蘋果魔力消失的5大先兆
????iPod海報。資料來源：蘋果公司
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????蘋果（Apple）失去舵手，未來將會怎樣？史蒂夫?喬布斯辭職后，鮑勃?霍夫曼對這家公司的命運(yùn)并不看好。 ????這位來自舊金山的廣告公司高管開設(shè)有博客“廣告非常人”（The Ad Contrarian），并編撰同名手冊，總結(jié)自己對廣告業(yè)的見解。他在博客中歸納了時下業(yè)界對蘋果的主流看法：“喬布斯建立了強(qiáng)大的企業(yè)文化，為公司網(wǎng)羅了一批有頭腦的員工，并在公司內(nèi)部貫徹了一種獨(dú)到的思維方式，這一切足以延續(xù)蘋果的輝煌。”但霍夫曼本人對這種說法并不買賬。 ????霍夫曼堅信，天賦是不可傳遞的。他認(rèn)為，未來幾年，喬布斯開創(chuàng)的事業(yè)將繼續(xù)保持發(fā)展的勢頭，蘋果公司將延續(xù)輝煌，但之后，正如他寫道：“智慧的光芒將會逐漸黯淡。” ????他的觀點(diǎn)正確與否？我們該如何判斷？請留意蘋果的廣告。霍夫曼認(rèn)為，喬布斯不僅是技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的先知，也是同時代中最優(yōu)秀的廣告人。喬布斯離開后，蘋果將被“一雙毫無生氣的手牢牢握住方向盤”，最早的跡象將出現(xiàn)在蘋果的廣告中。 ????他說，應(yīng)該引起注意的跡象包括下面五種：（引述自霍夫曼的博客） ????1. 逐漸變化的品牌理念：蘋果公司的品牌構(gòu)建是自上而下的。也就是說，由產(chǎn)品來定義品牌。蘋果公司的廣告基本上都是為特定的產(chǎn)品量身定做，而非品牌本身（我承認(rèn)曾經(jīng)有過“不同凡響”系列廣告，但那不過是曇花一現(xiàn)）。請留意，這種傳統(tǒng)會慢慢流失。 ????2. 廣告代理商的變更：多年以來，在喬布斯的強(qiáng)勢領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下，公司的營銷人員被迫退居二線，而現(xiàn)在，他們可能突然沖到前臺。雖然他們不敢公然對抗喬布斯留下的理念，但在代理商層面做手腳同樣可以達(dá)到目的。 ????3. 扭曲的企劃邏輯：留意針對消費(fèi)者而非蘋果產(chǎn)品的廣告。注意在線“互動”這種愚蠢的把戲。或者留意公司對社交媒體的迎合。 ????4. 廣告形式復(fù)雜化:很大程度上來說，蘋果公司廣告的卓越之處就在于它的簡潔。留意蘋果是否會推出復(fù)雜的理念，或者在同一廣告中同時宣傳多款產(chǎn)品。 ????5. 廣告渠道:蘋果公司對網(wǎng)絡(luò)媒體的使用向來較為謹(jǐn)慎。公司大部分廣告主要集中在傳統(tǒng)媒介——電視、平面和戶外等。蘋果公司是否會突然隨大流，選擇新的媒介？請睜大眼睛看清楚。 ????霍夫曼建議：“一旦庫比蒂諾（蘋果總部——譯注）出現(xiàn)了上述任何一種跡象，別猶豫，趕快拋售手里的蘋果股票。” ????翻譯：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓 |
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????Bob Hoffman is pessimistic about the future of Apple (AAPL) without Steve Jobs at the helm. ????The San Francisco-based advertising executive who writes a blog called The Ad Contrarian and a slim volume of aphorisms by the same name doesn't buy the consensus that, as he puts it, "Jobs built a strong culture, hired smart people, and taught a way of thinking that will serve Apple well in the future." ????Hoffman believes that genius is, in a word, nontransferable. He thinks it likely that Apple will continue to shine for a few years while the initiatives that Jobs started are still in the pipeline, but then, as he puts it, "the startling brilliance will slowly fade." ????How will we tell if he's right or wrong? Watch the ads. Jobs was not just a technological visionary, says Hoffman. He was also the best ad man of his generation. The first clues that "dull hands have grabbed the wheel" will show in Apple's advertising. ????Watch, he says, for these five tell-tale signs: (I quote) ????1. Creeping Brandism: The Apple brand was built bottom-up. That is, the products defined the brand. Virtually every Apple ad was about a product, not the brand (okay, there was "Think Different" but that didn't last.) Keep an eye out for the erosion of this discipline. ????2. Agency change: Vapid marketing people relegated to the background all these years by Jobs' dominance may suddenly start flexing. They wouldn't dare contradict Jobs' legacy, but they could accomplish the same thing by undermining the agency. ????3. The Tortured Logic of Account Planning: Look for ads about you the consumer instead of Apple products. Look for moronic online "engagement" gimmicks. Or look for social media pandering. ????4. Complications: Part of the brilliance of Apple advertising has been its simplicity. Keep an eye out for complicated ideas or ads with more than one product. ????5. Media: Apple has used online media sparingly. The preponderance of its advertising has been conducted in traditional media -- TV, print, and outdoor. Watch to see if Apple suddenly starts going all trendy and new age in its media choices. ????"If you start seeing any of these signs coming out of Cupertino," Hoffman advises, "sell your shares." |
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