伴隨著轟轟烈烈的宣傳和必將成為主流的看好聲，特斯拉最近高調推出了其最新款的Model 3轎車。這款新車的續航里程為350多公里，3.5萬美元的起售價也是較為實惠的，基本與凱利藍皮書（Kelley Blue Book）給出的目前市場上34,721美元的新車銷售均價保持一致。但現在就說Model 3是一款“主流”轎車，似乎有一點“欽定了”的意思，畢竟不管怎么說它都是一臺電動轎車。實際上，Model 3唯一“主流”的，也就只有它的價格了。

我在2014年曾為國美國國家科學院的國家研究委員會撰寫過一篇名叫《克服插電式電動汽車的部署壁壘》的報告。在這份研究中，我們將布賴斯·萊恩和尼爾·格羅斯1943年發明的“創新曲線”的概念引入了對電動汽車采用率的研究。根據萊恩和格羅斯的理論，創新者（約占社會總人口的2.5%）是最樂于承擔采用創新產品的風險的，因為哪怕他們失敗了，他們手中的資源也耗得起不完善的新技術造成的損失。比如說2008年前后第一批購買特斯拉Roadster跑車的人，以及第一批購買Models和Model X的人。當年的特斯拉因為歐翼式車門的問題可是鬧出過不少波折的。

在創新曲線上排在第二位的是“早期采用者”，約占社會總人口的13.5%。他們對所采用的技術更加挑剔，同時他們也是英特爾這種科技公司的新技術的目標用戶，只要企業一再保證新技術的可靠性，他們也是樂于嘗試的。他們對價格會更敏感一些，不過仍有一定的風險容忍度。在當今社會，“早期采用者”也被稱為“影響者”。目前的Model S車主和已經交了Model 3定金的人，都可以算作創新技術的“早期采用者”。

下一組是“早期多數使用者”，約占總人口的34%。這部分人需要被說服才會采用新技術。不過只要他們發現新技術能夠造福他們的生活，他們還是樂于采用的。這些人也是伊隆·馬斯克和特斯拉最需要的客戶群。

考慮到在美國的購車群體中，每年購買電動汽車者只有1%左右，可以說電動汽車技術本身仍然可以歸為“創新產品”一類。混動汽車投放市場已有20年之久，可是據汽車網站MotorIntelligence報道，2016年，混動汽車占新車銷售的份額仍然只有少得可憐的2.2%，較2013年的3.3%還有所下降。另據IHS Markit報道，目前混動和電動汽車的銷量加起來，只占了全球新車銷量的3%左右。混動汽車花了20年時間，才勉強越過了“創新者”那2.5%。每個月有超過1600萬名消費者到凱利藍皮書上搜索新車信息，然而其中只有3%的人研究過豪華電動汽車，考慮過混動車的人更是只有2%。

除了大家對購買電動汽車普遍興致不高，特斯拉要想吸引“早期多數使用者”的關注，還面臨著其他一些挑戰。首先是Model 3的尺寸和體型，Model 3大致可以歸入緊湊豪華車市場，大概就是寶馬3系和奧迪A4這一級別。Model 3是一款四門家轎，并不是一款掀背車。然而隨著消費者對功能性的要求越來越高，目前銷量最火的卻是SUV。Model 3雖然也有前后儲物廂，但它的載貨能力和目前市場上最火的緊湊型SUV相比，顯然還是差了一大截。

另一個壁壘則是特斯拉的抵稅配額快用完了。美國從2009年開始，給予了汽車廠商生產的前20萬輛汽車每輛7,500美元的稅收抵免政策。如果考慮到Model S和Model X的銷量，再加上少量的Roadster，特斯拉的配額差不多已經用了一半多了。據估算，到2018年末，消費者在購買特斯拉時就將無法享受到稅收優惠，而這時正是特斯拉需要沖銷量、在創新曲線上再拱一拱的時候。雖然美國有些州針對電動汽車頒布了一些利好政策，然而同時這些州也留了一些后手，有的要求收入達到一定水平者不得享受稅收優惠，還有的對電動汽車車主征收了更高的手續費，相當于變相征收了燃油稅。這些都有可能對電動汽車的采用率造成影響，哪怕電動汽車的電池成本越來越低、路上的充電站越來越多了。

當然，汽車界也沒有光看特斯拉的熱鬧。印度、英國、法國和中國等國正在呼吁在2030年或2040年前將汽車全面電動化。在這種大背景下，無論是平價品牌還是豪華品牌，在2020年前都會推出至少一款電動車型，不管消費者到底想不想買。屆時，大多數電動汽車都會達到300英里以上的續航里程，同時建成較為完善的經銷商和維保服務網絡。在美國，通用汽車和日產公司可能到2018年左右就會用完減稅配額，不過隨著各大廠商與特斯拉在電動車市場的競爭日益激烈，其他一些汽車公司也很可能會爭取到聯邦和各州的更多稅收優惠。

馬斯克給特斯拉的Model 3畫出了一條極富野心的產能曲線，很多人對此有所擔心也是正常的，一家汽車工廠的大規模量產也不是件容易的事。同時很多人對特斯拉的充電樁網絡、特許經營中面臨的法律問題和車輛的維保問題也表示擔心。不過這些問題有不少還在馬斯克的掌控之內。而消費者是否相信電動汽車（尤其是特斯拉）比傳統汽車更適合他們的生活，這是馬斯克目前掌控不了的，也是特斯拉走向主流所要面對的真正的挑戰。（財富中文網）

本文作者Rebecca Lindland是凱利藍皮書的一名高級分析師。

譯者：賈政景

With much fanfare and talk of going mainstream, Tesla recently unveiled its latest baby, the Model 3, with a base range of 220 miles and an accessible starting price of $35,000. The Model 3 sedan’s price is right in line with today’s average transaction price of $34,721 for a new car, according to my employer, Kelley Blue Book. But calling the Model 3 mainstream is a bit of a misnomer, given that the vehicle is, regardless of price, electric. In fact, the only thing mainstream about the Model 3 is the price.

As part of my work on the 2014 report, “Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-In Electric Vehicles,” for the National Research Council at the National Academies, we applied the innovation curve, as first created by Bryce Ryan and Neal Gross in 1943, to electric vehicle adoption. According to Ryan and Gross, innovators (2.5% of the population) are willing to take risks even if they fail, since they have the resources to withstand an imperfect technology; think Tesla Roadster buyers circa 2008 and first-in-line Model S owners, as well as Model X buyers, due to the falcon-wing doors.

Next on the curve are early adopters (13.5%), who are a bit choosier about the technology they adopt, and are seen as the go-to resource for intel on new tech, providing reassurances about its viability. They are more price sensitive, but still risk tolerant. In today’s world, early adopters are also known as influencers; I would argue these are current Model S owners and Model 3 deposit holders and soon-to-be buyers.

The next set is the early majority (34%). Early majority mindsets need convincing—they’re willing to embrace technology, as long as they understand how it fits into their lives. These are the people Elon Musk and Tesla needs most.

Given that only about 1% of all new car buyers purchase an electric vehicle every year in the U.S., the technology itself is still very much in the innovator class. Even hybrids, in the market for nearly 20 years now, accounted for just 2.2% of new car sales in 2016, down from a high of 3.3% in 2013, according to MotorIntelligence. In fact, IHS Markit reports that hybrid and electric vehicles combined for just 3% of new car sales globally, so it’s taken 20 years for hybrids to move beyond the “innovator” 2.5%. Over 16 million unique shoppers come to Kelley Blue Book every month to research cars. Only about 3% research luxury electric cars and only about 2% research hybrid vehicles.

Tesla faces other challenges to reaching the early majority in addition to the general disinterest in purchasing electric vehicles. One of those is the Model 3’s size and body style, which falls into the compact luxury sedan category, similar to the BMW 3-Series or Audi A4. The Model 3 is a four-door sedan, not even a hatch, in a world where SUV sales are booming as consumers demand more utility from their rides. While the Model 3 does have a front and rear trunk, it doesn’t have anywhere near the cargo capacity of a compact SUV so popular in today’s market.

Another barrier is the $7,500 federal tax credit currently available for buyers of the first 200,000 units a manufacturer sells in the U.S., which started in 2009. Sales of the Model S and Model X, with a few Roadsters thrown in, mopped up more than half of Tesla’s 200,000 unit allotment. By some estimates, Tesla shoppers will no longer be eligible for the tax credit starting in mid to late 2018, just when it needs some financial risk mitigation to move through the innovation curve. While some states are offering incentives, a new trend is for those states to not only apply a salary cap to eligibility for a tax credit, but impose fees on electric vehicle owners to make up for not paying taxes on fuel. This could further stifle adoption, even in the face of decreasing battery costs and increasing availability of charging stations.

The rest of the automotive world is not standing still either. In response to increasingly discordant regulations calling for the complete ban of internal combustion engine vehicles by India, U.K., France, and China by a seemingly arbitrary 2030 or 2040 deadline, nearly every luxury and non-luxury brand will have an electric vehicle in its stable by 2020, whether consumers want them or not. Most if not all will have a 300-plus mile range, along with a well-established dealer body for sales and services. GM and Nissan will probably lose their tax credit sometime around 2018, but many other companies will be able to sweeten the pot with state and federal credits, providing additional competition to Tesla just as the current backlog is fulfilled.

There’s a lot of well-justified angst over the highly aggressive production curve Musk outlined for Tesla for the Model 3, and ramping up a vehicle plant is no small feat. There’s also a lot of skepticism about its charging network, dealer franchise laws, and servicing the vehicles. But many—if not all—of these issues fall within the circle of Musk’s control. What falls outside that realm is the consumer’s willingness to accept the notion that an electric vehicle—and a Tesla in particular—fits into their lives better than an internal combustion engine does. That’s the real challenge to Tesla going mainstream.

Rebecca Lindland is an executive analyst at Kelley Blue Book.