著名導演馬丁·斯科塞斯今秋將推出一部時長達三個半小時的犯罪電影巨制，這部電影擁有一切成功的元素：羅伯特·德尼羅、阿爾·帕西諾飾演吉米·霍法，還有近十年來首次參演電影的喬·佩西。導演馬丁·斯科塞斯曾經八次獲得奧斯卡最佳導演獎提名，制作成本據說為1.59億美元。從表面上看，這部電影既是奧斯卡金像獎的奪冠熱門，也是票房保證，但實際上，你可能得花大力氣才能夠在電影院里找到它的身影。

這是因為斯科塞斯的這部新作《愛爾蘭人》（The Irishman）將由Netflix發行。上周二有消息稱，盡管談判了好幾個月，Netflix仍未能與AMC、Regal和Cinemark等主要電影院連鎖達成協議，在院線大規模上映該片。這本身并不是Netflix的錯；盡管該公司是一家流媒體服務公司，但它試圖以30天的影院窗口期為限促成交易。不過，大型連鎖電影院猶豫不決，他們更愿意選擇傳統的90天窗口期，以實現利潤最大化。而且這樣還能夠保護他們不會因為有觀眾甘愿等幾個禮拜等到電影在線上播出而損失票房。

Netflix仍然將在一些規模較小的獨立影院放映《愛爾蘭人》，該片將于11月1日上映，于27日上線流媒體，確保了該片仍然有資格競逐奧斯卡獎。Netflix對阿方索·卡隆執導的《羅馬》（Roma）也采取了同樣的策略，該片獲得了去年奧斯卡最佳外語片獎。Netflix似乎準備擴大這種策略，史蒂文·索德伯格的《自助洗衣店》（The Laundromat）、蒂莫西·查拉默主演的《國王》（The King）、導演諾亞·鮑姆巴赫的《婚姻故事》（Marriage Story）都將在今年秋季上線流媒體之前，在部分影院進行小規模放映。

由于Netflix希望更多地追求榮譽和獎項，這種做法在短期內是有意義的。這讓Netflix的電影有機會追逐奧斯卡獎，同時在為其主要目標客戶（付費用戶）進行線上放映前只保留一個短暫的窗口期。但是，繼續這樣做的風險也已經若隱若現。如果知道自己的電影只能夠進行有限的院線發行或根本無法登上大熒幕，還有多少像斯科塞斯這樣地位的電影人會愿意為Netflix制作電影？

“從創造性的一面來看，這可能是個問題。”BoxOffice網站的首席分析師肖恩·羅賓斯說，“（像斯科塞斯一樣）擁有斐然聲譽和巨大成就的人……如果他的作品都不足以推動院線妥協，想想看還有多少導演會這么想，‘我到底是在拍院線電影還是電視電影？’”

已經有大導演談到了這一點。史蒂文·斯皮爾伯格高調向Netflix發起聲討，希望“戲劇體驗仍然能夠成為我們文化中的重要部分”。Netflix錯過了票房大贏家、現象級流行文化電影《摘金奇緣》（Crazy Rich Asians），因為導演朱浩偉和原著作者關凱文想要“一種老式的電影院觀影體驗，而不是讓粉絲坐在電視機前，按下一個按鈕。”

如果對三個月窗口期的要求不那么嚴格，Netflix可能會更多地向影院做出讓步。其實，大多數電影在上映的頭幾周內就賺了大部分票房，這符合Netflix要求的30天窗口期。《復仇者聯盟4：終局之戰》（Avengers: Endgame）是史上票房最高的電影，截至第三周，該片8.58億美元的國內總票房已經實現了7.41億美元。三個月窗口期的做法來源于以前無法立刻在線上發布數字版電影的時期，因此從這個角度來看，隨著時代的變化，Netflix試圖達成30天的折中方案似乎是合理的。但對于那些目睹了視頻公司和唱片公司被數字行業的顛覆者摧毀的影院運營商來說，他們難以接受。將影院期窗口減少三分之二顯然是大型連鎖影院不愿意承擔的風險。

技術創新可能最終會勝出。但是，具有諷刺意味的是，Netflix的創新已經使其成為世界上幾大娛樂巨頭之一，從而加大了Netflix在僵局中讓步的壓力。迪士尼+和HBO Max將在明年推出吸引人的原創內容，進一步加劇了競爭。為了贏得用戶，Netflix將需要繼續盡可能多地推出頂級內容。等著影院掙夠了他們的份額，才讓影片上線Netflix，這不利于業務發展。

最終，Netflix的生死存亡并非取決于奧斯卡獎或票房收入，而是取決于它的訂戶。“他們要求盡快看到電影。”北美院線聯盟（Exhibitor Relations）的資深票房分析師杰夫·博克表示。“他們不想在電影上映后還要再等幾個月，這不是他們訂閱付費會員的目的。”Netflix和連鎖影院能否找到折中方案——也許兩個月？博克說：“我認為Netflix的用戶不會買賬。”迪士尼、華納媒體，我們不要忘了還有Apple TV+和亞馬遜，都在虎視眈眈。

因此，Netflix目前仍然夾在內容制作者和購買（并支付）內容的人中間。這家公司肯定會繼續制作有大明星參演的大片，而小型影院也會繼續放映這些影片，以獲得奧斯卡入場券。但對于Netflix來說，要想真正躍入電影制作的第一梯隊，成為真正發行電影大片、獲得最佳影片獎的公司，它將不得不改變和連鎖電影院的關系——否則，它可能無法再找到另一個馬丁·斯科塞斯為它制作電影。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

Famed director Martin Scorsese has a new three-and-a-half hour crime epic coming this fall and it’s got everything: Robert De Niro, Al Pacino as Jimmy Hoffa, and Joe Pesci in his first film in nearly a decade. Helmed by a filmmaker nominated for eight Best Director Academy Awards, it’s said to have cost $159 million to produce. On paper, it’s slated for both Oscar glory and box office success, and yet, you might have to make a serious effort to catch it in theaters.

That’s because Scorsese’s new film, The Irishman, will be distributed by Netflix. News broke on last Tuesday that Netflix, despite months of negotiations, couldn’t reach a deal with the major movie chains AMC, Regal, and Cinemark for a wide theatrical release. It isn’t Netflix’s fault, per se; even though the company is a streaming service first, it tried to broker deals for a 30-day window. The major theater chains balked at the idea, though, preferring instead a traditional 90-day window that allows for maximized profits. It also protects them from losing out on ticket sales from viewers content to wait a few weeks for a digital release.

Netflix will still show The Irishman in some smaller, independent theaters, starting Nov. 1 ahead of its streaming release on the 27th, ensuring the film will still qualify for the Oscars. It’s the same strategy Netflix took with Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, which took home Best Foreign Language Film at last year’s Oscars. And it’s a strategy that Netflix looks poised to expand upon, with Steven Soderbergh’s The Laundromat, the Timothee Chalamet–starring The King, and director Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story all seeing a limited theatrical release before streaming online this fall.

This approach makes sense in the short-term as Netflix increasingly pursues prestige trophies. It gives the platform’s movies a chance to win Academy Awards while also keeping a short theatrical window before turnover to Netflix’s main priority: its paying subscribers. But there is a looming danger in continuing this approach. How many filmmakers of Scorsese’s stature will be willing to make movies for Netflix knowing they will see little placement in the cinema, or none at all?

“From the creative side this can be trouble,” says BoxOffice Chief Analyst Shawn Robbins. “Someone with [Scorsese’s] reputation and accomplishments... if his work isn’t the push to compromise it makes one wonder how many more directors will think, ‘Am I making theatrical movies or TV movies?’”

Prominent directors have already spoken to this point. Steven Spielberg went on a high-profile crusade against Netflix in a quest for “the theatrical experience to remain relevant in our culture.” And Netflix missed out on box office and pop culture phenomenon Crazy Rich Asians because director Jon Chu and the book’s author Kevin Kwan wanted “an old-fashioned cinematic experience, not for fans to sit in front of a TV and just press a button.”

Netflix would perhaps concede to the theaters more often if the demand for a three-month window wasn’t so stringent. Most movies after all make the majority of their money within the first few weeks, on par with Netflix’s request for 30 days. Avengers: Endgame, the highest-grossing movie of all-time, made $741 million of its $858 million domestic total to date by week three. The three-month window hails from a time before instantaneous digital availability, and so in that regard Netflix’s attempt to compromise at 30 days seems reasonable as the times change. But it’s a tough sell for the theater operators who have seen video stores and record stores wiped out by digital disruptors. Reducing the theatrical window by two-thirds is just a risk the big chains apparently aren’t willing to take.

Technological innovation may eventually win out. But, ironically, the innovation that has seen Netflix become one of the world’s foremost names in entertainment increases the pressure for something to give in this stalemate. Disney+ and HBO Max will arrive next year with alluring original content, increasing the competition. In a battle to win subscribers, Netflix will need to continue to push out top-tier content as frequently as possible. Waiting for theaters to get their share until it later arrives on Netflix is not good for business.

At the end of the day, Netflix lives and dies not off of Academy Awards or box office revenues, but its subscribers. “They demand the movies as soon as possible,” says Jeff Bock, a senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “They don’t want to wait months after the movie’s in theaters, that’s not what they signed up for for.” Could Netflix and the theater chains compromise in the middle of their demands—perhaps two months? “I don’t think Netflix subscribers are going to go for that,” Bock says. Not with Disney, Warner Media—and let’s not forget the new Apple TV+ and Amazon—waiting in the wings.

And so Netflix remains, for now, stuck in the middle between the people who make its content and the people who consume (and pay) for it. The company will certainly continue to make big movies with big stars and small cinemas will continue to screen them for Oscar eligibility. But for Netflix to truly take the leap to filmmaking powerhouse, the kind that releases cinematic events and wins Best Picture, its relationship with the movie chains will have to change—otherwise, it might not get another Martin Scorsese to make its movies.