教育界IT領域的決策層。”

????明斯特有何發現?具體如下:

????? 所有學校都在部署或測試iPad。沒有人部署或測試Android平板電腦。

????? 他們的學校中,平均每10名學生配備有1臺電腦。

????? 將近一半人(12)認為,最終目標是為每位學生配備1臺電腦。有兩位技術總監的學校已經實現這一目標。

????? 超過三分之一的人(9)計劃將為每名學生配備1臺平板電腦。其中有一位技術總監所在的學校已做到這點。

????不過,考慮到美國學校面臨的諸多難題,以此得出教育改革的宏觀愿景未免有些牽強。(明斯特引用了蘋果前零售業務主管羅恩?約翰遜的話,現在的學生可能是“最后一代背書包的學生”。)

????教育界對iPad的偏愛完全壓倒谷歌(Google)Android平板電腦,反映出蘋果巨大的先發優勢,在這點上,明斯特的看法也許是對的。他寫道:

????“我們在教育領域還發現一個趨勢(同樣也存在于企業領域):學生們(或雇員們)都很熟悉蘋果設備,他們的需求導致所在機構選擇提供蘋果設備。”

????以下是明斯特調查結果詳細情況:

????Whether counting heads at the Apple Store or buttonholing cell phone users at the Mall of America, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster is the master of the small survey that may or may not be significant.

????His latest: A survey of 25 educational technology directors at a conference on integrating technology in the classroom. "While our sample is small," he writes in a note to clients issued Monday, "so is the population of IT decision makers in the education field in the US."

????And what did he discover? Among his findings:

????? 100% were testing or deploying iPads in their schools. 0% were testing or deploying Android tablets

????? Their schools currently have an average of one computer for every 10 students

????? Nearly half (12) expect to eventually deploy one computer per child; two of their schools already do

????? More than a third (9) expect to deploy one tablet per child; one of them already does

????Given the huge problems facing America's schools, it's a slender thread on which to base a vision of broad educational reform. (Munster quotes outgoing Apple retail chief Ron Johnson, who has suggested that the current crop of students might be "the last generation with backpacks.")

????But Munster is probably correct that the overwhelming preference for iPads over tablets running Google's (GOOG) Android reflects the power of Apple's (AAPL) first mover advantage. He writes:

????"We also see a trend in education (which is mirrored in the enterprise) that familiarity with Apple devices among students (or employees) is causing a demand pull within institutions to also provide Apple devices."

????Below: The details of Munster's survey results.

????圖片來源:Piper Jaffray

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