上周，理查德·塞勒因?yàn)樵谌祟愃狈Φ睦硇詻Q策方面的貢獻(xiàn)，獲得了2017年的諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)。當(dāng)被問(wèn)到準(zhǔn)備如何使用110萬(wàn)美元的獎(jiǎng)金時(shí)，他給出了一個(gè)完美的回答：“我要盡可能非理性地花掉它。”

這句話從一個(gè)72歲的學(xué)者口中說(shuō)出，十分有趣。不過(guò)它也讓我想起了美國(guó)汽車(chē)廠商在應(yīng)對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的未來(lái)時(shí)不那么有趣而且很不理性的行為。

一方面，幾乎每周都有汽車(chē)廠商宣布在三大環(huán)保交通選擇：電動(dòng)、無(wú)人駕駛和共享汽車(chē)上進(jìn)行投資。沃爾沃（Volvo）和捷豹（Jaguar）等品牌宣布他們?cè)诓痪玫膶?lái)將實(shí)現(xiàn)全部車(chē)型“電動(dòng)化”。而大眾（Volkswagen）、梅賽德斯（Mercedes）、寶馬（BMW）和通用汽車(chē)（GM）等另一些廠商則似乎開(kāi)始了創(chuàng)新競(jìng)速賽。

然而與此同時(shí)，這些公司都在抗拒支持上述目標(biāo)的環(huán)保措施。這種對(duì)抗如今已經(jīng)延伸到了2025年輕型車(chē)溫室氣體排放和燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，其中規(guī)定屆時(shí)的轎車(chē)和多功能車(chē)的汽油里程數(shù)需要翻倍，達(dá)到54.5英里。這份計(jì)劃是我在環(huán)境保護(hù)署（Environmental Protection Agency, EPA）工作時(shí)幫助擬定的。它于2012年生效，對(duì)關(guān)鍵的環(huán)境需求與行業(yè)的擔(dān)憂做了平衡。不過(guò)這一巨大的成就如今有著崩潰的危險(xiǎn)。在汽車(chē)業(yè)的煽動(dòng)之下，總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普治下的環(huán)境保護(hù)署如今正在考慮是否需要廢除這一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或是推延達(dá)成時(shí)間。

今年10月，是這個(gè)歷史性項(xiàng)目誕生的五周年。事實(shí)已經(jīng)證明，對(duì)于汽車(chē)廠商、消費(fèi)者、能源安全和我們的地球而言，它是一個(gè)多贏的選擇。汽車(chē)業(yè)首次有了一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的全國(guó)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，有了長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃和投資的方向——這種監(jiān)管的穩(wěn)定性正是環(huán)境保護(hù)署的行政官斯科特·普瑞特聲稱他將在放松環(huán)保要求的同時(shí)努力實(shí)現(xiàn)的。從那時(shí)起，整個(gè)行業(yè)不僅滿足了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且還走在了前面。2016年銷售的汽車(chē)中，有大約17%，即250萬(wàn)輛，已經(jīng)達(dá)到了2020年汽油里程數(shù)大約41英里的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

駕駛者成了最大的贏家，他們已經(jīng)在燃料上節(jié)約了超過(guò)470億美元。如果我們繼續(xù)這一進(jìn)程，利好也會(huì)進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)：到2030年，我們每天使用的原油量將會(huì)減少240萬(wàn)桶，駕駛者在每輛汽車(chē)在使用壽命期間將節(jié)約6,000美元。

汽車(chē)業(yè)已經(jīng)從2008-09年的蕭條深淵中爬了上來(lái)，奧巴馬政府必須幫助它擺脫困境。汽車(chē)業(yè)的利潤(rùn)達(dá)到了10年來(lái)的新高。這些成功的部分原因，在于如今遵守燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)定的成本實(shí)際上已經(jīng)低于2012年的估計(jì)值。

許多美國(guó)人認(rèn)為需要繼續(xù)維持該標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這毫不令人驚訝。在環(huán)境保護(hù)署最近的一次聽(tīng)證會(huì)上，近100名不同的發(fā)言者給出了證據(jù)來(lái)支持2025年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并表示其利好遠(yuǎn)大于代價(jià)。

藍(lán)綠聯(lián)盟（Blue Green Alliance）證明，清潔汽車(chē)技術(shù)支撐了48個(gè)州超過(guò)1,200家機(jī)構(gòu)超過(guò)28.8萬(wàn)個(gè)制造和工程崗位。在克利夫蘭的美國(guó)鋼鐵工人聯(lián)合會(huì)（United Steelworkers）Local 970的主席丹·布恩表示，監(jiān)管推動(dòng)了創(chuàng)新，進(jìn)而創(chuàng)造了工作崗位，例如使用輕型鋼來(lái)提高燃料經(jīng)濟(jì)性。前海軍和確保美國(guó)未來(lái)能源組織（Securing America’s Future Energy）董事長(zhǎng)詹姆斯·康威將軍談到燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)如何代表了應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)外原油聯(lián)盟的“最強(qiáng)大武器”之一。消費(fèi)者協(xié)會(huì)（Consumers Union）則證實(shí)：他們的調(diào)查表明，公眾對(duì)實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)有著壓倒性的支持。

汽車(chē)公司非理性行為最有可能的理由，是董事會(huì)會(huì)議室的過(guò)時(shí)觀點(diǎn)，他們認(rèn)為監(jiān)管的放松意味著更高的利潤(rùn)。這些董事會(huì)成員需要后退一步，考慮讓公司把握未來(lái)。特斯拉誕生于加利福尼亞州，這里的環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)歷來(lái)嚴(yán)格，然而在過(guò)去五年里，該公司的市值從大約30億美元飆升到超過(guò)560億美元，幾乎達(dá)到了通用汽車(chē)的估值，并遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)甩開(kāi)了福特（Ford）或菲亞特-克萊斯勒（Fiat Chrysler）。優(yōu)步（Uber）讓拼車(chē)成為了一種全球現(xiàn)象，公司的市值也從幾乎為0漲到了今年早些時(shí)候的近700億美元。

也許前共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人米特·羅姆尼在2011年的話，可以最好地解釋這些公司的行為：“企業(yè)是人，我的朋友。”而正如塞勒解釋的那樣，人是最不理性的。我只希望他們能看到，公司以后長(zhǎng)期的生存能力依賴于對(duì)未來(lái)交通的堅(jiān)定投入——一個(gè)清潔、智能、共享的未來(lái)。他們沒(méi)辦法同時(shí)倒車(chē)和前進(jìn)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

?

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Last week Richard Thaler won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on humans’ lack of rational decision making. When asked how he would spend the $1.1 million prize Thaler had the perfect answer: “I will try to spend it as irrationally as possible.”

Coming from a 72-year-old academic, it was a funny line. But it also reminded me of the not-quite-as-humorous but very irrational behavior of U.S. auto companies when dealing with the future of the transportation industry.

On one hand, not a week goes by without a different carmaker announcing another investment in the trifecta of environmentally friendly mobility options: electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles. Some, like Volvo and Jaguar, have declared that their entire fleet will be “electrified” in the near future. Others, including Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, and GM, seem to be in an innovation drag race.

But these same companies are simultaneously fighting against environmental protections that encourage these goals. This battle has now extended to include the historic 2025 Light Duty Vehicle Standards for cars and SUVs, which will double the gas mileage to 54.5 miles per gallon by then. The plan I helped develop when I was at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) came into effect in 2012 and balanced critical environmental needs with the industry’s concerns. But this huge accomplishment is now at risk of crumbling. At the instigation of the auto industry, President Donald Trump’s EPA is now evaluating whether to rescind or delay the standards.

This October marks the fifth anniversary of the historic program, which has proven to be a win-win for automakers, consumers, energy security, and the planet. The industry had, for the first time, a unified national program with a long horizon for planning and investment—exactly the sort of regulatory certainty EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt claims he’s striving forwhile rolling back environmental protections. Since then, the entire industry has been able to not just meet but stay ahead of the standards. Some 17% of the 2016 models sold, or about 2.5 million vehicles, already meet the 2020 standards of approximately 41 miles per gallon.

Drivers have been big winners, saving more than $47 billion on fuel already. If we stay the course, the benefits grow: By 2030, we’ll cut our oil use by 2.4 million barrels every day, and drivers will save $6,000 over the life of their vehicles.

The industry has risen from the depths of the 2008–09 recession, when the Obama administration had to bail it out. Auto industry profits are touching 10-year highs. These successes are in part because the actual cost of compliance with the fuel economy regulations are lower today than was estimated in 2012.

Not surprisingly, a huge cross-section of Americans believe that the standards need to stay. At a recent EPA public hearing, nearly 100 different speakers gave testimony supporting the 2025 standards and describing how their benefits far outweigh costs.

The Blue Green Alliance testified how clean vehicle technology supports 288,000 manufacturing and engineering jobs at more than 1,200 facilities in 48 states. Dan Boone, president of United Steelworkers Local 970 in Cleveland, said the regulations push innovations that in turn create jobs, such as lightweight steel to improve fuel economy. A former Marine and chief executive at Securing America’s Future Energy, Gen. James Conway talked how the standards represent one of the “greatest weapons” against reliance on foreign oil. Consumers Union testified how their surveys indicate the overwhelming public supportfor strong fuel economy standards.

The most likely reason for the irrational behavior of auto companies is an anachronistic belief in boardrooms that regulatory rollback means higher profits. These board members need to take a step back and consider the companies seizing the future. Tesla, born and bred on California’s historically stricter environmental standards, has seen its market cap explode over the past five years from around $3 billion to over $56 billion, roughly the same as GM’s valuation and well ahead of Ford or Fiat Chrysler. Uber, the company that made ride-sharing a global phenomenon, went from a market cap of virtually nothing to nearly $70 billionearlier this year.

Perhaps these companies’ behavior can best be explained by former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s 2011 quote, “Corporations are people, my friend.” And people, as Thaler explained, are perfectly irrational individuals. I can only hope they see that their long-term viability depends on an unequivocal commitment to the future of transportation—a future that is clean, smart, and shared. They can’t shift into reverse and drive forward at the same time.

作者馬戈·歐格在1994年至2012年期間擔(dān)任環(huán)境保護(hù)署交通與空氣質(zhì)量辦公室的主任。他還是《駛向未來(lái)：利用更清潔、更智能的汽車(chē)對(duì)抗氣候變化》一書(shū)的作者。

Margo Oge, who served as the director of the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality from 1994 to 2012, is the author of Driving the Future: Combating Climate Change with Cleaner, Smarter Cars.