判斷對于某個科技潮流的炒作是否已經達到頂峰，方法很簡單。只需問問這幾個問題：那些最著名的風險投資家是否正在抱怨估值問題？大型科技公司是否在初創公司早期甚至還不算真正的公司時就開始收購它們？《財富》500強公司的高管會討論潮流相關的戰略嗎？如果以上的答案是肯定的，那么恭喜你！你發現了一個潮流。小部分幸運的先行者將會借此獲得無盡的財富。而當我們剩下的人有所察覺時，已經太晚了。

接下來，我們可以看看當今的流行趨勢：人工智能。美國的風險投資家正在反復念叨著“人工智能就是新時代的手機”。中國互聯網服務公司百度的首席科學家吳恩達則將人工智能的影響力比作“新時代的電”。不過，科技界的思想領袖越是大力宣揚某些潮流，它就越可能銷聲匿跡。（例如，每日特惠是“商業的未來”；SoLoMo——社交、本地、移動是“營銷的未來”；按需服務是“工作的未來”；聊天機器人Chatbot是“客戶服務的未來”。）

然而，內行人士仍然在人工智能的初創公司上不斷下注。CB Insights的數據顯示，去年，風投公司對658家公司投資了50億美元，同比增加61%。收購方也干勁十足。去年，至少有40家人工智能初創公司被收購，買方主要是大型科技公司，這一趨勢預計還將在2017年繼續。谷歌（Google）的企業發展主管唐?哈里森將并購人工智能公司看作頭等大事。他表示錢不是問題：“我們絕對以人工智能為先。我們會關注（估值），但沒有必要擔心它。”

人工智能往往缺乏明確的商業案例，但這也沒有關系。Salesforce負責企業發展的執行副總裁約翰?紹莫爾堯伊表示：“他們還不是公司。這些（交易）主要關乎技術和人才。”

多年前，我們對虧損的移動初創公司的估值表示過驚訝，也嘲笑過一些公司商業模式的匱乏，例如谷歌在2005年以大約5,000萬美元買下的安卓（Android）。但情況變了：如今我們希望每家公司都有移動戰略，因為這個大前提已經毋庸置疑了。與此同時，安卓成為了全球最流行的移動操作系統。

未來幾年內，人工智能會成為主流嗎？它是類似于SoLoMo的一時狂熱，還是類似手機的革命性技術？如果公司和投資者認為是后者，他們就應該向這項技術傾注資金。未來五年內，人工智能可能會成為各個行業客戶服務、營銷、產品開發、銷售等一切業務流程中存在的功能。屆時，我們就會明白，那些幸運的先行者們并不只是借機致富，他們實際上是在塑造未來。

本文印刷版見于《財富》2017年3月1日刊。

譯者：嚴匡正

There’s an easy way to tell when the hype around a technology trend has peaked. Ask yourself the following: Are the smartest venture capitalists complaining about valuations? Are big tech companies snapping up startups so young they can barely be considered real businesses? Are Fortune 500 executives talking about their [insert trend here] strategy? If the answer to any of these questions is yes, congratulations! You’ve identified a fad. A small, lucky handful of early movers will ride it to untold riches. By the time the rest of us find out about the phenomenon, it’s too late.

Consider, then, today’s hot trend: Artificial intelligence. Venture capitalists across the country are parroting the phrase “AI is the new mobile.” Andrew Ng, chief scientist of Baidu, the Chinese Internet services company, declared that AI is “the new electricity.” The more intensely tech thought leaders proclaim that a trend is here to stay, the more rapidly it tends to vanish. (Daily deals were “the future of commerce.” SoLoMo—social, local, mobile—was “the future of marketing.” On-demand services were “the future of work.” Chatbots were “the future of customer service.”)

And yet the smart money continues its embrace of AI startups. Last year VCs invested $5 billion in 658 companies, a 61% increase over the year prior, according to CB Insights. Acquirers are getting aggressive too. Last year corporations, mostly big tech companies, bought at least 40 AI startups, a trend that’s expected to continue in 2017. Identifying AI acquisitions is a top priority for Don Harrison, head of corporate development at Google. “We’re definitely AI-first,” he says, noting that price is not a sticking point. “We pay attention to [valuation] but don’t necessarily worry about it.”

The fact that AI often lacks a clear business case doesn’t matter. “These are not businesses,” says John Somorjai, executive vice president of corporate development at Salesforce, which has acquired a handful of AI companies. “These [deals] are about technology and talent.”

Years ago we marveled at the valuations of money-losing mobile startups and snickered at the lack of a business model at companies like Android, which Google bought in 2005 for around $50 million. Things have changed: Today we expect every company to have a mobile strategy because the very premise is a given. Meanwhile Android is the most popular mobile operating system in the world.

Will artificial intelligence be a given in the years to come? Is AI a short-lived fad on par with SoLoMo—or a revolution like mobile? If companies and investors believe the latter, they should be pouring money into the technology. In five years artificial intelligence could exist as a layer of capability atop every business process, from customer service and marketing to product development and sales, across every industry. And then it will be clear that the lucky early movers weren’t just riding a fad to riches—they were shaping the future.

A version of this article appears in the March 1, 2017 issue of Fortune.