湯森路透/歐洲工商管理學院的一項調查顯示，得益于活躍的消費和全球貿易，10-12月份亞洲企業信心升至近七年來的最高點。

湯森路透/歐洲工商管理學院亞洲企業信心指數代表著94家公司對今后六個月的展望。今年第四季度，該指數從第三季度的69升至78，而該指數的歷史最高紀錄出現在2011年第一季度。

讀數高于50表明公司對今后前景持積極看法。

澳大利亞、中國和韓國企業信心增強推動整個指數上升。印尼和泰國的企業信心也很強，這表明許多亞洲國家都繼續受益于不斷加快的全球經濟增長。

歐洲工商管理學院駐新加坡經濟學教授安東尼奧·法塔斯說：“該指數表明全球經濟的緩慢增長提高了亞洲企業的信心。”

他指出：“亞洲反映出了全球目前的情況。”

第四季度，澳大利亞企業信心指數從前一季度的69升至92的歷史最高點。澳大利亞執政聯盟已經擺脫了此前有可能讓政壇陷入動蕩的雙重國籍危機。

消費支出的反彈跡象、中國對澳大利亞金屬的需求以及其他行業資本支出的增長對企業信心也有提振作用。

作為亞洲諸多國家和地區的貿易依賴對象，中國的企業信心指數上升到了83，創去年第三季度以來的新高。

中國國家主席習近平今年10月在十九大上提出的市場改革讓人們樂觀地認為，中國這個世界第二大經濟體可以控制房價和信貸的迅猛增長。

韓國企業信心指數從上季度的50升至83，這是2011年第二季度以來的最高點，原因是迄今為止的國際壓力延緩了朝鮮試射核導彈的步伐。

印尼企業信心指數從第三季度的100降至92，但仍處于高點。泰國和印度的企業信心雙雙改善，臺灣企業信心則跌至一年多以來的最低點。

資產價格和政治

國際貨幣基金組織和經合組織已經上調了今年全球經濟增長預期，原因是許多主要經濟體在貿易、消費開支和投資方面表現強勁。

但這樣的前景并非沒有風險。本次調查于12月1-15日進行，反饋表明企業最擔心的是資產價格突然回落。

美國股市今年連創新高，其他大多數國家和地區的股市也在經濟加速增長的預期推動下強勁上揚。

一些分析師已經指出，他們的顧慮是股價可能過高。本次調查中，來自交通運輸、醫療保健、能源和金融行業的公司也表示對資產價格回落感到擔心。

本次調查表明，頻繁出現并購的領域，比如科技、金屬、自然資源和醫療保健行業都認為跨境并購受到更嚴格的監管審查是個風險因素。

許多公司對保護主義感到擔心，因為它不僅會影響出口，還將成為海外收購的障礙。

受訪公司中，九家企業表示他們最擔心政局不穩和地緣政治風險，原因是某些地區的局勢可能影響到其他地區，比如英國的脫歐談判。

泰國酒店餐飲業龍頭Minor International PCL投資者關系高級經理Supitcha Fooanant表示：“英國脫歐的影響已經波及英國人的出境旅游需求。”

“我們發現在自家酒店入住的英國游客變少了。幸運的是，我們的多元化策略很成功，它讓我們保持著韌性，并不斷取得出色的業績。”

表現較差的國家和地區中，臺灣企業信心指數從上季度的75降至50，但較小的樣本規模可能夸大了指數跌幅。

馬來西亞企業信心指數從75降至64，原因是受訪者對消費信心有所顧慮。菲律賓企業信心指數從此前的83降至70，日本企業信心指數從75降至70。在新加坡，該指數從79下滑到了64。（財富中文網）

注：每個季度調查的公司可能不同。

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

Business confidence among Asian companies rose in October-December to the highest in almost seven years due to robust consumption and global trade, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD (TRI, +0.21%) survey showed.

The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index, representing the six-month outlook of 94 firms, rose to 78 for the December quarter from 69 three months before. The index reached its highest since January-March 2011.

A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

Improvement in sentiment in Australia, China and South Korea drove gains in the overall index. Sentiment in Indonesia and Thailand was also strong, showing that many countries in Asia continue to benefit from accelerating global growth.

“The index shows that the slow strengthening that we have seen in the world economy has lifted business sentiment in Asia,” said Antonio Fatas, a Singapore-based economics professor at global business school INSEAD.

“Asia is a reflection of what is happening in the world,” he said.

The index measuring sentiment in Australia rose to a record high of 92 in October-December from 69 in the previous quarter. The country’s ruling coalition has recovered from a dual-citizenship crisis that threatened to throw policy-making into turmoil.

Signs of a rebound in consumer spending, Chinese demand for Australian metals, and growing capital expenditure in other sectors has also underpinned sentiment.

China, upon which much of Asia depends for trade, saw its subindex rise to 83 to reach the highest since the third quarter of last year.

The market reforms that Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out at the Communist Party Congress in October has fueled optimism that the world’s second-largest economy can manage a surge in house prices and credit growth.

South Korea’s subindex rose to 83 from 50 in the previous quarter to reach the highest since the second quarter of 2011, as international pressure has so far slowed the pace of North Korea’s missile tests for its nuclear weapons program.

The subindex for Indonesia slipped to 92 in the fourth quarter from 100 in the previous quarter but remained at a high level. Sentiment in Thailand and India improved, while sentiment in Taiwan fell to the lowest level in more than a year.

Asset Prices And Politics

The International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have raised their global growth forecasts for this year due to strong trade, consumer spending, and investment in many major economies.

However, the outlook is not without risk. Respondents to the survey, which was conducted Dec. 1-15, showed companies’ biggest concern was a sudden correction in asset prices.

U.S. stocks have repeatedly set record highs this year and stock markets in most other countries have rallied strongly due to expectations for faster growth.

Some analysts have expressed concerns that stock prices may be overheating. Companies from the transportation, healthcare, energy and finance sectors also expressed concern about a correction in asset prices, the Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey showed.

Industries subject to frequent mergers and acquisitions, such as technology, metals, natural resources and healthcare, identified increased regulatory scrutiny of cross-border transactions as a risk, the survey showed.

Many companies have concerns about protectionism, which can hurt not only exports but also become a barrier to making acquisitions overseas.

Of companies surveyed, nine respondents identified political instability and geopolitical risks as their biggest concerns, because events on one side of the globe, such as Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union, can have consequences elsewhere.

“The impact of ‘Brexit’ affected British demand for tourism aboard,” said Supitcha Fooanant, senior investor relations manager at Minor International PCL, Thailand’s leading hotel and restaurant operator.

“We saw a decline in British tourists in our hotel portfolio. Fortunately, our successful diversification strategy enables us to maintain resiliency and consistently achieve robust results.”

On the downside, the sub-index for Taiwan fell to 50 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter, but the decline may have been exaggerated by a smaller sample size.

The index for Malaysia weakened to 64 from 75 as respondents expressed concern about consumer sentiment. Business sentiment for the Philippines fell to 70 from 83 previously, while in Japan sentiment eased to 70 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter. In Singapore, the sentiment subindex rose to 79 from 64.

Note: Companies surveyed can change from quarter to quarter.