周二發布的一份最新報告稱，未來幾年內，美國石油天然氣產量將獲得全球最高增幅。

巴黎智庫國際能源署（International Energy Agency）的報告，對于美國頁巖行業在沙特阿拉伯等國近兩年的壓制下的回彈能力，給出了巨大的認可。這在美國政府的預測中已經顯而易見。美國預測國內原油產量將從今年的平均920萬桶/年，到2018年增長到990萬桶/天，打破1970年創下的史上最高記錄。

國際能源署表示，隨著頁巖油生產商找到更多產油方法，即使在更低油價的情況下依舊可實現盈利，從現在到2025年，美國將在全球石油供應增幅中占到80%。到2020年代后期，美國將自上世紀50年代以來首次成為凈石油出口國。

天然氣行業也將迎來相同的趨勢，而且速度更快。國際能源署預測，隨著中國、印度和東南亞從煤炭轉向清潔能源，對液化天然氣的需求將大幅增長，到2020年代中期，美國將成為全球最大的液化天然氣出口國。

另外一個有利因素是，隨著電動汽車的普及和內燃機汽車燃油效率的改善，到2040年，美國的石油需求將下降超過400萬桶/天。

The U.S. is set to enjoy the biggest increase in oil and gas production the world has ever seen over the next few years, according to a new report out Tuesday.

The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based think tank, is a thumping endorsement for the shale sector’s resilience in the face of a two-year attempt by Saudi Arabia and others to squeeze it. That’s already visible in U.S. government forecasts, which say U.S. crude oil production will rise from an average of 9.2 million barrels a day this year to 9.9 million barrels a day in 2018, a new all-time high beating a record set in 1970.

The IEA said the U.S. will account for 80% of the increase in global oil supply between now and 2025, as shale producers find ever more ways to pump oil profitably even at lower prices. By the late 2020s, the U.S. will become a net exporter of oil for the first time since the 1950s.

In natural gas the trend is the same, only faster. By the mid 2020s, the IEA expects the U.S. to become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, demand for which is set to rise strongly as China, India, and Southeast Asia all turn away from coal to cleaner energy sources.

Also helping the equation is the projection that oil demand in the U.S. is set to fall by over 4 million barrels a day by 2040, due to the spread of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency in those vehicles that still use combustion engines.

國際能源署署長法提赫·比羅爾在倫敦召開的新聞發布會上表示：“未來幾十年內，美國將成為無可爭議的全球石油天然氣行業領袖。”他認為沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在戰后時期的產量增長，在美國未來絕對產量的增長面前，也將相形見絀。2005年至2030年期間，美國總石油產量將翻一番，從不足每天1,500萬桶石油當量增加到超過3,100萬桶。

這種轉變將賦予美國更大的外交影響力，減少美國對中東石油的依賴，使美國可以滿足個別發展中國家最緊迫的需求。

比羅爾表示：“未來美國國務卿的位置，將比[今天的]能源出口國的國務卿更輕松。”

國際能源署的預測與特朗普政府所追求的所謂“能源主導”地位大部分是重疊的 — 特朗普政府的這一策略，從其今年推翻奧巴馬時代的各種政策（尤其是美國退出《巴黎氣候協定》）和大幅增加用于石油天然氣勘探的聯邦土地資產供應中可以顯而易見。

但即便這種“主導”地位也無法使美國完全擺脫對于潛在不可靠的外國能源的依賴。美國大部分煉油廠被設計用于加工外國混合原油，其中大部分是含硫量更高的重質油，而頁巖油公司開采的多數“致密油”和從墨西哥灣與阿拉斯加開采的石油多數為低硫輕質油。國際能源署表示，這意味著，美國將繼續從委內瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等地進口石油，同時美國原油的出口量會大幅增加。

但這并不意味著中東將失去其在全球能源市場中的關鍵地位。

比羅爾表示：“雖然美國將成為全球最大的產油國，但中東依舊是最重要的出口區域，尤其是對于亞洲而言。”他指出，未來，即使中國、印度和東南亞地區的可再生能源將迎來繁榮，但這些國家對于石油天然氣的需求會繼續大幅增長。

國際能源署稱：“在能源領域保持獨立固然重要，但實際上，在深度互聯的能源領域，沒有任何一個國家是孤島。”

國際能源署在報告中表示，美國未來的主導地位將是全球能源市場的四個重要趨勢之一。其他趨勢分別是可再生能源的爆炸式增長，尤其是光伏太陽能；中國對清潔能源的日益重視；以及全球電力需求的長期大幅增長，反映出新興市場生活水平的提高，尤其是空調需求的增加。國際能源署稱，制冷需求帶來的全球電力需求增幅，將高于電動汽車的普及。（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

“The U.S. will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said at a press conference in London. He said that the increase in absolute terms will dwarf even the ramp-ups delivered by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the post-war period. Between 2005 and 2030, total U.S. oil output will double from less than 15 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to over 31 million.

The transformation is set to give U.S. diplomacy considerably more clout, lessening the dependence on Middle Eastern oil and making the U.S. the answer to some developing nations’ most pressing needs.

“The U.S. Secretary of State will be sitting more comfortably in his seat than the the Secretary of State of [today’s] energy exporting countries,” Birol said.

The IEA’s forecasts overlap largely with the Trump administration’s pursuit of what it calls “energy dominance”—a strategy that has been visible in its rollback of various Obama-era policies this year (above all in the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord), and in a big expansion of federal acreage offered for oil and gas prospecting.

But even such “dominance” won’t completely free the U.S. of dependence on potentially unreliable sources of foreign energy. U.S. refineries are mostly engineered to process foreign crude blends which are heavier and have a higher sulfur content, whereas most of the “tight oil” being exploited by shale companies and oil extracted from the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska is lighter and “sweeter.” That means that the U.S. will continue to import from places such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, while U.S. crude will be exported in ever-greater volumes, the IEA said.

Nor does it mean that the Middle East will lose its key role in the world’s energy markets.

“Although the U.S. will become the biggest producer, the Middle East will still be the most important exporting region, especially for Asia,” Birol said, pointing out that China, India, and Southeast Asia will still demand big incremental amounts of oil and gas in future, even allowing for the boom in renewables in those countries.

“The notion of independence in energy is important, but in practice, no country is an island in a deeply interconnected energy world,” the IEA said.

Emerging U.S. dominance was one of four mega-trends in world energy markets highlighted by the IEA in its review. The others were the explosive growth of renewable energy sources, especially solar photo-voltaic energy; China’s increasing prioritization of cleaner energy; and the huge long-term rise in global electricity demand, reflecting higher living standards in the emerging world—notably in the shape of demand for air conditioning. The IEA said demand for cooling will add more to global electricity demand than the spread of electric vehicles.