油價上漲的原因是交易商在評估沙特的威脅——作為全球最大的石油出口國，沙特表示如果因為政府批評人士失蹤而受到制裁，將采取報復措施。

交易商將沙特外交部的聲明視為其可能把石油供應作為政治武器的警告，受此影響，紐約時段原油期貨價格一度上漲1.9%。但油價隨后回吐之前漲幅，原因是人們懷疑作為石油輸出國組織（OPEC）最強大的成員，沙特是否會采取這樣的極端方式。

美國總統唐納德·特朗普已表示，如果沙特和記者賈馬爾·哈蘇吉的失蹤有關，將對其實施“嚴厲懲罰”。倘若沙特真以石油資源進行反擊，就將放棄幾十年來奉行的原油高于政治的原則。在最近和加拿大的外交口水戰中，盡管沙特切斷了兩國的大多數經濟聯系，但沙特國有石油公司沙特阿美仍在向一家加拿大煉油廠提供石油。

瑞銀集團駐蘇黎世分析師吉奧瓦尼·斯陶諾沃認為：“市場將體現出一定的風險溢價。雖然近年來沙特一直沒有將石油用于政治，但和特朗普總統一樣，沙特王儲也不是普通政治人物，還不清楚今后他將作何反應。但如果沙特的原油出口保持不變，這樣的風險溢價將再次消失。”

由于需求前景變差，加之全球股市暴跌，促使投資者規避大宗商品等風險資產，本月初創下四年新高后油價已回落6%以上。不過，由于美國的制裁將限制伊朗的石油出口，交易商仍懷疑OPEC及其伙伴能否彌補伊朗的潛在供應損失。

在紐約商品交易所，11月交割的西德州中質原油期貨一度上漲1.36美元，報每桶72.70美元，倫敦時間本周一上午10:16的價格為71.54美元。上周其價格下跌4%，降至71.34美元。本周一的總成交量超過百日均線18%左右。

在倫敦ICE歐洲期貨交易所，12月交割的布倫特原油期貨最高漲幅達到1.49美元，或1.9%，報每桶81.92美元。上周該期貨下滑4.4%，降至80.43美元，創4月初以來的最大單周跌幅。同月交割的全球基準原油期貨價格比西德州中質原油高9.53美元。

哈蘇吉10月2日進入沙特駐伊斯坦布爾領事館后失蹤。美國政府越發認為沙特否認與此有任何關系的說法站不住腳。《華盛頓郵報》報道，土耳其官員表示，他們掌握的錄音錄像顯示沙特安全部隊小組控制了哈蘇吉，隨后將其殺害并肢解了他的尸體。

作為OPEC的最大產油國，沙特的作用已經變得更為關鍵，市場正在等待該組織主要成員彌補伊朗、委內瑞拉等國的生產缺口。1973-1974年沙特帶頭進行石油禁運時確實將原油當作武器，這次的威脅則讓沙特和美國的親密關系出現了意外轉折。

雖然特朗普不愿取消數百萬美元的沙特軍售項目，因為擔心此舉會讓這位盟友轉投俄羅斯或中國，但美國政府正在討論其他懲罰措施，包括降低外交等級和制裁沙特官員。

沙特國有媒體阿拉伯電視臺負責人圖爾基·阿爾達克希爾發表文章稱，美國制裁沙特可能使油價突破每桶200美元，從而給全球經濟帶來巨大災難。沙特駐華盛頓大使館高級顧問費薩爾·本·法爾漢則在推特上表示，這些話不代表沙特政府的態度。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Oil rose as traders assessed a threat by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, to retaliate against any punishment over the disappearance of a government critic.

Futures climbed as much as 1.9% in New York as traders viewed the Saudi Foreign Ministry statement as a warning that the kingdom could use oil supplies as a political weapon. Yet gains later eased amid doubts that OPEC’s most powerful member would take such an extreme course.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised “ severe punishment” should Saudi Arabia be linked to the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If the Saudis do use their crude resources to hit back, it would be a break from their decades-old policy of putting petroleum above politics. During a recent diplomatic spat with Canada, state-owned producer Aramco continued to supply a refinery there even though Riyadh severed most other economic links.

“The market will price in some risk premium,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “While Saudi Arabia hasn’t used politics in recent years, its crown prince — like President Trump — isn’t an ordinary politician and it’s unclear how he’ll react going forward. But if Saudi crude exports remain unchanged, this risk premium will disappear again.”

Crude has retreated more than 6% after reaching a four-year high earlier this month as a darkening demand outlook, coupled with global stock-market routs, spur investors to shun risky assets including commodities. Still, traders continue to speculate whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners can offset potential supply losses from Iran as U.S. sanctions are set to curb oil exports from the Persian Gulf state.

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose as much as $1.36 to $72.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $71.54 as of 10:16 a.m. London time. The contract slid 4% to $71.34 last week. Total volume traded Monday was about 18% above the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement climbed as much as $1.49, or 1.9%, to $81.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices declined 4.4% to $80.43 last week, the biggest weekly drop since early April. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.53 premium to WTI for the same month.

Khashoggi hasn’t been seen since entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. The U.S. administration is said to increasingly regard the kingdom’s denial of any involvement in his disappearance as untenable. Turkish officials say they have audio and video recordings showing a Saudi security team detained the journalist before killing him and dismembering his body, according to the Washington Post.

As OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia has taken on an even more crucial role as the market awaits moves from key producers to make up for lost barrels from Iran to Venezuela. Although the kingdom did use energy as a weapon when it led an oil embargo in 1973-1974, its current threats mark a surprising turn in an otherwise warm relationship with the U.S.

While Trump is reluctant to cancel multimillion-dollar arms sales to Saudi Arabia out of concern its ally will turn to Russia or China instead, a range of other punishments are under discussion within the administration, including downgrading diplomatic relations and sanctioning Saudi officials.

Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the Saudi state-owned Arabiya news network, wrote in an article that U.S. sanctions against Saudi Arabia could wreak havoc on the global economy by taking oil prices beyond $200 a barrel. Faisal bin Farhan, a senior adviser to the Saudi embassy in Washington, said on Twitter that those comments don’t represent the Saudi leadership.