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特斯拉為何未能按時實現(xiàn)Model 3產量目標

特斯拉為何未能按時實現(xiàn)Model 3產量目標

KIRSTEN KOROSEC 2018年01月08日
有證據(jù)表明,特斯拉最近的增長并非如此緩慢,或者某些瓶頸已經被消除。

特斯拉最經濟實惠車型Model 3的首批汽車于2017年7月28日在特斯拉的美國菲蒙市工廠交付。特斯拉計劃經過一段時間的努力讓Model 3完全實現(xiàn)自動化。圖片來源:安德烈·索科洛夫

特斯拉在第四季度生產了2425輛Model 3電動汽車,交付了1550輛。由于埃隆·馬斯克試圖解決生產瓶頸問題,第四季度的量產未能達到華爾街的預期,同時特斯拉再次推遲了此前制定的量產目標。

不同機構對Model 3交付的預測差異很大。奧本海默(Oppenheimer)的分析師柯林·魯奇預計特斯拉僅能交付800輛,但樂通公司(Cowen & Co.)的杰弗里·奧斯本預計有2250輛,永核(Evercore)的分析師甚至預計交付高達5800輛。根據(jù)彭博新聞社(Bloomberg News)的調查數(shù)據(jù),分析師預計Model 3的平均交付量為2900輛。

特斯拉之前宣稱其已經突破Model 3的生產瓶頸,取得“重大進展”。而現(xiàn)在特斯拉不得不將Model 3達到每周5000輛的生產量目標推遲到第二季度末。每周生產量達到5000輛對于特斯拉是一個重大目標,然而這已經是特斯拉第二次推遲這一目標的實現(xiàn)了。在交易后時段,特斯拉的股票下跌了1.65%。

特斯拉認為,在2018年第一季度,其將有一個更穩(wěn)定的增長,“專注于質量和效率,而非僅僅在最短的時間內盡可能地提高產量。”特斯拉在第一季度末Model 3每周的生產量將達到2500輛。特斯拉在發(fā)布的報告中稱,“我們打算在第二季度結束前實現(xiàn)每周5000輛的目標。”

有證據(jù)表明,最近的增長并非如此緩慢,或者某些瓶頸已經被消除,導致產量突然增加。根據(jù)特斯拉的數(shù)據(jù),在第四季度生產的2425輛Model 3中,有793輛(接近33%)是在這一季度的最后7個工作日生產的。

“由于產量大幅增長,自12月9日以來,我們生產了很多Model 3,與我們過去四個多月生產的一樣多,”特斯拉這樣表示,同時解釋這也是其之所以未能在第四季度結束前的圣誕季交付大量Model 3汽車的原因。

特斯拉表示,它在第四季度減少了Model S和Model X的生產,以使更多的工人加入Model 3的量產中。

汽車貿易(Autotrader)的執(zhí)行分析師米歇爾·克雷布斯在一封電子郵件中表示:“如果沒有宣布如此宏偉的生產計劃,特斯拉將會提供更好的服務。該公司已經表示,專注于質量和效率,這是正確的做法。在質量上,Model3必須是完美的,生產有缺陷的產品來提高生產水平是愚蠢之舉。”

特斯拉2017年Q4生產量:

?? 總產量:24565輛

?? Model S 和X (特斯拉把這兩款車型的生產量放在一起):22140

?? Model 3:2425

盡管特斯拉在Model 3的生產上屢遭“不順”,但它還是成功比上個季度交付了更多Model X、Model S和Model 3車型。這也使得特斯拉超額完成了2017年10萬輛車的銷售目標。特斯拉稱,其在2017年交付了101312輛Model S和Model X,比2016年增加了33%。

特斯拉2017年第四季度交付了29870輛汽車,比2016年同季度增長了27%,比2017年第三季度增長了9%。

特斯拉2017年Q4交付量:

?? 總交付量:29870輛

?? Model S:15200

?? Model X:13120

?? Model 3:1550

特斯拉表示,在2017年第四季度末,另有2520輛Model S和X型車以及860輛Model 3型車正處于交付階段。這些車會一并計入2018年第一季度的交付量中。(財富中文網)

譯者:陳亞芬/汪皓

Tesla produced 2,425 of its new Model 3 electric cars in the fourth quarter and delivered 1,550, missing Wall Street expectations as the company led by Elon Musk tries to solve production bottlenecks that have forced the company to dial back its own mass manufacturing goals.

Estimates for Model 3 deliveries varied wildly, coming in as low as 800 from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer all the way up to 2,250 from Jeffrey Osborne of Cowen & Co., and about 5,800 from analysts at Evercore. Analysts’ average estimate for the model 3 deliveries was about 2,900 units, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Despite making “major progress” addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, the company has pushed back its target of producing 5,000 Model 3 sedans per week to the end of the second quarter. This is the second time Tesla has punted on its 5,000-per-week milestone.

Shares were down 1.65% in after-hours trading.

Tesla said it will have a more gradual ramp through the first quarter “to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time.” The company will likely end the first quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. “We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2,” Tesla said in its report.

There is some evidence that the ramp up lately has not been so gradual, or that perhaps some bottlenecks have been removed, causing a sudden increase in production. Of the 2,425 Model 3 vehicles produced in the fourth quarter, 793 of them (or nearly 33%) were made in the last seven working days of the quarter, according to Tesla.

“As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3’s since Dec. 9 as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point,” Tesla said, explaining that this is why it wasn’t able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended.

Tesla said it reduced production of its Model S and Model X in the fourth quarter to put more of its workers on the Model 3.

“Tesla would have been better served had it not announced such lofty plans for its production ramp-up,” Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Autotrader said in an email. “The company has now said it is focused on quality versus volume, which is the right focus. The Model 3 must be right in terms of quality. Ramping up production levels with a flawed product is foolish.”

Here’s a quick production breakdown for Q4:

?? Total: 24,565 vehicles

?? Model S and X (the company didn’t break these out): 22,140

?? Model 3: 2,425

?? Model 3:2425

Despite continued headwinds with the Model 3, Tesla did manage to deliver more of its Model X, Model S, and Model 3 vehicles than in previous quarters. It also surpassed its 100,000-vehicle goal for 2017. Tesla reported it delivered 101,312 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, a 33% increase over 2016.

Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 27% increase over the same quarter in 2016 and 9% more than the third quarter.

Here’s a quick delivery breakdown for Q4:

?? Total: 29,870 vehicles

?? Model S:15,200

?? Model S:15200

?? Model X: 13,120

?? Model X:13120

?? Model 3: 1,550

?? Model 3:1550

The company said another 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018, Tesla said.

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