人們談論中美之間的科技較量，其實是兩國在人工智能、5G網絡、量子計算和半導體領域的卡位戰。

與此同時，區塊鏈技術卻沒有從地緣政治角度得到足夠的重視。區塊鏈不僅是比特幣底層技術，還可以應用在跨境支付、供應鏈管理和制造業中。

支持者說，區塊鏈將給所有的行業帶來革新，而懷疑者認為區塊鏈的擴展有難度，并質疑這其潛力到底能否發揮出來。而中國似乎已經堅信區塊鏈的大好前景。政府正在集全國之力開發區塊鏈賦能的科技項目，意圖在此領域拔得頭籌。

Any talk of the on-going “tech Cold War” between the U.S. and China includes the countries’ positions in the fields of artificial intelligence, 5G networks, quantum computing, and semiconductors.

Meanwhile, the development of blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that underpins Bitcoin and has potential uses in cross-border payments, supply chain management, and manufacturing, has not received the same kind of geopolitical scrutiny.

Proponents say blockchain will revolutionize industries across the board, while skeptics point to difficulties with scalability and question whether the technology can live up to its potential. China, for its part, seems to have its mind made up on blockchain’s benefits. The government there is spearheading a national effort to develop blockchain-powered technology so it can gain an early edge in the field.

區塊鏈熱度

“（在中國）現在關于全區塊鏈概念的熱度很高。這意味著錢會流入這些初創企業，可能很多企業會失敗，但至少熱度和興奮度很高?！睔W亞集團地緣科技業務主管保羅·特里奧羅說，“在中國幾乎每天都有一場關于區塊鏈的會議?！?

自從2019年10月國家倡議加速區塊鏈開發后，“突然之間，中國人人都在討論區塊鏈?！碧乩飱W羅說。

自去年3月以來，在網信辦注冊的區塊鏈相關項目已經超過500個。

海南是中國的第12個自由貿易區，也是“區塊鏈試驗區”。試驗區還設立10億元區塊鏈產業基金，要把海南納入中國的科技港灣大計劃。

“在官方發話后，可以預計會有越來越多的區塊鏈應用出現在中國大陸的市場上?！毕愀蹍^塊鏈初創公司CryptoBLK創始人及首席執行官王世松說。

打擊虛擬幣

政府推動的區塊鏈創新，并不包括比特幣之類的虛擬貨幣，國家對區塊鏈背書之后緊接而來的，是全國范圍內對虛擬貨幣交易的打擊。

“投資者不能把虛擬貨幣等同于區塊鏈技術。虛擬貨幣的發售與交易包含著多種風險，包括虛擬資產、運營失敗和投機事件?！敝袊胄猩虾？偛吭?019年11月22日發文說。

臺灣初創企業Machi X聯合創始人及首席執行官鄭貫一說，目前對私人虛擬幣交易的打壓，是“這一行業的一大進步”。該公司使用區塊鏈技術注冊音樂版權并將版權銷售自動化。

“監管思路進一步明確了，這樣一來能實實在在地使用區塊鏈技術來解決實際問題，比如像我們這種，就能持續發展。”鄭貫一說。

中國最大的幾家科技公司，比如電商巨頭阿里巴巴和京東，都已經開發了區塊鏈平臺。京東使用區塊鏈技術追蹤散養雞，消費者可以查看食品供應和食品安全的數據。阿里巴巴也用區塊鏈技術追蹤食品供應。這兩家公司也將其區塊鏈平臺開放給其他商家使用。

“在區塊鏈這事上，國家似乎說了去干吧，或是給了祝福，但現在還不明朗的是，除了食品供應和食品安全追蹤，區塊鏈還有什么更廣泛的實際應用?！碧乩飱W羅說。

特里奧羅補充說，中國的區塊鏈發展或許仍然處于“最早期”，但這一新興科技對政府有吸引力，因為它意味著未來中國有機會在全球范圍內至關重要的技術領域實現自給自足。

未開發的領域

某種程度上，在成熟科技領域，贏家和輸家都已經塵埃落定。比如中國一直努力想要發展自己的半導體工業；而中國進口芯片花的錢超過進口石油花的錢。在人工智能領域，中國也經歷著人才枯竭的問題，因為頂尖人才都在美國。而區塊鏈代表著一片未開發的領域，沒有一個國家有明顯的領先優勢，而在獲取軟件或硬件方面，中國也不必依靠其他國家。

據新華社報道，中國“要強化基礎研究，提升原始創新能力，努力讓我國在區塊鏈這個新興領域贏得優勢?！?

“區塊鏈不是一種非得與美國相關的科技或能力，美國也不見得會在這一領域領先世界，所以這對中國來說是一種有趣的新科技，這是中國有機會不依賴于外部來源的科技，不像軟件和半導體?！碧乩飱W羅說。

美國聯邦政府針對區塊鏈技術并沒有什么政策，特朗普總統也沒有公開宣稱其重要性。

去年10月召開了一場長達6小時的針對數字貨幣Libra的國會聽證會。從這個會議能窺見美國官員對區塊鏈技術的態度：區塊鏈不怎么樣。眾議院金融服務委員會用一個又一個的質疑炮轟Facebook的馬克·扎克伯格，顯示了他們對這家科技公司和其創始人的懷疑態度，也表達了Libra可能會挑戰美元在全球金融系統中地位的擔憂。在監管機構的不確定態度下，Libra也是步履維艱。

人工智能顯然可以在軍事上應用，半導體對于現代商業科技至關重要，比如手機和電腦，而區塊鏈是一種更“彌散”的科技，較難理解，也缺少一種明確和廣泛的應用。這也解釋了為何區塊鏈沒有成為中美科技角逐的一個焦點，特里奧羅認為。

“區塊鏈是一種有趣的商機，但我認為它不是中美科技競爭的重要部分，部分原因是中國打擊了虛擬貨幣。”特里奧羅說，“我覺得區塊鏈在中美科技競爭中，處在一個邊緣的位置。”

鄭貫一看好區塊鏈技術，稱之為“根本性的變革技術”，可以與千禧年初互聯網對科技界的震撼相提并論，不過他也補充說，這種沖擊對于“前端用戶來說，可見度要小得多。”

“我覺得還早，還需要觀察。”特里奧羅說。（財富中文網）

譯者：宣峰

Blockchain buzz

“There’s a lot of hype right now [in China] around the whole blockchain concept. That means money will flow into startups and probably a lot of them will fail, but there’s at least a lot of hype and excitement,” says Paul Triolo, practice head of geo-technology at Eurasia Group. “It seems like there’s a conference every day now in China on blockchain.”

Since Chinese leader called for an acceleration of blockchain development in China at a Politburo study session at 2019 October, Triolo says, “suddenly everybody’s talking about blockchain.”

More than 500 blockchain-related projects have been registered with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the central government Internet regulator, since last March.

In the tropical island province of Hainan, which became China’s 12th free trade zone in 2018, the government launched a “blockchain pilot zone” with a $142 million fund to finance blockchain companies, part of a larger plan to turn the region into a national technology hub.

“After [leader’s] announcement I’m expecting to see more and more blockchain-based applications coming out of the mainland China market,” says Duncan Wong, CEO and founder of Hong Kong-based blockchain startup CryptoBLK.

Crypto crackdown

The government push for blockchain innovation does not include cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and an ongoing, nationwide crackdown on cryptocurrency exchanges in China came on the heels on leader’s blockchain endorsement.

“Investors must not treat virtual currencies the same as blockchain technology. The issuance and trading of virtual currency contain multiple risks, including fictitious assets, operation failure and speculation,” the Shanghai headquarters of China’s central bank said on Nov. 22, 2019.

Leo Cheng, co-founder and CEO of Machi X, a Taipei-based startup that uses blockchain to register music copyright ownership and automate royalty distribution, says the current crackdown on private exchanges is “a great step forward for the industry.”

“It creates further regulatory clarity, and it allows projects that are solid and solving real problems with blockchain in a compliant manner like ours to continue to proceed forward,” Cheng says.

Some of China’s biggest technology companies, like e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, have already developed blockchain platforms. JD uses blockchain to track free-range chickens so consumers can access food supply and food safety data. Alibaba has also used blockchain to track food supply. Both companies have made their platform services available for other businesses to use.

“[Chinese leader] has given the sort of go-ahead or blessing to blockchain, but it’s still not clear what real applications are going to be developed that are broader than things like food supply and food security,” Triolo says.

Triolo adds that it may still be “pretty early days” for blockchain in China, but the nascent technology appeals to the government because it represents a chance for China to become self-sufficient in a technology that may be globally significant in the near future.

Uncharted territory

Winners and losers have already emerged, to some degree, in established technologies. China, for instance, has long struggled to develop a homegrown semiconductor industry; it spends more money importing chips than it does on importing oil. With A.I., China is experiencing a brain drain as the U.S. snaps up top-tier talent. Blockchain, meanwhile, represents uncharted territory; no country has a clear advantage and China is not reliant on another country for access to software or hardware.

In the Politburo study session on blockchain, Chinese leader said that “more efforts should be made to strengthen basic research and boost innovation capacity to help China gain an edge in [...] the emerging field,” according to a recap of the speech by state-run news agency Xinhua.

“Blockchain isn’t a technology or capability that is uniquely associated with the U.S., or that the U.S. is perceived to have a lead in, so I see it more as an interesting new technology where China has the chance to not be dependent on outside sources of technology like they’re going to remain for things like software and semiconductors,” Triolo says.

The U.S. government has no federal policy on blockchain technology, nor has President Donald Trump publicly espoused its importance, as Chinese leader did.

A six-hour congressional hearing back in last October on Facebook’s blockchain-powered digital currency Libra—the most prominent showcase yet of U.S. officials’ attitude towards blockchain—did not go well. The House Financial Services Committee bombarded Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg with questions that revealed their skepticism of the embattled tech company and its founder, and voiced concerns that Libra would challenge the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. Libra has since languished in regulatory limbo.

Whereas A.I. has obvious military applications and semiconductors are essential to modern commercial tech like smartphones and laptops, blockchain is a more “diffuse” technology, harder to understand, and still lacks a clear-cut, widespread application, which might explain why blockchain hasn’t become a focal point of the U.S.-China tech rivalry, Triolo says.

“Blockchain is sort of an interesting niche, and I don’t think it’s seen as a huge part of the U.S.-China technology competition also because China has cracked down on [cryptocurrencies],” Triolo says. “I think it just has a different sort of place, if you will, in the U.S.-China tech competition.”

Cheng is bullish on blockchain, saying that it will be a “fundamentally transformative technology” akin to the effect of the Internet on the technological landscape in the beginning of the millennium, though he adds that he thinks the impact will be “a lot less visible to [front-end] users.”

The Chinese government has certainly spotted its potential. “I think we’re still in the early days of watching,” Triolo said. “[C]learly in China the leadership has said, ‘Go out and unleash blockchain.’”