隨著比特幣價格的大幅飆升，生產比特幣的能源消耗也在迅速增長 — 目前，比特幣挖礦的用電量，遠遠超過了全球所有電動汽車的用電量。

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的最新報告預測，2018年，比特幣的電力需求預計將增長三倍，一年的用電量相當于阿根廷全國一年的電力需求。

該銀行的分析師預測，比特幣挖礦今年的耗電量可能超過125太瓦時，而全球電動汽車將到2025年才能達到這個水平。摩根士丹利在上周三發表的一項研究報告中估算，比特幣去年的耗電量為36太瓦時，相當于卡塔爾全國的年度耗電量。

相比之下，《財富》分析師發現，所有已經上路的特斯拉（Tesla）汽車（據特斯拉的統計數據顯示，至2017年底共有約280,000輛）在去年的耗電量可能不足1.3太瓦時。分析中根據報告至美國環境保護署（U.S. Environmental Protection Agency）的數據，按照特斯拉Model 3和Model S汽車的中位里程計算率，假設每輛汽車的行駛里程為15,000英里，接近美國的全國平均水平，每100英里的用電量為30千瓦時。

這意味著，去年生產比特幣的耗電量，是今天所有上路行駛的特斯拉汽車用電量的29倍。

有一位名為Frank99的網友在特斯拉的在線討論論壇上發布了類似的計算結果，他寫道：“這太瘋狂了。”

2016年，全球所有電動汽車的耗電量約為6太瓦時。

比特幣挖礦的耗電量如此之高，原因是生產每一枚新比特幣都需要借助大功率計算機執行加密過程，解決復雜的數學難題。挖礦計算用于在數字總分類賬區塊鏈中核實比特幣交易，確保安全；但它們的缺點就是能源消耗量非常大。（人們認為其他多數加密貨幣挖礦的耗電量遠少于比特幣。）

摩根士丹利估算，生產一枚比特幣的成本為3,000至7,000美元，包含能源和硬件成本。上周四下午，一枚比特幣的價格約為13,500美元，從上個月接近20,000美元的最高點大幅下滑。

摩根士丹利的分析師在研究報告中稱：“盡管如此，按照當下的比特幣價格，比特幣挖礦的收益依舊非常可觀，如果加密貨幣持續升值，我們預計全球挖礦耗電量還會增長。”

但分析師們尚未找到比特幣價格與電力成本之間的相互關系，這意味著加密貨幣投資者購買比特幣時，并沒有將其實際生產成本作為考慮因素。這也意味著雖然加密貨幣價格異常波動，甚至對挖礦公司的資訊非常敏感，但比特幣價格不太可能受到能源價格波動的影響。

摩根士丹利的分析師稱：“我們認為，近期內，加密貨幣價值不會受到電力成本驅動。2017年，加密貨幣的價格似乎并不是完全基于基本面。”

不過，銀行家們為電力公司們提供了一條建議，利用加密貨幣來推高自己的股價。分析師們總結道：“或許全球的公用事業公司應該開始接受比特幣支付。”（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

As Bitcoin’s price has soared, so too has the energy consumption to produce it—to the point that Bitcoin mining now guzzles more electricity than all the electric cars in the world.

In 2018, Bitcoin’s power demand is set to more than triple, consuming as much energy in a year as the entire nation of Argentina, according to a new report by Morgan Stanley(MS, +0.50%).

The bank’s analysts forecast that Bitcoin mining could use up more than 125 terawatt hours of electricity this year, a level electric vehicles globally won’t reach until 2025. Last year, Bitcoin consumed 36 terawatt hours of energy—as much as the country of Qatar, Morgan Stanley estimated in a research note published last Wednesday.

By comparison, all the Tesla (TSLA, +0.96%) cars on the road (about 280,000 at the end of 2017, according to company statistics) likely used less than 1.3 terawatt hours of electricity combined for the year, a Fortune analysis found. The analysis assumed each car drove 15,000 miles—roughly the national average—at a rate of 30 kilowatt hours of electricity per 100 miles, based on the median mileage rate for Tesla Model 3 and Model S vehicles, according to figures reported to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

That means it cost 29 times as much energy to produce Bitcoins last year as it did to power all the Tesla cars driving today.

“That’s freaking insane,” wrote one person, going by the username Frank99, who posted a similar calculation on Tesla’s online discussion forum.

Global energy consumption for all electric cars was about 6 terawatt hours in 2016.

The reason Bitcoin mining consumes so much electricity is that producing each new Bitcoin requires solving a complex mathematical puzzle, through a cryptographic process performed by high-powered computers. The mining computations serve to verify Bitcoin transactions on a digital ledger known as the blockchain, ensuring security; they also have the downside of being extremely energy intensive. (Most other cryptocurrencies are believed to require much less energy to mine.)

Morgan Stanley estimates that it costs $3,000 to $7,000 to produce one Bitcoin, including both energy and hardware expenses. The price of a single Bitcoin was about $13,500 last Thursday afternoon, down from a high of nearly $20,000 last month.

“That said, mining is very profitable at today’s bitcoin price, and if cryptocurrencies continue to appreciate we expect global mining power consumption to increase,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in their research note.

Still, the analysts did not find any correlation between the Bitcoin price and electricity costs—suggesting that cryptocurrency investors who buy Bitcoin are not factoring in how much it actually takes to produce it. This also means that while cryptocurrency prices are unusually volatile and sensitive to even minor news events, Bitcoin’s price is unlikely to be vulnerable to energy price fluctuations.

“We do not see cryptocurrency values being driven by electricity costs in the near term,” the Morgan Stanley analysts continued. “2017 shows that cryptocurrency pricing appears not to be fully based on fundamentals.”

The bankers, however, did offer an idea for how energy companies could use cryptocurrency to juice their own stock prices: “Perhaps global utilities should start accepting Bitcoins for payments,” the analysts concluded.