在描述自己的國家時，很難想象有什么比這種說法更令人不安的了：“經濟正位于低空飛行軌道上……里面還有已經點燃引信的炸彈。”希臘新任財長克里斯托斯·斯泰克拉斯在7月早些時候就職時如此表示，在此前7月7日的選舉中，保守的新民主黨擊敗了亞歷克西斯·齊普拉斯領導的左翼聯盟政府。

現在，新總理基里亞科斯·米佐塔基斯——這位哈佛大學畢業的風險投資家面臨一項緊迫的任務，確保這些炸彈不會像2010年代初那樣在半空中爆炸，當時希臘瀕臨破產，即將被迫退出歐元區。這個國家經受了巨大的痛苦：GDP在8年內縮水了26%，這是和平時期任何一個國家歷史上都不曾遇到過的最大經濟衰退（也許大蕭條除外）。

得益于國際貨幣基金組織和歐盟提供的約3000億美元的救助，希臘的1000萬公民仍然是歐盟成員。但希臘需要感謝的還有其他援助方，尤其要感謝中國。中國國有企業航運巨頭中遠集團目前擁有希臘最大的港口比雷埃夫斯(Piraeus)。在7月的《財富》雜志中，我們前往比雷埃夫斯，描寫了這筆交易對于解決希臘經濟困境多么重要，對于中國國家主席習近平的全球雄心多么重要。

未來可能會有更多這樣的交易。米佐塔基斯在上周向BBC表示，“我的首要任務是提升希臘對資本的吸引力”，他承諾從明年1月1日起將企業稅從28%降至20%。米佐塔基斯說，外國投資的參考模式是比雷埃夫斯港。

在上任的頭幾周，米佐塔基斯政府批準了中遠集團在比雷埃夫斯港的擴張計劃，包括建新的五星級酒店和一家豪華購物中心，齊普拉斯政府曾經擱置了該計劃好幾個月。米佐塔基斯政府還表示，將結束近年來的資本管制。

我們在雅典對希臘央行行長亞尼斯·斯圖納拉斯就一系列廣泛的議題進行了采訪，我們發現，希臘經濟復蘇仍然有很長的路要走。斯圖納拉斯闡述了這個國家如何能夠從現代社會中最黑暗的十年中走出來。以下是經過編輯的采訪內容：

《財富》雜志：希臘經濟危機結束了嗎？

亞尼斯·斯圖納拉斯：好多了。競爭力得到了提升，銀行體系也實現了資本化。當然，危機也留下了后遺癥，債務占GDP的比例仍然很高。存在人才流失和投資缺口的問題。這些問題將綿延數年。我們已經成功解決了流動性即赤字的問題。但是股票、高負債、不良貸款的問題更加棘手。

你說“數年”，你預計什么時候才能夠真正走出這場危機？

要將占GDP180%的債務降至100%以下，需要好幾年時間。

談談中遠集團對比雷埃夫斯港的投資吧，中遠集團計劃中還有大量投資尚未執行。

是的。我們迫切需要外國直接投資。為了實現更高的增長率，我們需要更高的投資。我們的投資只占GDP的10%。在危機之前，我們的投資占GDP的20%。因此存在投資缺口。由于債務危機的后遺癥，我們無法借款，或者說借款條件非常難。因此我們希望進行股本投資，或者我們所說的外國直接投資。

外界認為希臘已經走出危機。你們在2018年夏天退出了歐盟的救助計劃。你們是否已經脫離困境了？

顯然沒有。一個剛剛擺脫經濟緊縮的國家需要謹慎行事。

對于普通希臘人來說，這幾年的緊縮有多難？

對一些人來說，非常非常困難。成千上萬的人離開了這個國家。對于那些留在希臘的人來說，這些年來他們的收入平均減少了25%以上。這是非常非常嚴重的，可能僅次于美國20世紀二三十年代的大蕭條。而且這種情況在希臘持續的時間更長。因此，我們永遠都不能忘記這個教訓。這就是為什么希臘央行認為應該發出警告時，就要發出警告。

你從這段黑暗的歲月中學到了什么？

我們應該高度警惕。當時的問題是我們超出了預算的目標。在過去的某個時間點，我們的預算赤字曾經達到GDP的50%。這是非常高的比例。這意味著沒有人關注國家的財政狀況。這就是為什么我說，我們今后永遠、永遠不能讓類似的情況重現。

無論走到雅典的哪個地方，人們都在談論人才流失。希臘的人口危機、人口縮水有多嚴重？

由于希臘的危機和經濟衰退，幾十萬的人才離開希臘到國外工作。希望我們能夠讓其中的一些人回心轉意。不是在遙遠的未來，而是立即做到這一點——通過實現更高的增長，創造新的就業機會，支付更高的薪水。

希臘的人口增長正在下降，人才外流造成了低增長率。這意味著潛在的經濟增長率也在下降。扭轉這些趨勢并不容易。只有創造好工作，我們才能夠讓那些離開的人重新回國，尤其是可以多生孩子的年輕夫婦。但他們需要更好的工作，而在短期內，這意味著我們需要進行結構性改革，我們需要直接投資。我們很有潛力。但要發掘潛力，希臘需要外國直接投資——現在馬上。（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

It is hard to imagine a more unsettling description of one’s country than saying that “the economy is on a low flight path…and it contains bombs with lighted fuses.” That assessment came from Greece’s new finance minister, Christos Staikouras, earlier July when he was sworn into office, after the conservative New Democracy party trounced the left-wing Syriza government of Alexis Tsipras in elections on July 7.

Now, new Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis—a Harvard-educated venture capitalist—has the urgent task of ensuring that those bombs do not explode in midair, much as they did in the early 2010s, when Greece teetered on the edge of bankruptcy and came close to crashing out of the Eurozone. The country’s pain is legion: Its GDP has shrunk 26% in eight years—the biggest recession in history of any country in peacetime, save perhaps for the Great Depression.

Thanks to a bailout of about $300 billion from the IMF and the European Union, Greece’s 10 million citizens are still E.U. members. But there were other thanks to give for the rescue, in particular to China, whose state-owned shipping giant Cosco Shipping Group now owns Greece’s biggest port, Piraeus. For July’s Fortune, we traveled to Piraeus to describe how that deal became critical to Greece’s economy, and to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s mammoth global ambitions.

More such deals might be ahead. Mitsotakis told the BBC last week, “My number one priority is to make Greece an attractive destination for capital,” and vowed to cut corporate taxes from 28% to 20%, beginning on Jan. 1. The model for foreign investment, Mitsotakis says, is Piraeus.

Within its first weeks in office, Mitsotakis’s government has approved Cosco’s expansion plans in Piraeus for new five-star hotels and a luxury shopping mall—investments that Tspiras’s government had blocked for several months. It has also said it will end capital controls imposed in recent years.

But Greece’s economy still has a long recovery ahead, as we discovered when we sat down in Athens with Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras for a far-ranging interview. Stournaras laid out how the country can dig out from its darkest decade in modern times. Here’s an edited version of our interview:

FORTUNE: Is the Greek economic crisis over?

Yannis Stournaris: It is much better. Competitiveness has improved, the banking system is capitalized. Of course, there is the legacy of the crisis, which is still high debt as a percentage of GDP. There is a brain drain and an investment gap. These problems will stay for a number of years. We have managed to solve the flow problems, which is deficits. But the stock problems, the high debts, non-performing loans, they are more difficult to tackle.

When you say “a number of years” what is your prediction of when you will truly be out of this crisis?

To bring down a debt of 180% of GDP to below 100%, it will take a number of years.

Focusing on Cosco’s investment in the port of Piraeus, a lot of investment that Cosco planned has not yet happened.

Yes. We desperately need foreign direct investment. Because in order to achieve higher growth rates we need higher investment. We invest only 10% of GDP. Before the crisis we invested about 20% of GDP. So there is an investment gap. We cannot borrow, or borrowing conditions are very difficult, because of the legacy of the debt crisis. We so hope for equity investment, or what we call direct foreign investment.

There is a perception outside Greece that the country is out of the crisis. You exited the E.U. bailout regime in the summer of 2018. Are you out of the woods?

Definitely not. A country which is just out of austerity needs to be careful.

How difficult have these years of austerity been for regular Greeks?

For some of them, very very, difficult. Hundreds of thousands have left the country. But for those who stayed in Greece, there has been an average reduction of income of more than 25% during these years. That is very, very serious, perhaps only second to the Great Depression of the U.S. in the 1920s and 1930s. And it lasted longer in Greece. So that is why it is a lesson that we shall never forget. That is why the Bank of Greece needs to warn when it feels it should send warning lights.

What is the lesson you have learned from these dark years?

We should be very vigilant. The problem was we exceeded the targets of the budget. At some point in the past we had a budget deficit of 50% of GDP. That is extremely high. Which means that nobody paid attention to the fiscal situation of the state. That is why I say we should never, never go back to a similar situation in the future.

Everywhere we go in Athens, people talk about the brain drain. How bad is the demographic crisis in Greece – the shrinking population?

Hundreds of thousands of talented people have left Greece to work abroad, because of the crisis conditions here and the recession. Hopefully we will be able to bring some of them back. Not in the distant future, but immediately, by achieving higher growth and creating good new jobs, with good salaries.

The brain drain produces a low growth rate because the population growth is declining. That means the potential growth rate of the economy is declining too. It is not easy to reverse these trends. Only by producing good jobs can we bring back people who left—especially young couples producing more children. But they need better jobs to do that, and in the short term that means we need to do structural reforms, and we need to have direct investment. We have a very high potential. But to exploit that, Greece needs foreign direct investment—immediately.