????數據：蘋果公司，源自J.P.摩根
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????摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）的馬克?莫斯科維茨是華爾街上最沉得住氣的分析師之一，日前，他發表了蘋果公司觀察人士一致認同的觀點：該公司將發布兩款而非一款iPhone——iPhone 5以及莫斯科維茨所說的iPhone 4+。 ????莫斯科維茨在周一致客戶的報告中描述了其“研究”發現。此處引用如下： ????? 我們目前預計將有兩款新iPhone面世。我們的研究顯示，其中之一是iPhone 5，它更輕更薄，能同時支持GSM和CDMA等多種制式，是一部“世界性”的智能手機。另一款手機是iPhone 4+，它以目前的iPhone 4為基礎，但進行了一些細微改進，將定位于中端市場并瞄準中國客戶。至于目前的iPhone 4，我們預計它將和3GS一樣，主打低端市場。 ????? 新款iPhone 4+將面向中國市場。我們的研究顯示，蘋果將和一家或多家中國運營商合作推出iPhone 4+。我們認為這款面向中國的iPhone可能正在開發中，但這并不意味著這款手機是中國地區獨享的。仍然會有別的情況出現，特別是在中端市場。我們的觀點是，雖然專為一個區域的少數幾家無線運營商定制設備存在風險，但無論如何，中國市場的龐大規模足以抵消這種劣勢。目前，中國聯通（China Unicom）是蘋果iPhone 4在中國的獨家經銷商。 ????? 蘋果將與數家大型運營商合作，從而迎來另新一輪的大爆炸式增長。在6月份的財季，蘋果增加了42家運營商，他們對蘋果本季度遠遠超出預料的2,030萬部iPhone出貨量做出了不小貢獻。雖然我們認為，今后蘋果運營商數量的季度性增量不會出現這么大的增長，但幾家潛在的大型運營商帶來的影響同樣不可小覷。中國電信（China Telecom，一億用戶）、斯普林特（Sprint）（5,200萬用戶）、德國電信美國公司（T-Mobile USA）（3,300萬用戶）等都是現成的例子。 ????? 此外，我們不認為iPad 3將于今年上市，蘋果一點都不著急。其它平板電腦跌跌撞撞。摩托羅拉移動（Motorola Mobility）和RIM的最新產品讓人大失所望。我們也曾趕在索尼（Sony）平板電腦發布前觀摩了其演示情況。但它并沒有給我們留下什么深刻的印象。我們認為，索尼平板電腦的傾斜式或斜面式背部設計使其看來更像一摞僵硬的、折疊起來的紙張，而不像21世紀的個人電子消費產品。” ????莫斯科維茨寫道：“如果蘋果成功開拓與新的大型運營商的合作，中國移動（China Mobile）和中國電信分別擁有大約6億和1億用戶，斯普林特和德國電信美國公司則擁有5,200萬和3,300萬用戶，它們的效果應該和6月份季度蘋果運營商數量大幅增加的效果相當。換句話說，我們相信在中短期內，iPhone季度銷量有望給投資者帶來更多實實在在的驚喜。總之，假如蘋果能在今秋推出兩款新iPhone并在美國及中國與新的運營商達成合作，我們將見證一場‘大爆炸’。” ????莫斯科維茨堅持其每股525美元的價格目標。本周一中午，蘋果的盤中交易價創下新高，突破了每股410美元。 ????譯者：項航 |
????J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz, one of the last holdouts on Wall Street, has come around to what has become conventional wisdom among Apple (AAPL) watchers: That the company is set to release not one but two iPhones, an iPhone 5 and what Moskowitz calls an iPhone 4-plus. ????In a report to clients Monday he describes what his "research" has turned up. I quote: ????? We now expect two new iPhones. Our research indicates that there will be an iPhone 5 based on a lighter, thinner form factor that is GSM + CDMA capable, i.e., a "world-mode" smartphone. A second device (4-plus) based on the current iPhone 4 but with some minor improvements could target the midrange and focus on China. As for the current iPhone 4, we expect it to subsume 3GS as the lower-end offering. ????? A new iPhone 4-plus could target China. Our research indicates Apple could release an iPhone 4-plus, targeting one or more China network carriers. While we think a China-focused iPhone could be in the works, it is not likely to be exclusive to the region. There could be other use cases, particularly in the midrange. Either way, the size of the China opportunity overcomes any potential drawbacks of making a specially-designed device for a few wireless carriers in one region, in our view. In China, Apple currently sells its iPhone 4 only through China Unicom. ????? Expecting another potential big bang with a few big carriers. Apple added 42 carriers in the June quarter, which partly contributed to the bigger-than-expected iPhone units of 20.3 million. While we do not expect a similar QoQ increase in the number of carriers going forward, we think that the size of the next potential new carriers can have a big impact. Examples include China Telecom (100M subs), Sprint (52M subs), and T-Mobile USA (33M subs). ????? Separately, we do not expect iPad 3 this year, but there's no rush. The other tablet entrants have stumbled. Offerings by MMI and RIM have been the latest disappointments. Also, we had the opportunity to demo Sony's tablet before its launch. We were not impressed. Sony's tablet lacks the refined, sleek feel of the iPad. We felt that the sloping or bezel-like back of the Sony tablet feels more like petrified, folded-over pages than a 21st century consumer electronics device. ????"If penetrated," he writes, "China Mobile and China Telecom with approximately 600 million and 100 million subscribers, alongside Sprint and T-Mobile USA with 52 million and 33 million subscribers, stand to have an effect tantamount to the big increase in the number of carriers exhibited in the June quarter. In other words, we believe that investors should start to prepare for more positive surprises related to the quarterly run rate of iPhones in the near- to mid-term. In summary, we would expect such a big bang if Apple introduces two new iPhones this fall and penetrates the untapped U.S. and China carriers." ????Moskowitz is sticking with his price target of $525 a share. At midday Monday, Apple was setting new all-time intraday highs above $410 a share. |
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