隨著一場交通“災難”得以避免，紐約市的一小塊地段看來又成了黃金地段。不過誰會從此事中受益，是房東、租客、買房者還是企業，卻是一個值得爭論的問題。

2012年，往返于曼哈頓和布魯克林的L線地鐵在颶風“桑迪”肆虐期間被洪水灌入，造成了線路設施受損。為了對受損路段進行維修，紐約州政府原計劃于2019年4月27日起對L線地鐵實施停運維修。不過紐約州州長安德魯·庫默在上周四出人意料地宣布，L線地鐵原定的停運整修計劃將暫不實施，L線地鐵未來15個月內仍將繼續運營，至少是部分時間運營。

紐約房地產公司理想地產集團（Ideal Properties Group）的常務董事亞歷山大·斯帕諾維奇告訴《財富》雜志：“L線地鐵停運計劃被取消是一個喜人的消息，預計它將導致威廉斯堡地區的房屋租售行為有所增加。另外，有些人受地鐵停運影響，本打算搬離這一區域一兩年，但現在他們可能會回心轉意，繼續住在這里。”

在過去十年多時間里，布魯克林的威廉斯堡社區和綠點社區的租金逐年大幅上漲。隨著這里的高層公寓一棟棟拔地而起，各大連鎖商超紛紛進駐，很多年輕人當上了房東，還有很多科技、金融行業的從業者在此購房，這里也成了孵化城市“新中產”的溫床。

隨著L線地鐵停運維修的消息傳出，當地企業和居民對失去這條交通“生命線”深感憂慮。為了將房子租出去，不少房東也推出了種種激勵政策，有的提出可以免收一個月的房租，有的提供了網約車優惠。還有些業主干脆想離開這個社區。雖然L線地鐵取消停運的消息令不少地鐵通勤族松了一口氣，但并不是所有人都對庫莫的聲明感到滿意，而L線地鐵也留下了不少仍未解決的問題。

RIPCO房地產公司布魯克林辦事處的零售經紀業務總經理賈森·彭寧頓表示：“上周四的新聞肯定會提升上述所有業務類別的信心水平，因為他們知道，顧客出行不便的問題將會得以緩解。”不過彭寧頓也指出，受夜間和周末施工的影響，L線地鐵的運營班次肯定會有很大變化。這對于那些比較依賴游客和城市其他區域居民的本地企業及餐館來說也依然是個問題。

霍斯德地產公司（Halstead）的經紀人華納·劉易斯指出，在上周四的聲明發布之前，當地的房地產市場一直在下跌。“很多開發商把房子從市場上撤了下來，然后重新定一個更低的價格。房東們在租金上讓步也很大，個人賣家也只有降價才能把房賣出去。”

威廉斯堡社區的居民、建筑設計公司梅斯伯格集團（Meshberg Group）的創始人及負責人亞當·梅斯伯格也認為，當地房地產市場最近日趨疲軟。但他認為情況可能會很快就會好轉。

他表示：“有一個客戶今天打電話過來，說他們打算以低于市場價的價格出租一套房子，租期兩年。不過就在簽訂合同之前的幾分鐘，他們聽到了這個消息。然后他們就改了主意，不想再以低價出租了。”

斯帕諾維奇認為，L線地鐵取消停運，無論對房東和租客都是好事。最明顯的一點就是租客和買房者不用再擔心通勤受到嚴重干擾。而房東和賣房者也能像以前一樣正常交易了。

布魯克林的MNS房地產公司的CEO安德魯·巴洛克斯表示：“每個人都以為房主從中獲益最多，但其實這個消息對租房者和購房者也帶來了重大利好。居民可以讓他們的孩子在城市里上學，自己也可以上班。當然，房主也獲得了利益。這并不是非黑即白的。”

對于一些想搶低租金房的租客來說，留給他們的機會窗口已經很窄了。

斯帕諾維奇表示：“紐約的冬季氣溫總是會對房價產生影響——無論是對賣房價格還是租金，今年也不例外。下一步，價格很可能會向上調整。等到過幾個月天氣變暖了，它的刺激效應可能就會有所減弱。”

劉易斯指出，L線地鐵取消停運計劃的影響會立即在租房市場上表現出來。“各種讓步會逐漸減少，市場上的潛在租客會增加。這也是威廉斯堡的房東們在2019年最希望得到的一份大禮。”

這條至關重要的交通線也有助于提振周邊的房地產市場，特別是北邊近在咫尺的長島市，亞馬遜公司剛剛宣布計劃在那里建設一個新總部。另據近日最新發布的數據，紐約皇后區公寓的搜索量和詢盤量幾乎立即出現了飆升。L線地鐵的繼續運營，意味著從威廉斯堡可以直達谷歌在曼哈頓西側的基地。而谷歌最近也打算在南邊不遠處沿哈德遜河建一個新園區。

紐約長島經紀公司Modern Spaces的創始人及CEO埃里克·貝納姆表示，有些地段盼著L線地鐵停運，就是為了將人流吸引到他們的社區和樓盤。現在這些地段自己也必須變得更有競爭力才行。

斯帕諾維奇認為，未來亞馬遜新建的長島總部的員工中，將有相當一部分選擇住在綠點和威廉斯堡社區，以及曼哈頓的中城東區，和皇后區長島市北部的阿斯托利亞。

“亞馬遜選擇長島市作為總部所在地，這也是一種本地化的市場力量，很可能導致該地區租金和房產銷售價格的上漲。” 斯帕諾維奇說。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

With a transit “apocalypse” avoided, a small area of real estate in New York City looks prime again. But who stands to benefit—whether it be landlords, renters, buyers, or businesses—is now a question up for debate in and beyond the five boroughs.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo made the surprise announcement on last Thursday the L train subway tunnel between Manhattan and Brooklyn will not be shutting down for 15 months—previously scheduled to start on April 27, 2019—as originally planned. The L train will continue to run throughout that period, at least sometimes. The closure had been in the works for years in order to repair damage incurred during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, when the subway tunnel was submerged by floodwaters.

“The news of L-pocalypse avoided is a welcome development, and is expected to result in an upswing of renting and buying activity in Williamsburg,” Aleksandra Scepanovic, managing director of New York real estate firm Ideal Properties Group, tells Fortune. “People who may have been considering moving out of the area for a year or two because of the shutdown are likely to reverse their thinking and stay put.”

Brooklyn’s Williamsburg and Greenpoint neighborhoods have steadily seen rents rise sharply over the last decade, but are also often derided as hotbeds of gentrification with an influx of luxury high-rises, mass market retailers, and a younger professional crowd of renters and buyers often working in tech and finance.

With the news of an official shutdown, local businesses and residents had been dreading a future without a vital transit link to the area, and many landlords were offering incentives, from a free month of rent to Uber credits, to keep tenants as some renters already prepared to leave the neighborhood altogether. While perhaps a relief to some current L train straphangers, not everyone was pleased with Cuomo’s announcement right away, and there is still no shortage of unanswered questions.

“Last Thursday’s news will definitely raise the confidence level of all the above business categories knowing that their customers will be much less inconvenienced. If they haven’t moved, residents looking to leave will reconsider,” says Jason Pennington, managing director of retail brokerage at RIPCO Real Estate’s Brooklyn office. But given that there will still be significant schedule changes with night and weekend construction work, Pennington warns the shutdown could still be an issue for local businesses and restaurants catering to tourists and outer borough residents.

Before last Thursday’s announcement, the local real estate market was down—and continuing to go down, according to Warner Lewis, an agent at Halstead, a real estate firm covering the tri-state area. “Many developers had pulled units off the market and were repricing them lower, landlords were giving very robust concessions, and individual sellers were having to discount prices to get deals done.”

Adam Meshberg, a resident of Williamsburg as well as founder and principal of architecture and design firm Meshberg Group, concurred that the market had been getting softer, but suggested things could turn around quickly.

“One client called today and shared they were about to rent one of their units for a two-year contract under market value to fill the space,” Meshberg said. “Minutes before signing the contract, they heard the announcement and are no longer renting it under value.”

Scepanovic thinks both landlords and tenants could stand to benefit from the news, the most obvious being tenants and buyers won’t have to worry about a significant disruption to their commutes. Landlords and sellers, of course, will be able to continue with business as usual.

“Everyone wants to hear that it’s the landlords who will benefit the most, but there is a tremendous benefit to the renters and buyers,” adds Andrew Barrocas, CEO of MNS Real Estate in Brooklyn. “Residents can get their kids to school in the city, get to work, etc. And of course, landlords will reap the benefit. It’s not black and white.”

For prospective tenants who might have been hoping to take advantage of what were expected to be lower rents, there might still be a small—very small—window of opportunity.

“Winter temperatures in New York City always have a cooling effect on property prices—both on sales and rental fronts, and this year is no exception,” Scepanovic says. “The pricing is likely to correct upward, and the incentives may start falling off in the warmer months ahead.”

For rentals, specifically, the difference will be felt immediately, Lewis says. “Concessions will pull back and there will be more potential tenants in the market,” he explained. “This is the biggest possible gift in 2019 that landlords in Williamsburg could have hoped for.”

The crucial transit link also helps with the real estate market for surrounding neighborhoods—perhaps most notably to the immediate north in Long Island City, where Amazon just announced it is planning to open a massive new headquarters. Within days (and even days before) the HQ2 reveal late last year, apartment listing searches and bids for condos in the Queens neighborhood surged immediately. Keeping the L train alive will also mean Williamsburg is directly linked to Google’s current base on the western side of Manhattan as the Internet giant plans another New York campus not too far south along the Hudson River.

Eric Benaim, CEO and founder of Long Island City-based brokerage firm Modern Spaces, says that other markets that were betting on the L train shutting down as a way to drive more traffic to their neighborhoods and buildings will have to be more competitive now.

Scepanovic suspects that a substantial portion of the incoming Amazon HQ staff working in Long Island City will likely settle in Greenpoint and Williamsburg as well as Manhattan’s Midtown East and Astoria, just to the north of Long Island City in Queens.

“The selection of LIC as the Amazon’s partial HQ destination is yet another localized market force, the expression of which is likely to result in the increase of rental and sales prices in the area,” Scepanovic says.