上周，法國宣布了一項十分激進的計劃：在2040年全面禁止銷售完全以汽油或柴油為動力的車輛。其他國家，像印度和挪威，也有意實施類似計劃。然而，美國是否有能力或應不應該實施這樣的政策？

專家說，這個問題回答起來很復雜。其中一個問題在于，美國民眾對于氣候變化有著不同的看法。一些很早就已接受電動汽車的人群通過購買電動汽車來減輕環境負擔。然而，有52%的美國人認為人類活動與氣候變化無關，因此環保愿景對于他們來說沒有說服力。在聯邦層面，最近決定退出《巴黎氣候協定》的美國總統唐納德·特朗普在替代能源方面的熱情顯然不及前幾任總統。

紐約大學管理與機構學教授梅麗莎·奇林表示，“我曾經在美國國家科學院的一個委員會工作過，研究電動汽車推廣所面臨的障礙。我們認為連碳稅都無法通過，而且那時候還是奧巴馬執政時期。那一屆政府比現任政府更注重環保。”

另一個問題在于美國巨大的國土面積和地理環境的多樣性。純電動汽車的表現在某些環境下要優于其他動力的交通工具。卡耐基梅隆大學去年發布的調查顯示，如果考慮區域氣候、當地發電方式以及高速公路與市區內行駛里程等因素，一些電動汽車的碳排放量可能要比類似混合動力的車大得多。例如，該研究發現，盡管純電動汽車日產LEAF的碳印記在某些地區要低于電油混合動力的豐田普銳斯，但普銳斯在其他地區則更環保。

該調查的聯席作者、卡耐基梅隆大學工程與公共政策教授杰瑞米·米克拉克說：“相對于直接禁止某項技術，我們莫不如制定一個最終目標，例如減排目標，因為某些汽油和柴油車在減排方面還有很多潛力可挖，而電動汽車在這些領域反而更具破壞力。”杰瑞米·米克拉克還擔任該校汽車電動化集團的董事。

有些人認為，全力推動電動汽車的發展有其合理的經濟因素考量。5月，獨立智囊團RethinkX發布了一篇報道，預測“運輸領域的革命以及內燃機交通工具和石油行業的崩塌”即將于2030年開始。集團聯合創始人詹姆斯·艾比布認為，美國應支持這一轉型，以獲取電動汽車的經濟效益。他預計，無人駕駛技術將與電動汽車齊頭并進，進一步推動經濟的增長。

艾比布對《財富》說：“這對經濟是一個巨大的提振。此舉會增加可支配收入，因為人們在車方面的花費會大大降低。人們開車耗費的時間達到了數十億個小時，他們可以利用節省出來的時間做一些富有成效的事情，而這在開車時是做不到的，同時還不用為市區停車而發愁。”艾比布還指出，聯邦政府可能會讓各州自行決定是否禁止使用燃油動力車。然而，這對于駕駛燃油動力車進行跨州旅行的人來說是不切實際的，他們可能會在邊境上被攔住。

咨詢公司AlixPartners的董事總經理兼汽車業務全球負責人馬克·維克菲爾德認為，與內燃機汽車的競爭對手相比，電動汽車的價格依然過于昂貴。例如，2017年日產LEAF的起步價位30680美元，而豐田普銳斯的價格為23475美元，更不用說高端的特斯拉，它的最高價格達到了近10萬美元。

全球的立法者們想出了多種辦法來降低使用電動汽車的成本。在美國，聯邦政府和一些州政府所提供的一些鼓勵政策大幅降低了電動汽車的最終價格。然而，維克菲爾德認為，混合動力汽車可以成為一個有效、經濟、環保的權宜之計，同時還不用擔心純電動車的高成本問題和其他缺點，例如無需在長途旅行中頻繁充電。

他解釋說：“雖然法國已經邁出了這一步，但他們也表現出了務實的一面。盡管法國正在推行這一政策，但他們也在轉而使用最具效益的方法。很顯然，法國正在幫助其工業向這一方面轉型，同時他們也很務實，因為他們注意到混合動力是一個更加經濟的選擇。”

維克菲爾德和米克拉克都表示，隨著電動汽車價格的日漸實惠（與燃油動力車相比），電動汽車會變得越來越有吸引力。一旦出現這種情況，美國人便會發現，內燃機車輛禁令并非是難以接受。隨著電動汽車技術的繼續發展，以及像特斯拉、沃爾沃這樣的汽車制造商繼續投資這一領域，其成本最終會下降。但是就現在看來，在美國全面禁止燃油動力汽車仍是不可行的。（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

審稿：夏林

France this week announced a bold plan to ban the sale of all fully-gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles by 2040. Other countries, like India and Norway, have expressed interest in similar plans. But could, or should, the United States implement such a policy?

The answer, experts say, is complicated. One problem is the country's mixed attitude towards climate change. Some early adopters of electric vehicles are buying the cars to be more eco-friendly. But that motivation wouldn't drive the 52% of Americans who don't believe human activity is changing the climate. And at the federal level, President Donald Trump, who recently decided to exit the Paris climate accords, has been cooler towards alternative energy solutions than past presidents.

"When I was serving on a committee studying the obstacles to adoption of electric vehicles at the National Academy of Sciences, we concluded that there was no possibility of even getting a carbon tax passed, and that was under the Obama administration, which had a much more pro-environment stance than our current administration," said Melissa Schilling, a professor of management and organizations at New York University.

Another issue is the country's sheer size and geographic diversity. Fully electric vehicles perform better in some environments than others. A study from Carnegie Mellon University published last year found that some electric cars can produce significantly more emissions than similar hybrid vehicles depending on factors like regional climate, local power generation methods and the amount of highway versus city driving being done. For example, the study found that while the entirely battery-powered Nissan LEAF has a smaller carbon footprint than the gas-electric hybrid Toyota Prius in some areas, the Prius was more eco-friendly in others.

"It's better to target an end goal like emissions reduction rather than the outright banning of a technology because there are certain gas and diesel vehicles that can do a lot towards limiting emissions, whereas electric cars can actually be more damaging," said Jeremy Michalek, co-author of the study and a professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon, where he also serves as the director of the school's Vehicle Electrification Group.

Some argue there are good economic reasons to go full speed ahead on electric cars. In May, independent think tank RethinkX published a report predicting a "disruption of transportation and the collapse of the internal combustion vehicle and oil industries" starting as soon as 2030. James Arbib, cofounder of the group, believes the U.S. should support that transition to reap the economic benefits of electric vehicles, which he expects will converge with the development of autonomous driving technology, spurring further growth.

"This is a huge boost of the economy," Arbib told Fortune. "It will lead to more disposable income because people will spend far less on their cars. People will have time freed up which they can use to do productive things that they can't when driving — billions of hours — and less need for parking throughout cities." Arbib added that the federal government could leave a potential ban on gasoline cars up to the states, but that could prove unworkable for interstate road-trippers with gas-powered cars who may find themselves blocked at the border.

Mark Wakefield, managing director and global co-head of the automotive practice at consulting firm AlixPartners, argues that electric vehicles remain too expensive compared to their internal combustion counterparts. For example, the 2017 Nissan LEAF starts at $30,680 compared to $23,475 for a comparable Toyota Prius. That's to say nothing of high-end Teslas, which can cost upwards of $100,000.

Lawmakers worldwide have pushed for ways to bring down the costs of going electric. In the U.S., the federal government and some states offer incentives that can considerably reduce the final price of electric vehicles. But Wakefield argues that hybrid vehicles can be an effective, affordable and eco-friendly stopgap solution without the high costs and other drawbacks of entirely electric cars, like the need to frequently recharge on long trips.

"As far as France pushed their policy, they have also showed a pragmatism that while they are pushing for this, they are also changing their methods to what's most cost-effective," he explained. "It's certainly helping move their industry towards that, they were practical because they saw that hybrids are a much more economic answer."

Wakefield and Michalek both said that electric vehicles will likely become more attractive to consumers as they become more affordable compared to gasoline cars. If and when that happens, Americans could find a ban on internal combustion vehicles could become more palatable. As electric vehicle technology continues to improve and automakers like Tesla and Volvo continue to invest in the field, costs may eventually come down. But for now, an outright ban on gasoline cars on American roads remains unlikely.