蘋果（Apple）首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫克銷售高價iPhone的策略是否取得了效果？華爾街莫衷一是。而看起來，他們還需要至少六個月的時間才能得出結(jié)論。

上周二，蘋果發(fā)布了截至3月31日的季度財報，并得到了投資者的正面反饋。公司收入提高了16%至611億美元，與分析師預(yù)測的一樣；iPhone銷量達到5,220萬部，也與華爾街的預(yù)期相差無幾。

此外，公司還試圖討好投資者，聲稱要回購1,000億美元股票，并提高16%的股息。這種破費往往會取悅投資者。

不過縱使蘋果股價在盤后交易中上漲了4%，也只是回到了175美元左右，這是去年11月以及之后幾個月中來回波動的水平。而華爾街預(yù)測的蘋果業(yè)績，也是分析師花了幾周時間調(diào)低預(yù)期的結(jié)果。他們擔(dān)心高價的iPhone可能嚇跑一些消費者，尤其是在新興市場。

就在一周前，分析師對蘋果收入的預(yù)測平均值還是519億美元。而花旗集團（Citigroup）的分析師吉姆·蘇瓦幾乎在一個月前就預(yù)測到了蘋果1,000億美元的股票回購。

蘋果現(xiàn)在顯然做得不錯，不過公司未來增長的來源卻仍然朦朧未明。

首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫克把握了每一個與分析師舉行電話會議的機會，來宣揚iPhone尤其是iPhone X的前景。庫克在電話會議中屢次表示，iPhone X面世以來，一直是蘋果的熱銷機型，也是中國賣得最好的手機，試圖借此回應(yīng)一些分析師的負面敘述。

他表示：“iPhone X是一款飽受喜愛的產(chǎn)品。我認為它類似于贏得超級碗（Super Bowl）的球隊，你可能希望他們再多贏幾分，但他們已經(jīng)獲得超級碗了。我對這款產(chǎn)品感到無比驕傲。”

對于高價iPhone能否熱賣的爭論可以追溯到去年9月。除了推出1,000美元的全新機型之外，蘋果還把升級款的iPhone 8定價699美元，較之前一年的版本貴了50美元或8%，把iPhone 8 Plus定價799美元，較之前一年的大屏版本貴了30美元或4%。新機型開售六個月以來，蘋果手機的銷量為1.295億部，同比增長僅有0.4%，但它們的售價更高，因此收入增長了14%，達到996億美元。

真正的問題在于，這種收入增長的幅度，蘋果還能保持多久？要維持這樣的增速，今年的新機型就要賣得更貴，否則在許多人認為已經(jīng)飽和的全球智能手機市場，蘋果賣出的手機數(shù)還必須再次增加。

庫克激烈地反對這種說法，指出全球去年共賣出了約5億部簡單的功能手機。他表示：“許多這類手機進入了新興市場。我們?nèi)匀幌嘈牛S著時間的推移，所有的手機都會是智能手機。在我們看來，還有這么多功能手機在賣，就意味著還有巨大的機會。”

當(dāng)然，蘋果也在其他領(lǐng)域發(fā)展，例如Apple Music等服務(wù)和AirPods和Apple Watch等可穿戴設(shè)備。但是這些業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模只相當(dāng)于iPhone的一小部分，利潤空間也無法與后者匹敵。

目前來看，華爾街的爭論還將持續(xù)很長時間。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴匡正?

Wall Street hasn’t been able to figure out whether Apple CEO Tim Cook’s gambit to sell higher priced iPhones is working. And it looks like it’s going to take more than six months to figure it out.

On Tuesday, Apple reported results for the quarter ending March 31 that received a positive reception from investors. Revenue jumped 16% to $61.1 billion, just as analysts had forecast, and iPhone sales reached 52.2 million, also about what Wall Street expected.

Additionally, the company tried to curry favor with investors by pledging to buy back another $100 billion of its own stock and raise its dividend by 16%. That kind of spending often pleases investors.

But the almost 4% jump in Apple’s stock price in after-hours trading only got the shares back to around $175, the same level where they were back in November and have bounced around for the intervening months. And the Wall Street forecasts that Apple met were a result of weeks of analysts reducing their projections based on fears the higher priced iPhones might scare off some customers, particularly in emerging markets.

As recently a week ago, the average analyst revenue forecast was $51.9 billion. And Citigroup analyst Jim Suva predicted the $100 billion share buyback level almost a month ago.

Apple is clearly doing well for now, but the sources of future growth may still be murky.

CEO Tim Cook took every opportunity on a call with analysts to pump up the iPhone’s prospects, particularly the iPhone X. The iPhone X has been Apple’s top selling device every week since it came out and was the best selling phone model in China, Cook noted multiple times on the call, as he sought to combat the negative narrative some analysts were pushing.

“The iPhone X is a beloved product,” he said. “I think that it’s one of those things where a team wins the Super Bowl and maybe you want them to win by a few more points, but it’s a Super Bowl winner. I could not be prouder of the product.”

The debate over whether higher priced iPhones would sell started back in September. In addition to the new $1,000 model, Apple also priced its upgraded iPhone 8 at $699, $50 or 8%, more than the prior year’s model and 8 Plus at $799, a $30 or 4% price hike last year’s larger screen device. Since the new models went on sale, Apple has sold 129.5 million, just a 0.4% gain from the same six months a year earlier. But with the higher prices, revenue climbed 14% to $99.6 billion.

The real question is how long Apple can keep revenue growing at this pace. To grow a year from now, next year’s models would have to be even more expensive or the number sold would have to start increasing again in what many consider to be an already globally saturated smartphone market.

Cook battled furiously against that narrative, pointing out that about 500 million simple feature phones were sold last year. “Many of those were sold into emerging markets,” he said. “We still believe that over time every phone sold will be a smartphone. It seems to us with so many feature phones being sold, that’s still a big opportunity.”

To be sure, Apple is also growing in other areas, such as sales of services like Apple Music and wearables like AirPods and the Apple Watch. But those businesses remain a fraction of the iPhone’s size and probably can’t match its profit margins, either.

For now, Wall Street will have to keep debating.