如果說聯邦快遞對于全球經濟來說，就像一只用來檢測礦井里的空氣能否呼吸的金絲雀，那么這只金絲雀最近可是有點瘦了。

最近發布的聯邦快遞第一財務季度（截止到8月31日）報表顯示，該公司的營業收入下滑至171億美元。本周二收盤后，聯邦快遞的股價下跌了10%左右，每股凈利潤也由去年同期的3.10美元下滑至2.84美元。輝盛公司（FactSet）的數據顯示，此前分析師對聯邦快遞每股利潤的預期是3.15美元。

對此，聯邦快遞CEO施偉德表示：“我們的業績繼續受到全球宏觀環境疲軟的負面影響，其主要因素是貿易糾紛和政策的不確定性。”更糟糕的是，聯邦快遞已經將利潤預期從華爾街普遍認可的14.62美元每股，下調至11到13美元每股。

隨著全球經濟的滑坡，很多企業都在準備迎接增長乏力的局面。不過聯邦快遞的業績疲軟，是一個尤為值得擔憂的現象。原因是一直以來，聯邦快遞的業績都被外界看作是全球商業活動的“天氣預報”。

亞利桑那州立大學物流與供應鏈管理學教授戴爾·羅杰斯指出：“有人說經濟還在增長，他們的依據是GDP的數值。但是GDP作為一個指標只能起到‘后視鏡’的作用。它只會告訴你已經發生的事情。而聯邦快遞則是一個‘風向標’，它能告訴你即將發生的事情。”

與UPS和美國郵政不同的是，聯邦快遞并不高度依賴直接面向個人消費者的快遞業務，個人業務大約只占了聯邦快遞業務量的20%左右。其余的80%，則主要依賴商業“食物鏈”的上游環節，比如從供應商到制造商之間的物流。換句話說，早在消費者下單購買這些成品商品之前，聯邦快遞就已經把錢賺了。羅杰斯認為，聯邦快遞的不景氣，預示著經濟有可能在未來9到12個月里出現問題。

上個月，聯邦快遞還終止了與亞馬遜的貨運合同，這也給它的業績造成了一些影響，但影響相對不大。聯邦快遞還向投資者公布了來自樂天情報（Rakuten Intelligence）的一張圖表，上面顯示，過去幾年，它的所謂“最后一英里”業務（也就是直接配送至消費者手中的包裹）始終穩定地保持在5%以下，遠低于UPS和美國郵政的比例，這表明亞馬遜雖然在雄心勃勃地發展自己的快遞業務，但這并不會給聯邦快遞造成太大損失。

在一次討論營收問題的電話會議上，聯邦快遞的高管明確表示，對該公司財務業影響最大的因素的是全球經濟局勢，特別是貿易戰和一些國家的衰退。聯邦快遞財務總監艾倫·格拉夫表示，聯邦快遞下調預期的“絕大部分原因，與我們沒有預料到的宏觀環境因素有關。”他還表示，聯邦快遞正在采取措施減少運力，包括退役數十架貨機等。

當被問到，為什么中美貿易戰打了這么久，聯邦快遞才開始削減運力時，施偉德表示：“去年秋天，我們是第一個喊出這個口號的人。我記得很清楚。我的意思是，我們是最早預言了這種情況的人。”今年早些時候，中美之間一度有望達成新的貿易協定，這一期望導致很多人出現了“極大的興奮”，然而最終中美談判還是破裂了，美國再次祭起了關稅大棒。貿易戰打到這里，作為“吃瓜群眾”的其他經濟體也感到了一絲寒意，其中就包括聯邦快遞的業務比較活躍的一些歐洲國家。

雖然聯邦快遞已經通過削減成本做出了反應，不過施偉德指出，其他一些公司還在否認事實。他表示：“我每天都看商業新聞，我得告訴你們，我認為相對于現在的全球經濟形勢來說，媒體上的很多言論關于美國消費者和美國經濟的言論，都屬于在自己給自己壯膽。”

羅杰斯表示，聯邦快遞業績疲軟的情況，也與他正在追蹤的物流經理人指數中的其他一些重要指標吻合，比如運輸價格和倉儲能力等一些指標，有的增長已經放緩，有的較上年有所下降。全球航運巨頭馬士基集團也預警稱，貿易戰已經導致了全球海運的增長放緩。

目前，全球最關注的就是中美之間的貿易戰了。但是2019年，還有一些國家之間的貿易糾紛也起了火上澆油的作用。比如日本和韓國就貿易問題斗得不可開交，英國脫歐大戲則很有可能威脅英國乃至整個歐盟的經濟。

羅杰斯表示：“即使沒有貿易戰，我們也會看到增長形勢的變化，不過貿易戰嚴重擴大了它的規模。這不光是美國總統特朗普一個人的問題，而是全球的一些深層矛盾開始顯現了出來。特朗普只是這樣一個時代的報信者，是這些矛盾的反映，但并不是全部原因。”（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

If shipping giant FedEx is often regarded as a canary in the global economy coal mine, this canary is looking a little peaked.

FedEx shares tumbled roughly 10% after Tuesday's market close after the company said revenues in its first fiscal quarter ended Aug. 31 slipped to $17.1 billion, while its net profit fell to $2.84 a share from $3.10 a share a year earlier. Analysts had forecast earnings of $3.15 a share, according to FactSet.

"Our performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty," said CEO Fred Smith. Even worse, FedEx slashed its full-year profit forecast to between $11 a share and $13 a share, down from Wall Street's consensus forecast of $14.62 a share.

With global economies sagging, lots of companies are bracing for weaker growth. But FedEx's disappointing earnings report is especially worrisome for one key reason: It's widely seen as an early warning system for global commerce.

"I hear people saying the economy is growing because they are looking at the gross domestic product," says Dale Rogers, a professor of logistics and supply chain management at Arizona State University. "But GDP is a rear-view mirror of an indicator. It tells you what's already happened. FedEx is a bellwether because it tells you what's going to happen."

Unlike UPS or the U.S. Postal Service, FedEx isn't highly dependent on shipments to consumers, which make up about 20% of FedEx's business. The rest relies further up the business food chain: Shipments from suppliers to manufacturers, for example. In other words, long before consumers even have a chance to buy those manufactured goods. What happens to FedEx augurs what could happen to the economy about 9-to-12 months down the road, Rogers says.

FedEx was also hurt by its move last month to end its delivery contract with Amazon, although the damage from that move was relatively modest. FedEx shared with investors a chart from Rakuten Intelligence that showed its share of the last-mile shipments (that is, delivery to consumers) has steadily held below 5% for the past few years, far below the shares of UPS and the USPS, indicating it's insulated from Amazon's ambitious plans to deliver its own packages.

Instead, in a conference call discussing earnings, FedEx executives made it clear the biggest impact weighing on its financial performance was a global economy stymied by a trade war and a recession in some countries. CFO Alan Graf said the "vast majority" of the reduction in FedEx's guidance was "associated with the macroeconomic conditions that we did not expect." Smith added that the company is also taking steps to reduce capacity, including retiring several dozen aircraft.

Asked why FedEx didn't start cutting capacity until long after the U.S.-China trade war began, Smith said, "Last fall, we were the first people to call this out. And I remember very vividly. I mean, we are the leading prognosticator of this." Early this year, however, hope for an imminent trade deal led to a "tremendous amount of euphoria" before talks collapsed into new rounds of tariffs later on. That sent a chill to other economies, such as those in Europe, where FedEx is active.

And while FedEx is now reacting by cutting costs, Smith indicated that others remain in a sort of denial. "I watch the business press every day and I have to tell you, I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard about the U.S. consumer and the U.S. economy versus what's going on globally," Smith said.

Rogers says the weakness in FedEx's numbers echoes other leading indicators he helps to track in the Logistics Managers Index, such as transportation prices and warehouse capacity, which are slowing, if not down from last year. Global shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk has also warned that trade wars are slowing global shipments.

The ongoing trade war between U.S. and China may stand at center stage right now, but other trade disputes are adding to a broader trend of fraying trade alliances in 2019. Japan and South Korea are locked in their own bitter trade war, while the Brexit drama is threatening to hurt economies in the U.K. and the European Union alike.

"Even without the trade war, we'd be seeing a change in growth. but the trade war has tipped the scale," Rogers says. "It's not just President Trump. There are underlying tensions that are starting to come to the surface around the world. Trump is the messenger of the time. He's the reflection, but not the complete cause of it."