在蒙托克舉辦的金融頭腦風暴大會已經過了一個多月。《財富》雜志對會上透露的各類信息以及在采訪高管過程中發現的重要趨勢進行了梳理。

以下是我們所搜集的最引人注目的預測和主題：

1. Facebook的Libra加密貨幣可能會難產

Facebook在金融頭腦風暴大會舉辦的前一天宣布了Libra項目，自然而然地也就成為了大會的一個焦點。但一個反復出現的懷疑論斷給參與者的樂觀主義澆了一盆冷水：這款加密貨幣真能和世人見面嗎？Digital Group的首席執行官巴瑞·斯爾伯特在會場外向《財富》雜志透露：“發行Libra是一個令人振奮的事情，然而問題在于，它是否以及在什么時候發行？”

Circle的首席執行官杰瑞米·阿萊爾提到，如果一種穩定幣并非與單一法幣掛鉤，而是涉及一攬子不同國家的貨幣，那么打造這類穩定幣會遇到監管障礙和其他諸多復雜性。阿萊爾在另一個采訪中對《財富》雜志說：“我覺得個人、企業和政府最終都得接受這件事情，因此，我們想看看Libra是否能夠推出，及其推出后會產生什么樣的反響。”

2. 大銀行的境況沒有那么糟糕

將自家公司Clarity Money銷售給高盛消費銀行Marcus的亞當·戴爾如今擔任Marcus的產品負責人，他以其在金融頭腦風暴會議上的精辟言論獲得了不少關注。他說：“現在僅存在兩類銀行：一種是已經搞砸的銀行，一種是并不知道自己已經搞砸了的銀行。”

但他的雇主高盛似乎并不在這兩類之列，而出席大會的首席執行官們所代表的其他大型銀行亦是如此，這些銀行在全球都有著龐大的規模，資產達到了數萬億美元。（如果對比金融科技初創企業以及互聯網銀行，我們會發現這些領域的領軍企業每家也才積攢了不到數十億美元的身家）。《財富》雜志的執行編輯賴新基直接向花旗的首席執行官高沛德轉述了戴爾的言論，高沛德回答道：“如果你對此否認的話，那可就真是弄砸了。我想說的是，作為一家機構，我們絕對沒有矢口否認這件事情。”他還指出，花旗如果還是安于現狀的話可能就已經“完蛋”了，“但我們是一家有著200年歷史的機構，曾經經歷了多次重構，這也是我們當前正在做的事情。”高沛德還稱自己是區塊鏈的“堅定信仰者”。

參加大會開幕式的美國銀行首席執行官布萊恩·莫伊尼漢還提供了一組生動的數據來解釋自家公司不會落后的原因。他說：“我認為美國銀行在區塊鏈領域的專利比其他任何銀行都多。”

3. 亞馬遜可能會進軍銀行業

我的同事駱杰峰在展會上指出，“亞馬遜有開設一家銀行所需的所有條件。”其中的一個主要條件在于：它與客戶之間有著緊密的關系。羅伯特·哈克特表示：“從一些消費心理來看，人們對亞馬遜的喜愛遠遠超過了其對銀行的喜愛。”

然而在大會上，Amazon Pay的副總裁帕特里克·高迪耶給這個觀點澆了盆冷水：“我們有能力打造某項業務的事實并不代表我們就應該去做這件事情。”然而，他并沒有完全否定亞馬遜在遙遠未來的某個時間進軍銀行業的可能性，也沒有嘲笑“亞馬遜只要自己愿意就可以組建銀行”的這個理念。

第二天，有人問花旗的高沛德，如果亞馬遜或其他大型科技公司打造一家有競爭力的數字銀行，他是否會感到擔心。高沛德表示：“我們經常被問到這個問題。我并不知道這些企業自身的抱負或意圖，但我想說的是，在我們看來，這類事情并非是必然的，但也不會因此而輕敵。我們并沒有輕視亞馬遜，也必然不會輕視Facebook以及任何擁有數十億用戶的公司，我覺得我們有必要關注這件事情。”很明顯，大型銀行不會排除將亞馬遜列為潛在競爭對手的可能性。

4. 千禧一代的凈值正在膨脹

多年來，有關千禧一代的報道大都集中于其沉重的學費貸款負擔，以及他們與前幾代相比較為悲觀的財務前景，因為其中有很多都畢業于在大蕭條期間或前后。美國銀行最近的一次計算顯示，2018年，僅有16%的千禧一代有至少10萬美元的存款。

然而在金融頭腦風暴大會上，高管們則描述了一個不一樣的千禧一代。Wealthfront的首席執行官安迪·拉什勒夫說：“他們并非一直都待在地下室吞云吐霧。”然后他補充說：“他們正處于其人生的財富積累階段。” Wealthfront是一家智能投資咨詢公司，其客戶主要是千禧一代。

嘉信理財的首席執行官瓦爾特·貝丁格同時指出，每年中介公司會接納數十萬千禧一代，而且這些人占到了Schwab新客戶數量的一半以上（53%）。這些人的平均凈值？每戶的家庭資產達到了35萬美元，貝丁格補充道。“因此公司當前千禧一代客戶的平均財富值已經達到了這個水平。”（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

審校：夏林

Now that we’ve had a little more than a month to decompress from our time in Montauk for Brainstorm Finance, we’ve been reflecting on everything we learned and culling the key trends that emerged from our discussions with top executives.

Here are a few of the most salient predictions and themes we gleaned:

1. Facebook may struggle to launch its Libra Cryptocurrency

As Facebook announced its Project Libra the day before Brainstorm Finance kicked off, naturally it was the talk of the conference. But one persistent theme tempered attendees’ optimism: Skepticism that the cryptocurrency could actually get off the ground. “Libra is a very exciting moment when it launches—certainly the question is if and when it’ll launch,” Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group, told Fortune on the sidelines of the conference.

Jeremy Allaire, the CEO of Circle, pointed to regulatory hurdles and other complexities involved with creating a stablecoin backed by not just one fiat currency, but a basket of various nations’ monetary notes. “I think that’s something that both individuals, businesses and governments will have to ultimately get comfortable with, so it’ll be interesting to see if Libra is able to launch and how that’s perceived,” Allaire told Fortune in a separate interview.

2. Big banks aren’t really all that screwed

Adam Dell, who sold his company Clarity Money to Goldman Sachs’s consumer bank Marcus and now serves as its head of product, made some headlines with his pithy comments at Brainstorm Finance: “There are only two kinds of banks— there are banks that are screwed, and banks that don’t know they are screwed,” he said.

But his employer, Goldman Sachs, didn’t seem to fall into either category, nor did the other big banks that were represented by their CEOs at the conference, with their vast global scale and trillions of dollars in assets. (Compare that to fintech startups and challenger banks, where even the leading companies have yet to amass more than a few billion each.) Fortune executive editor Adam Lashinsky put Dell’s comments directly to Citi CEO Michael Corbat, who responded, “You’re screwed if you’re in denial. and I would say as an institution we’re absolutely not in denial.” Citi would be “dead” if it stuck to the status quo, he added, “But we’re a 200-year-old institution that’s reimagined itself several times, and we are very much in that process today.” Corbat also described himself as a “true believer” in blockchain technology.

Bank of America, whose CEO Brian Moynihan opened the conference, also offered a telling statistic to illustrate why his company wouldn’t be left behind: “We have more blockchain patents I think than anybody else does now,” he said.

3. Amazon could come for banks

As my colleague Jeff Roberts put it on this show, “Amazon has all the ingredients to be a bank.” One main ingredient: Its close relationship with customers. Added Robert Hackett, “If you look at some of the consumer sentiment, people like Amazon way more than they like their banks.”

At the conference, though, Patrick Gauthier, vice president of Amazon Pay, threw cold water on the idea: “The fact that we can build something doesn’t mean that we should,” he said. Still, he didn’t entirely rule out a banking foray sometime further off in the future—nor did he scoff at the idea that Amazon could very well build a bank if it wanted to.

The following day, Citi’s Corbat was asked whether he feared that Amazon or another big tech company would build a competing digital bank. “It’s a question we get asked frequently,” Corbat acknowledged. “I don’t know their ambition or intentions per se, but what I would say is, we don’t take anything for granted and we’re not dismissive. We’re not dismissive of Amazon, I'm sure we’ll get to Facebook—anybody who’s got a couple billion users, I think you need to pay attention to.” It’s clear the big banks aren’t writing off Amazon as a potential competitor one day.

4. Millennials’ net worths are bulging

For years, the popular narrative around the millennial generation has been that their heavy student debt burdens and the fact that many of them graduated during or around the Great Recession would condemn them to a dimmer financial outlook than prior generations. At Bank of America’s last count, in 2018, only 16% of millennials had saved at least $100,000.

At Brainstorm Finance, though, executives painted a different picture of millennials. “They’re not all sitting in their basements smoking weed all the time,” said Andy Rachleff, the CEO of Wealthfront, a robo-advisor whose customers are primarily millennials. And, he added, “They’re in the wealth accumulation phase of their lives.”

Walt Bettinger, the CEO of Charles Schwab, meanwhile, said that hundreds of thousands of millennials are now flocking to the brokerage annually, and make up more than half (53%) of Schwab’s new accounts. Their average net worth? $350,000 in household assets, Bettinger added. “So the average millennial we’re winning has that level of affluence today already.”