日前，穆迪投資者服務將中國主權信用評級下調(diào)一個等級，降至“A1”。該機構預計，作為全球第二大經(jīng)濟體，今后幾年中國的金融實力將變?nèi)酰蚴窃鲩L放緩以及債務不斷上升。

中國政府對穆迪的決定表示強烈不滿，稱此舉基于不恰當?shù)姆椒ǎ浯罅酥袊?jīng)濟面對的困難，并且低估了中國政府為改革付出的努力。

對于這樣的評價，穆迪高管瑪麗?迪倫上周五回應說，為了控制債務快速增長帶來的風險，中國政府制定了“宏大改革方案”，這一直讓穆迪感到鼓舞。

迪倫稱，穆迪認為這樣的改革或許能降低中國的債務增速，但中國的債務規(guī)模不會急劇下降，而且中國的改革也不足以遏制債務的增長。

作為穆迪主權風險部副董事總經(jīng)理，迪倫在網(wǎng)絡直播中做出了上述表示。

穆迪信用策略和標準部副總裁李秀軍也參與了此次網(wǎng)絡直播，她說如果有跡象表明中國債務增長的速度超過了穆迪的預期，中國或許就不能再獲得“A1”評級。

李秀軍說：“如果今后中國的結構性改革可以更有效地防止其負債率上升，而且不會在銀行和影子銀行領域引發(fā)更大風險，那就會對中國的評級產(chǎn)生積極影響。”

但她也指出：“如果有跡象表明中國的債務將繼續(xù)上升，而且增速超過我們的預期，進而造成資本嚴重錯配，則中期經(jīng)濟增長就會繼續(xù)承壓，并對主權評級產(chǎn)生不利影響。”

“中國或許無法再達到A1評級的要求。”

李秀軍未給出具體債務水平目標，也未說明今后進行評估的時間表。

政府主導的促增長措施一直是近年來中國經(jīng)濟增長的主要動力，但也一直伴隨著信貸的迅猛上升，進而產(chǎn)生了大量債務。目前中國的債務總額接近GDP的三倍。

迪倫說：“中國政府實施這些政策以及化解部分違約風險的財力和政策能力是A1評級非常重要的支持因素。A1是我們評級體系中的第五個等級，我們認為中國此項評級的前景很穩(wěn)定。”

中國政府已經(jīng)表示，將采取措施來降低債務水平，包括債轉股、國企混合所有制改革、削減過剩產(chǎn)能以及最近加強對影子銀行的監(jiān)管。

但政府部門也迫切希望實現(xiàn)官方經(jīng)濟增長目標，而且迄今為止一直行事謹慎，特別是在今年晚些時候要進行領導層更迭的情況下。

迪倫指出，雖然穆迪預計今后幾年中國經(jīng)濟增速將從去年的6.7%降至5%左右，但中國經(jīng)濟仍將很有活力，硬著陸的可能性很小。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

The comments came days after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's sovereign ratings on Wednesday by one notch to A1, saying it expects the financial strength of the world's second-largest economy will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.

China has strongly criticized Moody's decision, saying it was based on inappropriate methodology, exaggerating difficulties facing the economy and underestimating the government's reform efforts.

In response to those comments, senior Moody's official Marie Diron said on Friday that the ratings agency has been encouraged by the "vast reform agenda" undertaken by the Chinese authorities to contain risks from a rapid buildup in debt.

Moody's believes that the reforms may slow the pace at which debt is building up, but China's debt will not drop dramatically and it will not be enough to arrest rising debt, Diron said.

Diron, associate managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, made the comments in a webcast.

China may no longer get an A1 rating if there are signs that debt is growing at a pace that exceeds Moody's expectations, Li Xiujun, vice president of credit strategy and standards at the ratings agency, said in the same webcast.

"If in the future China's structural reforms can prevent its leverage from rising more effectively without increasing risks in the banking and shadow banking sector, then it will have a positive impact on China's rating," Li said.

But Li added: "If there are signs that China's debt will keep rising and the rate of growth is beyond our expectations, leading to serious capital misallocation, then it will continue to weigh on economic growth in the medium term and impact the sovereign rating negatively."

"China may no longer suit the requirement of A1 rating."

Li did not give a specific target for debt levels nor timeframe for further assessments.

Government-led stimulus has been a major driver of China's economic growth over recent years, but has also been accompanied by runaway credit growth that has created a mountain of debt - now standing at nearly 300 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

"The financial and policy capacity that the Chinese government has to implement such measures and to mitigate some of the default risks is a very important element in supporting the rating at A1, which is the fifth highest rating in our tier, and our view that the outlook of that rating level is stable," Diron said.

China has vowed to lower its debt level by rolling out measures such as debt-to-equity swaps, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) mixed-ownership reforms, reduction of excess capacity, and more recently regulatory tightening in the shadow banking sector.

But authorities are also keen to meet official economic growth targets, and moves so far have been cautious, especially heading into a key political leadership reshuffle later this year.

While Moody's expects China's growth to slow to around 5 percent in coming years, from 6.7 percent last year, the economy will remain robust, and the likelihood of a hard landing is slim, Diron said.