Facebook估值傳言可以休矣
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????人們普遍預(yù)期Facebook將在2012年上市，周一美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）的凱特?凱利又爆出一些猛料，使傳言進(jìn)一步升級(jí)。 ????據(jù)凱利報(bào)道，F(xiàn)acebook計(jì)劃在今年10月或11月向美國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)提交S-1上市申請(qǐng)書(shū)，然后在2012年第一季度進(jìn)行首次公開(kāi)募股。這也符合美國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)關(guān)于“500個(gè)股東”的規(guī)定（美國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)規(guī)定，任何擁有500名以上股東的公司都必須公開(kāi)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表——譯注）。根據(jù)該規(guī)定，F(xiàn)acebook將被迫在明年五月前披露其財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，因此Facebook很可能借機(jī)上市。雖然美國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)現(xiàn)在正在考慮放寬私企發(fā)行股票的門(mén)坎，但即便證監(jiān)會(huì)真的這樣做了，F(xiàn)acebook可能仍將面對(duì)來(lái)自?xún)?nèi)部員工的上市壓力，這些員工由于公司的阻止而無(wú)法在私股二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上銷(xiāo)售自己的股份，因而可能會(huì)催逼公司上市以銷(xiāo)售股權(quán)。（由于Facebook員工一度在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上大量賣(mài)出股份，因此Facebook不再向員工發(fā)放股票期權(quán)，而改為發(fā)放贈(zèng)股）。 ????此外，凱利在報(bào)道稱(chēng)，輿論認(rèn)為高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）已經(jīng)在Facebook上市股承銷(xiāo)權(quán)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占得先機(jī)，因?yàn)镕acebook去年價(jià)值15億美元的私股配售就是由高盛經(jīng)手管理的。另一個(gè)原因則是Facebook的上市不大可能采用公開(kāi)降價(jià)拍賣(mài)的方式。 ????凱利最后稱(chēng)，F(xiàn)acebook希望通過(guò)首次公開(kāi)募股使其市值達(dá)到“1,000億美元以上”。這一估值讓其他博客人瞠目結(jié)舌，大肆轉(zhuǎn)載。簡(jiǎn)直是莫名其妙! ????首先，最近Facebook在私股市場(chǎng)上的市值已經(jīng)達(dá)到了850億美元左右。而私股交易一定是按公開(kāi)估值的折扣價(jià)進(jìn)行的。以社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)LinkedIn的股份為例，在LinkedIn上市前6個(gè)月，該股在私股市場(chǎng)上的交易價(jià)為每股23美元，6個(gè)月后LinkedIn以45美元的價(jià)格上市。如果按照這個(gè)比率，F(xiàn)acebook明年一月份的估值有可能達(dá)到1,650億美元。 ????不過(guò)更重要的是，人們無(wú)法未卜先知地推算出一家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司6到10個(gè)月以后的估值。到時(shí)泡沫究竟是在繼續(xù)膨脹，還是已經(jīng)破裂？宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)將繼續(xù)保持入市反彈的態(tài)勢(shì)，還是將陷入二次衰退？ ????Facebook可能不需要操心所謂的IPO時(shí)機(jī)問(wèn)題，但它也不可能不受經(jīng)濟(jì)大氣候的影響。比方說(shuō)如果廣告業(yè)遭遇了大規(guī)模的衰退，那么Facebook最大的收入支柱就會(huì)受到打擊（至少增長(zhǎng)會(huì)放緩）。我不是說(shuō)這種情況一定會(huì)發(fā)生，但顯然這種可能性是存在的。對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，今天凱利的這篇“1,000億美元”報(bào)道的唯一價(jià)值就在于為Facebook正式上市時(shí)實(shí)際的公開(kāi)估值提供了一個(gè)參照。 ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????Facebook is widely expected to go public in 2012, and today CNBC's Kate Kelly put some meat on the rumor bones. ????She reports that the social network plans to file its S-1 by this October or November, with the actual offering to occur in Q1 2012. This is in keeping with the 500-shareholder rule theory, in which Facebook would be be forced to publicly disclose its financials by next May, so it might as well become publicly-traded. Even if the SEC lengthens that threshold -- which it is considering -- Facebook still could face IPO pressure from employees who have been prevented from selling their shares on private secondary markets (following a rash of such sales, Facebook began providing private stock grants rather than options). ????Kelly adds that Goldman Sachs (GS) is considered to have "pole position" for underwriting rights, due to its managing of a $1.5 billion secondary sale last year, and that Facebook is unlikely to use a Dutch Auction model. ????Last and least, Kelly reports that Facebook would be looking for an initial market cap in "north of $100 billion." This is the tidbit that most other blogs are breathlessly repeating, but I cannot understand why. ????First, the most recent private trades of Facebook stock came in at around $85 billion, and private trades are meant to be done at a discount to public valuations. LinkedIn (LNKD) shares, for example, traded at $23 per share on the private markets six months before going public at $45 per share. At that velocity, Facebook actually would be valued at $165 billion next January. ????More importantly, it's impossible to intelligently speculate on an Internet company valuation 6-10 months out. Will the bubble still be inflating? Will it have popped? Will macro trends have continued their anemic recovery, or double-dipped back down? ????Facebook is probably immune to the timing issues related to IPO windows, but it does not stand apart from the economy at large. If we experience a massive advertising pullback, for example, then Facebook could take a hit in its largest revenue pot (or at least a growth slowdown). Not saying that will happen, but obviously it could. To me, the only value in today's "$100 billion" report is in referring back to it when the company has an actual public valuation. |
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