為了生存，零售商在2018年要做什么？
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零售商們借助經濟的走強，以及對亞馬遜（Amazon.com）時代的努力適應，似乎已經開始擺脫多年來的萎靡。 塔吉特（Target）和科爾士百貨（Kohl’s）等公司在電子商務領域投資了數十億美元，用于改造門店來支持網絡訂單等。如今，它們終于開始獲取回報。沃爾瑪（Walmart）的策略也從防御轉向進攻，在技術領域大規模投資，提高了數十萬家門店的員工收入，還對食品雜貨的陳列方式進行了大幅改進。甚至連Gap Inc、American Eagle Outfitters和Abercrombie & Fitch 等服裝連鎖店也有了更好的業績。 不過隨著2017年零售業的大洗牌結束，幸存者們需要向消費者和華爾街表明，在存活下來并從一個又一個零售業危機中反彈以外，他們可以做到更多。他們已經有了幾年時間來適應和應對亞馬遜的威脅，弄清自己的定位。任何在2018年表現不佳的零售商，都只能歸咎于自己的高管，再沒有其他借口了。 梅西（Macy’s）等百貨公司多年來都在討論變革和新舉措，明年是時候行動起來了，否則，你懂的。沃爾瑪如今勢頭正盛，有人甚至認為他們勉強可以和亞馬遜掰掰手腕，不過他們也要證明自己能在網絡消費者的心目中占有類似的分量。Gap和Abercrombie等公司花費了數年時間來加速生產、調整運營，以便靈活地應對潮流趨勢。而Tapestry’s旗下品牌蔻馳（Coach）、邁克·柯爾（Michael Kors）和蒂芙尼（Tiffany & Co）等奢侈品牌也大刀闊斧改進產品。所以，如今是時候看看回報了。 以下是我們將在2018年關注的一些零售商。 1）沃爾瑪下一個要購買或入主的會是哪家公司？ 沃爾瑪在2017年收購了Bonobos、Modcloth和Moosejaw，由于公司試圖阻擊亞馬遜在時尚界的進軍，吸引更多購物者來到他們收購的Jet.com或自家門店，他們可能會繼續收購重視數字化的時尚品牌。這家平價超市也將為加拿大零售集團HBC旗下表現掙扎的Lord & Taylor開設網店，此舉可能也會應用于其他品牌，因為沃爾瑪試圖像其他許多亞洲的競爭對手那樣，成為一家網上商城。 ? |
Retailers seem to be pulling out of their years-long malaise, helped by a strong economy and their own efforts to finally adapt to the Amazon.com (AMZN, +0.48%)world. Companies like Target (TGT, -1.05%)and Kohl’s (KSS, -2.78%) are finally starting to reap the dividends of billions in investments in e-commerce, such as retrofitting stores so they support online orders. Walmart has gone from defensive mode to offense, with big investments in tech to go with the raises its given to hundreds of thousands of store employees and major improvements to how its grocery offerings are presented. Even apparel chains like Gap Inc (GPS, -1.35%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, -1.21%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, -4.20%) are doing better. But with the major shakeout in retail of 2017 out of the way, survivors will have to show customers and Wall Street that they can do more than just survive and bounce from one retail crisis to another. They’ve had several years now to adapt and react to Amazon’s threat and figure out what they stand for. Any retailer that has a poor 2018 has no one to blame but its own executives. Department stores like Macy’s (M, -4.51%) have been talking changes and new initiatives for years, so next year is the time to put up or well, you know. Walmart is flying high now, even seen as an underdog to Amazon, but has to show that it can truly be a counterweight to its rival in online shoppers’ consideration set. The likes of Gap and Abercrombie have had several years to speed up their production process and shake up operations to be more flexible in reacting to fashion trends. And luxury players like Tapestry’s (TPR, -0.69%)Coach brand, Michael Kors, and Tiffany & Co (TIF, +0.06%) have made major moves to refine their offerings. So now is the time to see the payoff. Here are some of the retail stories we will be watching in 2018.?? 1) Who Will Walmart.com Buy or Host Next? Walmart, coming off a year of acquisitions like those of Bonobos, Modcloth and Moosejaw, will likely continue to buy hip digital-first brands as it looks to counter Amazon’s moves in the fashion world and attract more well-heller shoppers to Jet.com if not its own site. The discounter will also begin hosting an online store for HBC’s struggling Lord & Taylor chain, a move that likely presages lining up other brands as Walmart tries to become an online mall as many of its Asian rivals have. ? |
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據傳聞，由于投資者不太愿意以諾德斯特龍（Nordstrom Inc.）創始者希望的價格將其退市，該公司在受傷之下，暫停了私有化的進程。不過該計劃可能在2018年重啟，誰能責怪他們呢——由于投資者對百貨超市的前景不太看好，盡管這家高端零售商的業績有所提高，但是股價卻萎靡不振。類似的，如果Dillard’s、HBC和Barnes & Noble等零售商開始考慮私有化的可能性，你也不用感到驚訝。 事實上，華爾街的許多投資者認為，零售商的房地產和銷量產生的現金才是價值所在，而基礎的零售業務對股價幾乎沒有任何貢獻。不過與投資者不指望獲取大量利潤的亞馬遜不同，許多傳統零售商沒有獲得華爾街的允許去承擔很大風險，或進行大幅調整來進行現代化。退市可以讓他們有更大的空間放手去做。 3）折扣店會在2018年會舉步維艱嗎？ T.J. Maxx和Marshalls的母公司TJX 11月的財報顯示，他們的季度可比銷售額首次出現下滑。許多觀察者都懷疑這家折扣店巨頭在積極擴張門店多年之后要回歸正常。一個疲軟的季度，現在還不足以證明趨勢變了。不過看看諾德斯特龍的Rack連鎖店和HBC的Saks Off Fifth連鎖店，他們也都表現掙扎。Neiman Marcus’也決定把Last Call直銷店的數量關閉近一半。這很容易讓你開始懷疑，折扣和直銷的概念是否已經在過去幾年的瘋狂開店之后耗盡了發展空間。 對于該領域而言，新年是一個證明他們可以適應各種激烈競爭的機會。其中一些競爭來自梅西百貨的Backstage折扣店概念，以及百貨商場和品牌更好的規劃。另外，還有一些品牌也開始對折扣店日益厭惡。確實，拉爾夫·勞倫（Ralph Lauren）和邁克·柯爾等品牌已經明確表示他們希望撤出折扣店，那里無法產生持續的銷量，卻影響了品牌的光環。 4）破產和關店的情況會更多出現 零售業的財富增加無法惠及所有公司，許多債臺高筑的連鎖店仍然在遭遇銷售額的跳水。盡管2017年類似的清洗不太可能出現，但放血現象還將繼續。正如CNBC在本月早些時候報道的，Moody’s所謂的觀察列表，即那些擁有違約風險的零售商，已經從2017年夏天的22家增加到了27家，而惠譽評級公司（Fitch Ratings）也預測違約數會在2018年上升。 |
Nordstrom (JWN, -1.09%) has hit the pause button on its go-private initiative, reportedly hurt by tepid interest by investors to take it off the stock market at the price the founding family wants. But the Nordstroms will likely be back in 2018 and who can blame them—the high end retailer’s stock has been brought down by worries about the department store sector’s woes, despite its own better results. Similarly, don’t be surprised if retailers like Dillard’s, HBC and Barnes & Noble at least explore going private. The truth is that many on Wall Street only see value in retailers’ real estate and the cash their sales generate, with the basic retail business contributing almost nothing to their shares. So unlike Amazon, which investors don’t expect to make mounds of profit, many traditional retailers don’t get the latitude from Wall Street to take big risks and make the major moves that would modernize them. Being private could give them more latitude to do so. 3) Will Off-Price Stumble in 2018? When T.J. Maxx and Marshalls parent TJX (TAX, -1.34%) reported the chains’ first quarterly comparable sales drop in memory in November, many observers wondered whether the off-price juggernaut was running its course after years of aggressive store expansion. Now one soft quarter does not a new trend make. But when you look at how Nordstrom’s Rack chain and HBC’s Saks Off Fifth stores are also struggling, as well as Neiman Marcus’ decision to close almost half of its Last Call outlet stores, it’s easy to wonder whether the off-price/outlet concept has reached its peak after an incredible number of store openings in the last few years. The new year will be a chance for the sector to show that it can adapt to all the intense competition, some of it coming from concepts like Macy’s Backstage, along with better planning by department stores and brands and growing aversion from some brands. Indeed, some names such as Ralph Lauren and Michael Kors have said clearly they want to dial back their presence in off-price retail, an avenue that does generate consistent sales but also hurts a brand’s aura. 4) More bankruptcies and store closings are likely Retail’s improving fortunes won’t lift all boats and many debt-laden chains are still seeing sharp sales declines. So while a purge akin to 2017’s unlikely, the bloodletting will continue. As CNBC reported earlier this month, Moody’s so-called watch list, where it is tracking retailers at risk of defaulting, has risen to 27 companies from 22 companies this summer, while Fitch Ratings expects defaults to rise next year. |
5）梅西百貨最終會扭虧為盈嗎？
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梅西百貨的新任首席執行官杰夫·甘尼特花費了三十年時間來到現在的位置，而他上任后的頭九個月相當繁忙。他重新調整了梅西百貨的忠誠度計劃，遏制了梅西臭名昭著的官僚主義希望讓公司更加靈敏，從eBay招來了一批新的電子商務專家，著手開始改善門店的雜亂擺放，并努力擺脫梅西的折扣店形象。不過，除非這家百貨店能夠結束連續11個月可比銷售額下滑的態勢，否則投資者不可能被他打動。即便到了那時，他仍然還有許多工作要做，《財富》上個月在一篇重頭文章中對此有過詳細闡述。梅西百貨在垂死掙扎的商場里設置了太多門店，對許多品牌而言，梅西的地位也越來越不重要，因為這些品牌正努力直接接觸消費者。 |
Macy’s new CEO Jeff Gennette has spent a busy first nine months on the job he spent three decades building up to. He has rejigged Macy’s loyalty program, slashed through Macy’s notorious bureaucracy in the hopes of making it more nimble, hired some new top e-commerce away from eBay and begun to improve the clutter in his stores and chip away at Macy’s discount-driven aura. But investors will only be swayed once the department store ends its 11 quarter-streak of comparable sales declines. And even then much work would remain to be done, as Fortune detailed in a major article last month. Macy’s has too many stores in dying malls and is less and less crucial to brands, many of which are ramping up their direct-to-consumer efforts. |
6）涉及亞馬遜和沃爾瑪的奇怪合作，未來還會出現多少？
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零售商面臨的挑戰，導致了2017年一些違反直覺的交易：科爾士開始在一些門店處理亞馬遜的退貨；西爾斯百貨（Sears）開始在亞馬遜銷售家用電器；沃爾瑪開始納入Lord & Taylor；沃爾瑪收購了Bonobos。由于行業出現了根本性的變化，零售商試圖改變思路，2018年這種情況可能還會更多。大型連鎖店預計還會更多地并購電子商務公司和物流供應商（例如塔吉特最近就以5.5億美元收購了Shipt），因為他們試圖在物流、店內展示和訂單處理上超越競爭對手。 7）服裝業會復蘇嗎？ 2018年底，會有一些復蘇的苗頭，有跡象表明服裝的銷售額在The Gap和Abercrombie等連鎖店已經開始穩定。他們有義務展現出自己近來的改善并非巧合。此外，亞馬遜也在生產自己的服裝品牌，塔吉特的自家品牌Cat & Jack和新的Goodfellow & Co男士服裝品牌也都取得了成功。梅西、科爾士和J.C. Penney還在繼續開發自有品牌。考慮到這些，我們可以預測，服裝依舊是零售業競爭最激烈的領域之一。 |
Retail’s existential crisis made for some counterintuitive deals in 2017: Kohl’s handling Amazon returns at some stores; Sears selling appliances on Amazon; Walmart hosting Lord & Taylor on its site; Walmart buying Bonobos. Expect more of that in 2018 as retailers look to change their thinking given the fundamental change shaking the industry up. And look for more acquisitions of e-commerce companies and logistics suppliers (like Target’s recent purchase of Shipt for $550 million) by the large chains as they look to outdo each other on delivery, in-store presentation and order pick up. 7) Will apparel make a comeback? There were some green shoots at the end of 2018, with signs showing apparel sales stabilizing at chains like The Gap and Abercrombie. The onus will be on them to show the improvements of late where no fluke, all the more given the inroads Amazon is making in its own private label clothing brands, and the out-of-the-box success of Target’s (TGT, -1.05%) house brands like Cat & Jack and its new Goodfellow & Co menswear line. And Macy’s, Kohl’s and J.C. Penney continue to work on their house brands, so expect apparel to remain one of retail’s most difficult areas. |
8）安德瑪（Under Armour）和耐克會回到正軌嗎？
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這兩家運動服裝品牌近來都在北美受挫，2018年重要的話題之一，就在于他們能否抑制阿迪達斯（Adidas），處理好鞋類銷售疲軟與運動服裝供過于求的這兩大沖擊市場的問題，重新回到正軌。（財富中文網） 譯者：嚴匡正? |
Both sportswear brands have languished of late in North America, and one of the big stories next year will be whether they can get back on track by pushing back at Adidas and contend with softness in footwear sales in the industry and the glut of athletic wear that has hit the market. |
