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????本周有多篇報道稱，私募股權公司銀湖合伙基金（Silver Lake Partners ）和Andreessen Horowitz可能有意收購麻煩不斷的互聯網公司雅虎（Yahoo）。上周炒掉首席執行官之后，雅虎尤其顯得“群龍無首”。 ????這兩家私募股權公司最近一次聯手是從eBay手中收購Skype公司的多數股權后迅速轉手，將其出售給微軟（Microsoft）以獲得豐厚的回報（至少他們的算盤是這樣打的，因為目前該交易尚未結束）。換句話說，他們對共同投資和拯救互聯網品牌并不陌生。 ????然而，即便果真想收購雅虎，它們一定具備這個實力嗎？ ????雅虎目前的市值有190多億。其中近一半來自于其持有阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group）40%的股權，而銀湖和Andreessen Horowitz 據稱收購之后會考慮出售這部分股權。我們假設它們有辦法應付收購阿里巴巴股權所需的約80億美元（低于阿里巴巴此前拒絕的95億美元的回購要約）。 ????因此，他們還需要填補110億美元的缺口。而且還可能存在一定程度的溢價，我們假設溢價比率為適中的9%，所以實際上它們最終需要融資120億美元。 ????去年，市場信息服務S&P LCD公司稱，價值超過10億美元的杠桿收購交易的平均股權比例為39.28%。雖然信貸市場開始有所趨緊，但我們還是使用這個數字。這意味著銀湖和Andreessen Horowitz公司將需要投入47.1億美元。 ????我們假設為了收購雅虎，每家公司愿意投入占其目前基金比例高達15%的金額。這或許可能成為它們做出的最大單筆投資，而且有可能還需要有限合伙人的批準，因為單筆投資的上限通常為10%。不過，顯然雅虎項目將是個不成即敗的交易。因此，兩家公司合計將出資約15億美元。也就是說，還差32億美元。 ????到了這個時候，銀湖和Andreessen Horowitz公司 就需要拿出點創意了。尋求現有有限合伙人共同投資是一個選擇。假設這么做能再籌到5億美元。而共同投資機構投資者【比如，在收購Skype中伸出援手的加拿大退休基金（Canadian pension fund ）】也再貢獻5億美元。此外，還可以引入其他大型私募股權公司，盡管這有可能抵消有限合伙人共同投資所做出的貢獻，因為銀湖的很多投資人可能也投資了百事通（Blackstone）和KKR公司，他們不會愿意對雅虎項目重復投資。 ????現在的解決方案將是與雅虎部分大股東合作收購。可以考慮聯合創始人楊致遠等個人股東以及美國資本集團（The Capital Group）和美國道富（State Street）等機構股東，讓他們持有剩下的11%，這樣才能大功告成。 ????沒錯，這些任務沒一個是能輕松擺平的。對銀湖和Andreessen Horowitz公司來說，收購雅虎少數股權并推動重組該公司（如分析師亨利?布羅吉特的建議）可能是一個更好的選擇。此外，考慮到微軟手頭有500多億現金（Skype項目完成之后，這個數字可能要低一點），它最終出手收購雅虎的可能性總是存在的。微軟也有可能最終與這兩家私募股權公司合作進行收購。 ????但我的觀點是，銀湖買得起雅虎。至少理論上是如此。 |
????There have been several reports this week that private equity firms Silver Lake Partners and Andreessen Horowitz may offer to buy Yahoo (YHOO), the oft-troubled Internet company that has been particularly rudderless since firing its CEO last week. ????The two firms most recently teamed up to buy a majority stake in Skype from eBay (EBAY), and then quickly turned around and sold the entire thing to Microsoft (MSFT) at a heady profit (or at least agreed to do so, as that deal hasn't yet closed). In other words, they are no strangers to either co-investments or Internet brand revivals. ????But even if they want to buy Yahoo, can they afford it? ????Yahoo currently has a market cap of just over $19 billion. Or that, approximately half is believed to be the value of Yahoo's 40% stake in China's Alibaba Group, which Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz would reportedly seek to sell off. So let's assume they can get around $8 billion for the Alibaba position, a discount based on Alibaba's previous rejection of a $9.5 billion buyback offer. ????That leaves us with an $11 billion hole. But there would have to be some sort of premium, which we're going to put at a modest 9%. So they really need $12 billion. ????Last year, S&P LCD reported that the average equity portion of a $1 billion+ leveraged buyout was 39.28%. Credit markets have begun tightening up a bit, but let's stick with that figure. It means that Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz would be responsible for $4.71 billion. ????Now let's presume that each firm is willing to commit a whopping 15% of their current fund to the effort. It likely would be the largest single investment each shop has ever made -- and possibly require some limited partner approval, since 10% of often the limit -- but clearly Yahoo would be a make-or-break sort of deal. Combined, that would be around $1.5 billion. Or, put another way, $3.2 billion short. ????At this point, Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz need to get creative. One option is to tap existing limited partners for co-investments. Let's say that adds another $500 million. And then another $500 million comes in from institutional co-investors, like the Canadian pension fund that helped out on Skype. You also could add another large private equity firm, although that could eat away at the LP co-invest (since many Silver Lake investors also are in Blackstone, KKR, etc... and wouldn't want to quadruple down on Yahoo). ????The solution now is to partner on the buyout with select, large holders of Yahoo stock. Maybe individuals like co-founder Jerry Yang and institutions like The Capital Group and State Street. Let them hold the remaining 11%, thus getting us to the magic number. ????Yes, all of this would be pretty complicated. And perhaps a better solution is for Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz to simply buy a minority stake and help reorganize the company from that position (as suggested by Henry Blodget). And there always is the chance that Microsoft will finally pull the trigger, given that it has more than $50 billion of cash just lying around (a bit less once Skype closes). Or that Microsoft will somehow partner with the PE firms. ????But my point is that Silver Lake could afford Yahoo. At least in theory. |
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