庫克（穿藍上衣者）出現(xiàn)在中國移動總部，圖片來源：M.I.C. Gadget
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????證券公司Ticonderoga Securities的首席蘋果（Apple）分析師布萊恩?懷特在自己的電腦里存了這樣一段文字： ????“我們認為中國移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展將成為未來十年科技界的偉大奇跡之一，中國人顯然對蘋果非?？駸?，我們認為隨著蘋果將合作對象擴大到中國移動（China Mobile）和中國電信（China Telecom），這種熱度一定還會繼續(xù)上升?！?/p> ????上周四，懷特兩次引用了上面這段話。 ????第一次是蘋果首席運營官蒂姆?庫克在中國移動總部露面（照片很不清晰，只有庫克的背影），懷特對此事發(fā)表評論。中國移動是世界最大的移動電話運營商，擁有6.11億無線用戶。（庫克的消息見鏈接。） ????四個小時后，懷特在轉載一篇報道時又引用了“偉大奇跡”。該報道稱，中國移動的一名員工通過微博（即中國版的Twitter）稱，中國移動將于9月份發(fā)售iPhone 5。到周五時，《上海日報》（Shanghai Daily）和路透社（Reuters）都轉載了這篇報道。 ????對于這些報道在十年后的重要意義，懷特的判斷也許是正確的。但對于蘋果的投資者而言，現(xiàn)在就開始計算這幾億用戶未免為時太早。 ????因為，通信協(xié)議是個大問題。 ????雖然蘋果在大中華區(qū)的業(yè)務正在蓬勃發(fā)展，2011年上半年的銷售額已經(jīng)達到50億美元，而2010年全年才為30億美元。不過在中國8.96億移動用戶中，蘋果僅僅占據(jù)了很小的份額。 ????首先，中國有三家主要的運營商，但蘋果僅和第二大運營商中國聯(lián)通（China Unicom）達成了合作協(xié)議；其次，中國擁有近9億移動用戶，但只有7，400萬用戶能夠使用3G網(wǎng)絡；最后，中國移動的3G網(wǎng)絡使用的是本土協(xié)議——TD-SCDMA，和蘋果目前的iPhone并不兼容。懷特在上周四提議稱，蘋果需要專門制作一款能在中國移動網(wǎng)絡上運行的iPhone 5，而蘋果到目前為止還不大情愿這樣做。 ????中國移動已宣布，一旦LTE（長期演技技術）網(wǎng)絡準備就緒，將發(fā)售蘋果4G iPhone。不過具體時間尚不清楚。 ????蒂姆?庫克上周在中國達成的一系列協(xié)議有朝一日可能會成為技術世界的偉大奇跡，但不大可能會是9月份。 ????譯者：項航 |
????Brian White, Ticonderoga Securities' chief Apple (AAPL) analyst, has a boilerplate sentence stored on his computer that goes like this: ????"We believe the ramp of the mobile Internet in China will be one of the great wonders of the tech world over the next decade and the country has clearly caught "Apple fever" that we believe will only accelerate as the company expands it carrier base to include both China Mobile and China Telecom." ????White used his "great wonder of the tech world" sentence twice on Thursday. ????Once when he commented on COO Tim Cook's appearance (and a blurry photograph of his back) in the headquarters of China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest mobile phone company with 611 million wireless subscribers. (See here.) ????And again, four hours later, when he passed along a report that one of China Mobile's employees had posted a weibo message (a Chinese tweet) indicating that China Mobile will begin selling the iPhone 5 in September -- a report that by Friday had made its way to the Shanghai Daily and the Reuters wire. ????White may be right about the significance of these reports over the next decade, but it's too soon for Apple investors to start counting those hundreds of million subscribers. ????It's a question of protocols. ????Although business in greater China has been booming for Apple -- $5 billion in sales in the first six months of fiscal 2011 versus $3 billion in all of 2010 -- the company has access to only a small fraction of China's 896 million mobile wireless subscribers. ????Of China's three largest carriers, Apple has a deal with only one -- China Unicom (CHU), the country's second largest. And of China's nearly 900 million subscribers, only 74 million have access to 3G networks. Finally, China Mobile's 3G network uses a home-grown protocol -- TD-SCDMA -- that is incompatible with Apple's current generation of iPhones. On Thursday, White suggested that Apple would have to build a special version of the iPhone 5 to work on China Mobile's network, something it has so far been reluctant to do. ????China Mobile has already announced that it will carry Apple's 4G iPhones when a LTE (long-term evolution) version is ready. When that happens is anybody's guess. ????So the deals Tim Cook was making in China this week may someday take their place among the great wonders of the tech world. But probably not by September. |
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