美國經濟擴張后，數百萬人已重新上崗，經濟學家認為美國經濟現在處于或者接近充分就業水平。但這話到底什么意思？經濟學家所說的充分就業并不代表人人都有工作，而且即便經濟再健康再繁榮，失業率也不可能降至零。如果失業率降得太多，通脹就會回升，因為用人單位爭相招聘員工，導致薪資上漲太快。對經濟學家而言，充分就業意味著失業率要降到不會引起通脹上升的最低水平。在美國，充分就業狀態的失業率約為5%，高于美國官方公布的2月失業率：4.1%。通脹會因此走高嗎？或者說，充分就業狀態下失業率水平比經濟學家預計的要低？

現狀

本輪美國經濟復蘇始于2009年，截至2017年年末，全國就業人數由1.38億人增長到1.54億人。同期失業人數由1500萬人減少到不足700萬人。由于人才市場供應吃緊，美聯儲正在討論何時加息。問題在于，現在沒有以往明確多少美國人想找工作，因此難以判定抵御通脹率上升的失業率底線在哪。這是因為，上一次經濟衰退相當嚴重，對人才市場的影響尚未研究透徹。美國財政部史蒂夫·姆努欽認為，更全面的失業率應該囊括所謂“失意勞動者”，這群人認為人才市場已經沒有空缺崗位所以放棄找工作。也就是說，他認為應該采用美國勞工部人口調查局發布的替代性失業率指數U-5，通常放比常用的U-3失業率指數高整整一個百分點。

背景

美國政府對失業者的定義是，在統計數據之前四周內“主動找過”工作且隨時可以上崗的無業人士。如果要擴大統計范圍，就要把其他可能想找工作的人也算在內。人口調查局數據顯示，今年2月“準失業”的勞動者有160萬人，意味著有160萬美國人在統計數據之前12個月內找過工作，但統計前四周內沒有采取行動，其中就包括了37.3萬失意勞動者。近年來準失業勞動者增加，部分原因是經濟衰退影響持久且深遠，隨著經濟持續擴張，準失業勞動者人數可能會減少。短期內其他類型的假性失業人數可能也很高。今年2月，在美國2700萬兼職勞動者之中，希望找全職工作的有520萬人。由于經濟走強，過去不得已提前退休的人或者出于其他原因不再工作的人還可能重回勞動者大軍。

結論

包括美聯儲決策者在內，經濟學家對于美國接近充分就業的程度看法不一。有些經濟學家認為，為了抑制通脹，應該盡快再次調升短期利率，并且應該加快削減美聯儲的債券倉位。有些則認為，利率應該保持更低水平，主要原因是通脹還低于美聯儲的目標。一些經濟學家認為，官方失業率可以進一步下降，比如降到4%，然后再考慮解決通脹問題。另一些人認為，跟經濟衰退期后的失業率相比，薪資變化或許更能反映人才市場環境變化。從薪資數據來看，美國經濟有加快增長的跡象，但不夠明確。美聯儲最大的擔憂便是：通脹真正來臨前，我們可能沒法知道怎樣算充分就業。（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

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The U.S. expansion has put millions of people back to work and economists agree that the economy is now at or close to full employment. But what does that mean exactly? When economists talk about full employment, they don’t mean everybody has a job. And they don’t mean that even the rosiest economic health can cut unemployment to zero. If unemployment falls too much, inflation will rise as employers compete to hire workers and push up wages too fast. To economists, full employment means that unemployment has fallen to the lowest possible level that won’t cause inflation. In the U.S., that was thought to be a jobless rate of about 5 percent — above the February rate of 4.1 percent. Is higher inflation therefore on the way? Or is full employment a smaller number than economists supposed?

The Situation

Since the U.S. recovery began in 2009, total employment rose from 138 million to 154 million by the end of 2017. The number of unemployed has shrunk to fewer than 7 million from 15 million. As the labor market tightens, the Federal Reserve is debating the timing of its next rate hikes. The problem is that there’s more uncertainty than usual over how many people want jobs, making it hard to pinpoint how much unemployment has to be tolerated to fend off inflation. That’s because the last recession was exceptionally severe and has shaken up the labor market in ways that aren’t well understood. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin argues that a fuller unemployment measure should include “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking because they thought there were no openings. That rate, the BLS’s alternative U-5 index, tends to run a full percentage point higher than the commonly cited U-3 index.

The Background

The government counts as unemployed people who don’t have a job, have “actively looked” for one in the previous four weeks, and are available for work. A wider measure of people needing work would count other potential job-seekers as well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 1.6 million people were “marginally attached to the labor force” in February — meaning they wanted a job and had looked for one in the previous 12 months, but not in the past four weeks. This included 373,000 discouraged workers. The number of marginally attached surged in recent years partly because the recession was so deep and long; it’s likely to shrink as the expansion continues. Other kinds of disguised unemployment may be temporarily high as well. In February, 5.2 million of the economy’s 27 million part-time workers wanted a full-time job. A stronger economy might also draw back into the labor force people who retired sooner than they’d intended, or who chose to stop working for other reasons.

The Argument

Economists, including the Fed’s policy makers, are divided about how close the economy is to full employment. To discourage inflation, some think that short-term interest rates should rise again soon and that plans to reduce the central bank’s holdings of bonds should be sped up. Others think that rates should be held lower, not least because inflation is still below the Fed’s target. Some economists think that the official rate of unemployment can fall further — say, to 4 percent — before inflation concerns need to be addressed. Others say that changes in wages may be a clearer indicator of labor-market conditions than the post-crash unemployment rate. Wages are showing only hesitant signs of faster growth. The Fed’s big concern: It’s possible that we won’t know what full employment means until inflation takes off.