隨著大量競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手即將上線，《老友記》（Friends）和《辦公室》（The Office）等劇集退出Netflix，人們理所當(dāng)然就認(rèn)為Netflix遇到了麻煩。的確如此，它在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域里的主導(dǎo)地位正在下滑，從它上季度增長(zhǎng)疲軟、流失了近13萬付費(fèi)用戶就可以看出。盡管迪士尼+、HBO Max、NCB環(huán)球（NBCUniversal）和蘋果（Apple）的流媒體服務(wù)都將在不久后的將來面世，但有很多理由相信，該公司將能夠避免大批量用戶流失。

大部分專家認(rèn)為，原創(chuàng)節(jié)目很可能成為流媒體平臺(tái)能否稱霸的最終決定因素，但Netflix如何能夠繼續(xù)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位卻仍然面臨著許多問題。

“（第二季度）的業(yè)績(jī)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)無關(guān)，因?yàn)樘O果、迪士尼、HBO Max等公司的流媒體服務(wù)仍未面世。”研究公司Frost and Sullivan的首席分析師丹·雷伯恩表示，“內(nèi)容為王，尤其是觀眾喜歡的原創(chuàng)劇集是最重要的。隨著Netflix在第三、第四季度推出更多原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容，用戶增長(zhǎng)應(yīng)該會(huì)恢復(fù)。對(duì)Netflix而言，第二季度的表現(xiàn)十分糟糕，但他們?nèi)匀贿h(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)領(lǐng)先于市場(chǎng)上的其他公司。”

因此，這種糟糕的業(yè)績(jī)應(yīng)該會(huì)因?yàn)?月《怪奇物語》（Stranger Things）的成功和暑期票房的低迷開始被抵消，這表明Netflix的未來之路雖將更加艱難，但并沒有被淘汰出局。

下列幾條原因部分解釋了為什么即使Netflix失去了備受歡迎的第三方劇集，即使激烈的行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益迫近，也并不意味著公司前景黯淡，也說明了該公司應(yīng)當(dāng)如何提升內(nèi)容和企業(yè)行為以保持增長(zhǎng)：

失去“爽心內(nèi)容”并不是什么大問題

尼爾森的報(bào)告和其他數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，Netflix自己也承認(rèn)，《辦公室》和《老友記》都位居Netflix最受歡迎的節(jié)目之列。不過，沒有確切的數(shù)據(jù)——就《辦公室》而言，Netflix只是說：“2018年，它的總播放時(shí)長(zhǎng)超過520億分鐘，而在2019年4月，它的觀看量幾乎是播放量第二高的節(jié)目的兩倍。”

但這只能發(fā)告訴公眾，這部劇和其他節(jié)目相比表現(xiàn)如何，而無法看出它在全部劇集的播放量中所占份額。《老友記》的受歡迎程度仍然是個(gè)謎，不過正如南加州大學(xué)安能伯格數(shù)字未來中心（USC Annenberg Center for The Digital Future）的創(chuàng)始人及主任杰弗里·科爾所言，“他們?cè)敢鉃椤独嫌延洝?年支付1億美元，這個(gè)事實(shí)顯示出他們對(duì)這部劇的重視程度。”研究公司MoffettNathanson對(duì)11000多名Netflix訂閱用戶進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)最新調(diào)查顯示，在Netflix最受歡迎的20部電視節(jié)目中，有15部是原創(chuàng)劇，其中《女子監(jiān)獄》（Orange Is the New Black）和《怪奇物語》位居榜首。上榜的共有四部第三方電視劇，《辦公室》和《老友記》分別排在第9位和第10位，落后于Netflix的其他原創(chuàng)劇和“電影”這一囊括一切的類別。

“它很受歡迎，但它能夠讓你留下來嗎？”雷伯恩說，“受歡迎與否并不重要——你只需要關(guān)心這部劇可以留住用戶還是會(huì)失去用戶。我沒聽說會(huì)有哪個(gè)人說：‘我必須訂HBO Max的會(huì)員，因?yàn)樗麄冇小独嫌延洝贰！?/p>

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手很多，但細(xì)節(jié)很少

在眾多即將推出的流媒體服務(wù)中，只有迪士尼提供了具體細(xì)節(jié)。我們知道迪士尼的流媒體服務(wù)將于11月12日面世，每個(gè)月的訂閱費(fèi)是6.99美元，收錄了該公司旗下的大量電影，包括皮克斯（Pixar）、漫威（Marvel）和《星球大戰(zhàn)》（Star Wars）系列。NBC環(huán)球表示，它的服務(wù)將提供兩種選擇：一種是面向有線電視用戶的免費(fèi)版，由廣告費(fèi)用支持；另一種是付費(fèi)版，價(jià)格尚未公布，但有傳言稱，將在10至14美元之間，面向的是不愿看廣告以及沒有有線電視的用戶。

據(jù)報(bào)道，HBO Max每月訂閱費(fèi)為16到17美元，內(nèi)容包括HBO旗下的劇集以及華納傳媒的許多節(jié)目，母公司美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）官宣的包括《老友記》、《貝萊爾的新鮮王子》（The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air）和《美少女的謊言》（Pretty Little Liars）。“這是三部大劇，這些劇集讓他們的服務(wù)具有革命性。你是HBO啊，你準(zhǔn)備用這些內(nèi)容霸屏嗎？”雷伯恩說。

與此同時(shí)，Apple TV+并沒有確定的推出日期、價(jià)格，也沒有任何信息透露沒有蘋果設(shè)備的用戶將如何觀看它的內(nèi)容。到目前為止，僅僅宣布了一些原創(chuàng)節(jié)目，以及與奧普拉、斯皮爾伯格、JJ·艾布拉姆斯和詹妮弗·安妮斯頓等人達(dá)成的協(xié)議。

雖然迪士尼+看起來會(huì)大受歡迎，但看它的定位，不會(huì)成為狙擊Netflix的殺手。 “這個(gè)派對(duì)上唯一有點(diǎn)特別的是迪士尼，因?yàn)樗麄兪俏ㄒ粨碛泄ぷ魇业钠放啤！笨茽栒f，“6.99美元是個(gè)很吸引人的價(jià)格。但我不認(rèn)為人們需要在‘Netflix或迪士尼’之間做選擇。”

Netflix正在提升其原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容（但仍有進(jìn)步空間）

一旦所有的流媒體服務(wù)項(xiàng)目都上線運(yùn)行，決定人們給誰花錢的最關(guān)鍵因素是原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容的質(zhì)量、數(shù)量和連貫性。Netflix在《女子監(jiān)獄》和《怪奇物語》等劇集上顯然做得非常好，但它需要調(diào)整自己的方式，避免人們?cè)跊]有熱門節(jié)目時(shí)取消訂閱，好節(jié)目上線時(shí)再重新續(xù)訂。

“現(xiàn)在每家公司都在爭(zhēng)搶同一批觀眾和他們手里的錢。”雷伯恩說，“消費(fèi)者不會(huì)同時(shí)訂閱10項(xiàng)服務(wù)，所以他們必須選出自己想要的內(nèi)容，這些服務(wù)必須都在創(chuàng)造看起來非常好的原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容。Hulu注意到人們?cè)诓粩嗤擞喸倮m(xù)訂他們的直播服務(wù)。籃球賽季開始了，用戶就訂閱兩個(gè)月，然后停三個(gè)月。切換很容易，這對(duì)消費(fèi)者來說是件好事。他們會(huì)不斷地在不同服務(wù)中間跳躍。”

Netflix已經(jīng)開始轉(zhuǎn)型，從擁有數(shù)萬部劇集、重視廣度和深度的服務(wù)，轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)?nèi)容進(jìn)行精挑細(xì)選、精心展示的服務(wù)，這既帶來了問題，也帶來了機(jī)遇。

一家電影融資在線市場(chǎng)（為項(xiàng)目、投資者和發(fā)行方牽線）的首席執(zhí)行官斯蒂芬·帕特諾特說，以前“誰能夠搞清楚如何流暢地播放視頻，誰就可以占領(lǐng)整個(gè)市場(chǎng)”，Netflix那時(shí)擁有一片綠地，“我把它稱為‘第一階段’，目的是盡可能多地吸引全世界用戶訂閱流媒體服務(wù)。‘第二階段’是，‘我們?nèi)绾沃谱鞒鲎詈玫膬?nèi)容，同時(shí)還能節(jié)約成本？’Netflix已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了，制作1000部電視劇，在其中找到10部好劇，這種做法無效資本率非常高。他們要如何在全球范圍內(nèi)提升內(nèi)容，吸引不同語言、文化和興趣的觀眾？”

科爾認(rèn)同，Netflix必須在成本控制方面做得更好，但他認(rèn)為解決方法不是繼續(xù)制作這么多電視劇，還有其他方案。“Netflix必須減少節(jié)目數(shù)量，提高節(jié)目質(zhì)量。HBO用 25億美元制作的內(nèi)容，比Netflix花120億美元做的還要多。”他說，“我覺得挺有意思的一件事是，他們的很多劇集都不會(huì)超過第二季或者第三季。這樣他們就沒有辦法囤像《辦公室》這樣100多集的電視劇。”

盡管《老友記》這樣的經(jīng)典劇集正在從Netflix流失，但這些年來，它們對(duì)于Netflix而言是無價(jià)之寶。“影視巨頭為了建立自己的流媒體平臺(tái)，正在把這些經(jīng)典劇目從平臺(tái)上撤出，但Netflix仍然需要依賴這些經(jīng)典劇目在本平臺(tái)播放期間所收集的數(shù)據(jù)，為自己的未來項(xiàng)目開發(fā)計(jì)劃提供指引，比如題材、出品方或明星等。”奧本大學(xué)的媒體研究助理教授埃莉諾·帕特森說，“比如說，想一想Netflix與亞當(dāng)·桑德勒的合同，或者他們對(duì)青少年電視和電影的投資。這些都是他們通過研究用戶觀看桑德勒電影或者20世紀(jì)八九十年代的經(jīng)典青少年喜劇等第三方節(jié)目的數(shù)據(jù)后得出的直接結(jié)論。”畢竟，我們都看到了桑德勒的最新電影《謀殺之謎》（Murder Mystery）在全球的表現(xiàn)。

Netflix可以考慮開發(fā)一個(gè)廣告支持的版本

這個(gè)想法聽起來可能不太入時(shí)，但開發(fā)一個(gè)由廣告支持的版本對(duì)于Netflix而言可能是一個(gè)很棒的商業(yè)舉措。“沒有人喜歡廣告，但是如果你想從1.5億用戶增加到10億用戶，你就必須找到一種方法，讓人們能夠在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)免費(fèi)試用你的服務(wù)。”帕特諾特說，“Spotify讓每個(gè)人都能夠不受限地使用他們的服務(wù)，吸引住了用戶，同時(shí)因?yàn)樗麄兊姆?wù)實(shí)在太棒了，最后有一半的人都選擇了付費(fèi)訂閱。Hulu也在做同樣的事情。他們?cè)趶V告支持方面做得很好，但給人們足夠的理由去訂閱高清和不含廣告的節(jié)目。”

還可以繼續(xù)爭(zhēng)取第三方內(nèi)容授權(quán)，不分大小

即使經(jīng)典情景喜劇和迪士尼旗下內(nèi)容都高調(diào)退出，但仍然有許多電影和電視節(jié)目不屬于任何現(xiàn)有或即將推出的流媒體公司旗下。科爾有一個(gè)建議：“如果我是Netflix，我會(huì)盡快鎖定索尼和派拉蒙。”

它還可以與規(guī)模較小的制作公司簽約來填補(bǔ)內(nèi)容上可能出現(xiàn)的任何空白。“他們正在試圖弄明白電影公司很久以前就已經(jīng)明白了的道理，那就是，‘對(duì)于我們而言，做一些受眾非常廣的大項(xiàng)目相對(duì)來說更容易，我們可以和專業(yè)公司合作填補(bǔ)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的空白，填上那些更加小眾高端的內(nèi)容。”帕特諾特說，“電影公司收購(gòu)了這樣那樣的小規(guī)模制作公司，或者和它們合作，但即使在過去20年里，它們也一直在拆解這些公司。Netflix一直在建可以用來處理大、中、小型項(xiàng)目的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。它有一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)，它有能力讓中小規(guī)模的項(xiàng)目賺錢，大型工作室現(xiàn)在都還沒有這個(gè)能力。現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候開始轉(zhuǎn)向這個(gè)方向了，要做好準(zhǔn)備。”

最后，Netflix用戶的忠誠(chéng)度值得依賴

MoffettNathanson對(duì)Netflix用戶的調(diào)查顯示，即使費(fèi)用上升，他們的忠誠(chéng)度仍然很高：“26%的受訪者表示，他們能夠容忍1到2美元的漲價(jià)，還有28%的人覺得超過2美元也愿意。”（這個(gè)數(shù)字還沒不包括14%使用他人付費(fèi)賬戶的Netflix用戶，這部分用戶的存在是因?yàn)橛脩糁g共享密碼的問題還沒有得到解決。）

科爾說，即使自己熟悉喜歡的服務(wù)或品牌出現(xiàn)了一些小的變化，但一些用戶仍然堅(jiān)持使用，這是出于“慣性”。如他所言，“仍然有200萬人訂閱美國(guó)在線（AOL）來接收電子郵件。”

整體而言，他說Netflix不會(huì)遇上問題，這點(diǎn)雷伯恩、帕特諾特和帕特森都同意，但要想有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，它必須得比以前更聰明。“我的觀點(diǎn)是，Netflix不會(huì)消失，但眼下還有其他幾種流媒體服務(wù)，這會(huì)讓它們更難實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)有增長(zhǎng)。他們現(xiàn)在不再是派對(duì)的主人了。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

With plenty of competitors set to launch, and shows like Friends and The Office leaving its service, it’s easy to think that Netflix is in trouble. And it is—to the extent that its status as the dominant player in this field is slipping, as seen in its sluggish growth and loss of almost 130,000 subscribers last quarter. But there are many reasons to believe the company will avoid a mass subscriber exodus as Disney+, HBO Max, and NBCUniversal and Apple’s streaming services all launch in the near future.

As the experts mostly agree, original programming will likely be the ultimate determining factor in which streaming platform reigns supreme, but many questions remain as to how Netflix can remain there.

“[The second-quarter] news has nothing to do with competition, since Apple, Disney, HBO Max, etc. still have not launched in the market,” says Dan Rayburn, principal analyst at research firm Frost and Sullivan. “Content is king, especially original series that consumers can binge. As Netflix ramps up original content releases for Q3 and Q4, subscriber growth should return. It’s a bad quarter for them, absolutely, but they are still far, far ahead of the other services in the market.”

So, that poor performance, which should be offset thanks to the July success of Stranger Things and a sluggish start to summer at the box office, shows that Netflix is in for a tougher road ahead, but isn't out of the game.

Here are some of the reasons why the loss of popular licensed shows and looming competition don’t spell doom and gloom for Netflix, and how it can improve its content and corporate behavior to keep growing:

Losing “Comfort-Food Content” Isn’t a Dealbreaker

Based on reports from Nielsen and other analyses, as well as Netflix’s own admission, The Office and Friends were among the service’s most popular programs. The exact data is still mysterious, though—in regards to The Office, Netflix only said, “In 2018, it was streamed for over 52 billion minutes, and in April 2019, it was viewed nearly twice as much as the next most-viewed program on [streaming video on demand].”

But that only tells the public how it fared in comparison to other shows, not the total share of streams. The popularity of Friends is also still a mystery, though as Jeffrey Cole, founder and director of the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future, points out, “The fact they’d pay $100 million for one year of Friends shows how much value they put on it.” A new poll of over 11,000 Netflix subscribers by research firm MoffettNathanson showed that out of the 20 most popular shows on the service, 15 were originals, with Orange Is the New Black and Stranger Things leading the way. Of the four licensed shows on the list, The Office and Friends were at nine and 10, respectively, behind other Netflix originals and the catch-all category of “movies.”

“It’s popular but does it make you stay?” says Rayburn. “Popular doesn’t matter—you simply care whether or not that content is a driver to keep a subscriber or to lose a subscriber. I don’t know anybody who’s going, ‘I’ve got to sign up with HBO Max because they have Friends.’”

There’s Lots of Competition But Few Details About It

Of the many upcoming streaming services, only Disney’s has offered concrete details surrounding its launch. We know it will debut Nov. 12, will cost $6.99 per month, and feature the company’s backlog of movies, including its Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars catalog. NBCUniversal says its service will come with two options, a free ad-supported version for cable subscribers and a premium tier, price to be announced but rumored to be $10 to $14, for ad-free viewing and those without cable.

HBO Max will reportedly cost $16 to $17 a month, with HBO’s back catalog and many Warner Media shows including, as per its corporate parent AT&T’s announcement, Friends, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, and Pretty Little Liars. “The three biggest pieces of content that makes their service so revolutionary. You’re HBO and you’re leading with that?” says Rayburn.

Apple TV+, meanwhile, doesn’t have a set launch date, price, or any information on how people who don’t have Apple devices will be able to watch it. The only announcements so far are a handful of original shows and deals with the likes of Oprah, Steven Spielberg, J.J. Abrams, and Jennifer Aniston.

While it appears Disney+ will be a hit, it also doesn’t seem positioned as a Netflix killer. “The only one who brings anything special to the party is Disney ‘cause they’re the only studio that ever had a brand,” says Cole. “The $6.99 is a brilliant number. I don’t think people make the decision, ‘Netflix or Disney.’”

Netflix Is Improving Its Original Content (But Still Has Work to Do)

Once all the services are up and running, the deciding factor of how people spend their money will come down to the quality, quantity, and consistency of original content. Netflix is obviously doing very well with programming like Orange Is the New Black and Stranger Things, but it will need modify its approach to keep people from canceling and renewing their subscriptions between services when the most buzzed-about shows come out.

“Everybody’s competing now for the same eyeballs and the same dollars,” says Rayburn. “Consumers are not going to sign up for 10 services, so they’ll have to pick and choose what content they want, because these services are all creating what looks like really good original content. Hulu noticed people starting and stopping their live service all the time. Basketball season picks up and they take it for two months then stop for three. It’s very easy to switch, which is great for consumers. They’ll jump and jump and jump.”

Netflix has already started its transition from a “breadth and depth” service with tens of thousands of titles to a more selective, curated library, which presents both problems and opportunity.

Netflix had nothing but green fields when it was “whoever’s better at figuring out how to stream smoothly was going to grab the whole market,” says Stephan Paternot, the CEO of Slated, an online film-financing marketplace, pairing projects with investors and distributors. “‘Phase one,’ as I call it, was to grab as much streaming subscriber-ship as you can in the world. ‘Phase two’ is, ‘How do we make the best content, and now be cost-effective about it?’ Netflix is discovering that making a thousand shows so you can find 10 good ones is very capital inefficient. How are they all going to scale up their content to appeal to audiences of different languages, cultures, interests, on a global level?”

Cole agrees that Netflix will have to be better about its costs but sees a different solution than continuing to produce so many shows. “Netflix has to make less and better programming. HBO does more with $2.5 billion than Netflix does with $12 billion,” he says. “One thing I think is interesting is their phenomenon of not letting many series go beyond the second or third season. That’s kept them from stockpiling a hundred episodes of a show like The Office.”

Even though it’s losing shows like that, the years of having them are invaluable to Netflix. “As legacy television programs are pulled by conglomerates building their own streaming platforms, Netflix is going to rely on the viewing data they have collected while having these licenses to guide their programming development, as far as genre, producer or known talent,” says Eleanor Patterson, assistant professor of Media Studies at Auburn University. “Consider, for instance, the Netflix deal with Adam Sandler or their investment in teen television and films. These were direct results of their user data on licensed programming like Sandler films or classic teen comedies from the 1980s and 1990s.” After all, we all saw how well Sandler’s latest movie, Murder Mystery, performed globally.

Netflix Can Always Create an Ad-Supported Tier

It might not sound like a popular idea, but going with an ad-supported version might be a great business move for Netflix. “Nobody likes commercials, but if you want to go from 150 million subscribers to a billion, you’re going to have to find a way to give people a taste of your service for an extended period of time for free,” says Paternot. “Spotify is getting everyone hooked with unlimited usage, but the service is so damn good that 50% of people purchased the subscription. Hulu is accomplishing the same thing. They’re doing well with the ad-supported side, but there’s enough reasons to subscribe with higher definition and commercial-free.”

It Can Also Keep Licensing Content, Big and Small

Even with the high-profile departures of sitcoms and the Disney catalog, there is plenty of film and television out that’s not controlled by any current or upcoming service. Cole has one suggestion in mind: “If I were Netflix, I'd lock down Sony and Paramount as fast as possible.”

It can also make deals with smaller production companies to fill any content voids. “They’re figuring out what the studios long ago figured it out, which is, ‘It’s easier for us just to make a dozen really, really big features that travel really well and we’ll just work with specialty companies in the market to fill the more niche content, the more prestige stuff,” says Paternot. “The studios acquired and partnered with all these different smaller production companies, but then even over the last two decades, have been dismantling them. Netflix has been building up their infrastructure to handle big, medium, and small projects. It still has an advantage in its ability to monetize medium to small that the bigger studios don’t have yet. It’s time for them to start pivoting [to that] and batten down the hatches.”

Finally, Netflix Can Bank on Loyalty

The MoffettNathanson poll of Netflix users showed that they’re a loyal bunch, even if the costs were to rise: “26% of survey respondents reported they would tolerate a $1-2 increase while a further 28% would be willing to pay over $2 more.” (That number doesn’t account for the 14% of users who use a Netflix account paid for by someone else, which stems from the yet-unsolved issue of password sharing among users.)

Cole refers to people sticking with a service or brand they know and enjoy, despite minor changes, as “inertia.” As he points out, “There are still 2 million people who subscribe to AOL to get email.”

Overall, he says Netflix will be fine, a sentiment Rayburn, Paternot, and Patterson agree with, but it will have to work smarter than ever before to compete. “My view is not that they’re going to disappear, but they’re going to be one of several services now and that's going to make it harder to grow the way they have. They don’t own the party now.”