|
????右圖是一張記錄了蘋果（Apple）36天以來股價的走勢圖，每當我看到類似之圖表，我都會想起杰森?施瓦茨的那篇關于股市的文章“空頭追捧蘋果的七大理由”（Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It）。在我看來，該文辛辣至極，實屬財經新聞網站The Street 2009年所刊文章之精品。此文精華可以兩句概之： ????“如果你能壓低一支好股票的價格”施瓦茨寫到，“那么股價回升之日就是你盆滿缽盈之時。如同一把彈弓，拉的越緊，射的越遠。” ????盡管蘋果的銷售業績、盈利和負債表都是業內其他企業可望而不可及的，但蘋果股價在6月份前20天里卻下跌超過32美元（跌幅9.3%），然而散戶們認為蘋果的基本面良好，再加上施瓦茨有言在先，即便蘋果股價下跌，他們仍愿為蘋果慷慨解囊。 ????蘋果，正如施瓦茨所說，是對沖基金和相關機構最鐘愛的搖錢樹。他們持有蘋果超過70%的股份。離蘋果公布業績報告還有不到兩周的時間，關于蘋果盈利將創歷史新高的博弈顯然有利可圖，精明的基金經理們對這一點更是了如指掌。如果他們六月初拋售了蘋果的股票，唯一的原因是因為他們計劃在蘋果7月19日業績報告公布前再把這些籌碼搶回來。 ????施瓦茨在2009年12月19日發表的文章中對此做出了詳細的解釋。點擊這里可閱覽此文章。該文在The Street網站上分7頁發表，如果你無法忍受那慢如蝸牛的網站加載速度——你可以閱讀我們于12月20日刊載的簡報，內容如下： ????1.蘋果是市場的領頭羊。蘋果這支股票在股市地位顯赫，一呼百應。這種影響力也使得蘋果的股票成為了多頭和空頭交易的聚寶盆。然而對于像Research In Motion【（RIMM）黑莓手機生產商——譯注】或花旗（Citigroup，C）這種更容易打壓的對象，同樣的策略卻無法產生類似的滾雪球效應。 ????2.蘋果股總是會反彈的。長遠來看，蘋果公司的基本面必將推動其股價走高，但對沖基金希望實現最大的投資回報。做空一支好股票，然后在低位快速買回，這比一直持股待漲要賺得更多。 ????3. 蘋果股票的可預見性降低了空頭交易的風險。下一代iPod、iPone和iMac何時上市無人不曉。蘋果股也因此成為了典型的“事件驅動型”股票。一旦風平浪靜，該股走勢則變得搖曳不定。 ????4.新媒體改變了游戲規則。當前，三人成虎已經成為了普遍現象。新媒體對于蘋果一直關注有加。與過去相比，現今媒體報道缺乏可信性和準確性。在這樣的大環境中，各種隱藏很深的計劃可以在公眾不知情的情況下肆無忌憚地推行。 ????5.蘋果的秘密。作為技術創新領域獨一無二的帶頭人，在新產品方面，蘋果對于競爭對手、消費者和投資者等向來都是三緘其口。蘋果當初還沒有售出哪怕一款平板電腦（Tablet）產品，然而對沖基金已從關于該產品的謠言中賺得盆滿缽盈。蘋果的諱莫如深為短線交易者帶來了一場完美風暴。 ????6.蘋果創新。創新是蘋果的拿手好戲，而且時常使世人想入非非。哪怕對沖基金隨便杜撰一個故事，例如，為了研發新款蘋果轎車，蘋果正謀劃并購土星（Saturn）汽車，人們也會陷入瘋狂…蘋果自身不斷的創新也給交易者的猜想提供了無窮無盡的素材。 ????7.史蒂夫?喬布斯，本世紀的先知。他是美國商界唯一國寶級別的人物，蘋果的股價也因喬布斯享受了一定的溢價，但這也是空頭可以利用的一個變數。因為蘋果股價一貫無法承受失去喬布斯之重。 |
????Whenever I see a chart like the one at right, which traces the trajectory of Apple's (AAPL) share price over the past 36 days, I'm reminded of Jason Schwarz's "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," a supremely cynical view of the stock market that may be the best thing The Street published in all of 2009. The nut of his thesis can be boiled down to two sentences: ????"If you can keep a good stock down," Schwarz wrote, "then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate." ????Ordinary retail investors who put their savings into Apple because they believed in the company's fundamentals would do well to bear Schwarz's words in mind when the stock behaves as it did in the first 20 days of June, dropping more than $32 (9.3%) despite sales, earnings and a balance sheet that is the envy of the tech world. ????Apple, as Schwarz reminds us, is the favorite punching bag of the hedge funds and institutions that control more than 70% of its shares. It's a pretty good bet that the earnings Apple is scheduled to report in less than two weeks will set new records, and savvy fund managers know this. If they were dumping the stock in early June, it's only because they were planning to snap it back up in advance of Apple's July 19th earnings report. ????Schwarz explained all this in his Dec. 19, 2009 piece. You can read it here. If you don't want to click through The Street's version -- posted in seven slow-loading gallery pages -- you can read, below the fold, the executive summary we posted on Dec. 20. ????1. Apple is the market leader. This one stock has become so important to the market that its action is contagious. This influence makes Apple a prized possession for both the longs and the shorts. Knocking down an easier target like Research In Motion (RIMM) or Citigroup (C) doesn't generate the same snowball effect. ????2. Apple always bounces back. Over the long run, Apple fundamentals will certainly take the stock higher, but hedge funds want to maximize the ride. Keeping a great stock down allows them to profit from quick predetermined trades rather than being fully invested all the time. ????3. The predictability of Apple reduces a short's risk. Everyone knows when the next iPod, iPhone,and iMac refreshes will hit. This has turned into a calendar-driven catalyst stock. During the quiet time, the stock is vulnerable. ????4. New media have changed the game. Anybody can say anything and the masses will believe it. The topic of Apple currently dominates this new media. There is no accountability or verification of sources like the old days. In such an environment, hidden agendas can be pushed endlessly without disclosure. ????5. Apple secrecy. As the unparalleled leader in tech innovation, Apple feels that it is necessary to keep future products veiled to all competitors, consumers and investors ... Apple has yet to sell a single Tablet, yet hedge funds already have made millions from rumors surrounding the product. The lack of transparency from Apple creates a perfect storm for short-term traders. ????6. Apple innovation. This company is so good that it causes imaginations to run wild. A hedge fund could float a story that Apple is thinking of buying Saturn in order to develop a new brand of Apple cars and people would go nuts ... The constant innovation coming out of Apple provides traders with endless material for believable speculation. ????7. Steve Jobs is the visionary of the century. This one man is the single greatest asset in corporate America, which causes Apple stock to trade with a Steve Jobs premium, a variable that the shorts can use as well. Apple's stock is always vulnerable to losing Jobs. |
相關稿件
最新文章