原本說起來，零工經濟應該成為人類未來的工作方式。每一代人都希望享受工作自由，短期合同制工作就是實現的新方式。

至少過去專家是這樣說的。而據《華爾街日報》報道，兩位當代最知名的經濟學家現在表示，2015年發布的研究觀點是錯的。普林斯頓大學教授艾倫·克魯格和哈佛大學教授勞倫斯·卡茨之所以改變看法，是因為數據不全面，而且沒有考慮經濟衰退的影響。

2015年克魯格和卡茨在論文中指出，工作的性質在改變。借助Uber和TaskRabbit等智能手機平臺應用，人們可以通過零工謀生。

但隨著時間推移，兩位經濟學家預期的趨勢變化并未出現。美國勞工統計局發現，2005年到2017年工作領域幾乎沒有變化。2017年，從事“非傳統工作”的勞動者約占勞動力總人口的10%。《紐約時報》指出，這一比例低于2015年的11%。

不僅如此，擁有固定職業的人還增加了。保守派智庫美國企業研究所的經濟政策研究主管邁克爾·R·斯崔恩向《紐約時報》表示：“我認為，大家言過其實了。”

的確如此。在克魯格和卡茨看來，零工經濟蓬勃發展的原因是人們靠打臨時工維持生計。然而政府在追蹤身兼多職就業者相關數據方面做得很差，導致情況更難判斷。

“我和勞倫斯·卡茨現在的結論是，過去十年，非傳統工作的勞動者占比增長微弱，可能（增速）只有一兩個百分點，沒有達到我們最初估計的五個百分點。”克魯格對《華爾街日報》表示。（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

The gig economy was supposed to be the future of work. All generations wanted the freedom and short-term contract work was the new norm.

At least, that’s what the experts had said. But two of the most well-known economists—Alan Krueger of Princeton University and Lawrence Katz of Harvard—now say their influential 2015 study was wrong, as the Wall Street Journal reported. What threw them off was inadequate data and the recession.

Back then, Kreuger and Katz asserted that the nature of work was changing. People were creating a living out of odd jobs through smartphone platform apps such as Uber and TaskRabbit.

But over time, the expected changes didn’t come. The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that between 2005 and 2017, virtually nothing had changed in the world of work. People in “alternative work arrangements” made up about 10% of the total workforce. As the New York Times pointed out, that was down from 11% in 2005.

Even more people held regular jobs. At the time, Michael R. Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute told the Times, “I think everybody’s narrative got blown up.”

Indeed. According to the two academics, the gig economy seemed to explode as people were taking part-time work to make ends meet. Compounding that factor was the poor way the government tracks people with multiple jobs.

“Larry Katz and I now conclude that there was a modest rise in the share of the workforce in nontraditional jobs over the last decade—probably on the order of one to two percentage points, instead of the five percentage point rise we originally reported,” Kreuger told the Journal.