美國總統唐納德·特朗普在白宮會見哈雷戴維森公司高層和工會代表，華盛頓，2017年2月2日。拍照時間結束時特朗普說，就美國和伊朗目前的爭議而言，“沒有什么是不能談的”。

唐納德·特朗普也許根本沒有激發出經濟的動物精神。

大選剛剛結束時，許多評論人士都說特朗普當選以及他放松管制、減少稅收的承諾似乎從心理上鼓舞了經濟。美聯儲成員上個月確實也表示，衡量消費者信心和公司活躍程度的指標看來出現了好轉。

但這些動物精神，也就是經濟學家所說的此類樂觀跡象唯獨沒有出現在貸款中，而貸款是反映今后經濟活動的相當好的指標。

研究網站Bankregdata公布的新數據顯示，去年最后三個月美國銀行貸款增速下降。在這個季度，美國銀行貸款余額僅比上季度提高了0.8%，這是近兩年來的最小升幅。銀行貸款在此期間增長了700億美元，低于去年二、三季度的900億和1100億美元。

此外，從經濟上講特朗普當選后最應該“喜大普奔”的就是公司借款，或者說企業應該為了大規模投資而爭相貸款，但看來它反而成了減速最厲害的那一個。去年第四季度，所謂的工商貸款下降了20億美元。這是三年多以來企業借款首次出現滑坡——大衰退至今，它一直是增長最快的一類貸款。

說來也怪，令人失望的貸款數據對特朗普來說有可能是件好事。這位總統曾表示，多德-弗蘭克法案等條條框框制約了銀行貸款，包括向他的朋友們提供的貸款。幾乎沒有證據能體現這一點。然而，如果銀行借貸持續放緩，特朗普或許就會有更多的理由來解除管制。特朗普早就說過，他愿意這樣做。

雖然股市在特朗普當選后一度走強，但越來越多的跡象表明，特朗普幾乎已經成了經濟“減速帶”，至少目前是這樣。已經有人指出，特朗普的施政建議，特別是在貿易方面的，甚至有可能正在損害美國經濟，進而使其出現“特朗普”大滑坡。資產管理公司貝萊德（BlackRock）首席執行官、總統商業顧問委員會成員拉里·芬克在本周三的一次會議上指出，他認為特朗普經濟政策的不確定性已經給全球經濟增長帶來了不利影響。芬克說：“我確實相信目前經濟正在放緩，原因就是這些不確定因素。”（財富中文網）

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作者：Stephen Gandel

譯者：Charlie

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with executives and union representatives from the Harley Davidson company at the White House on February 2, 2017 in Washington, DC. At the end of the photo opportunity, Trump said "nothing is off the table" in relation to current disagreements between the U.S. and Iran.

Perhaps Donald Trump didn't unleash the animal spirits of the economy after all.

Shortly after the election, many commentators suggested that Trump's win, and his promise to cut regulation and taxes, seemed to give the economy a psychological boost. Indeed last month, members of the Federal Reserve noted that measures of consumer confidence and business activity appeared to have improved.

But those animal spirits, as economists call such signs of optimism, are strikingly absent in a pretty good predictor of future economic activity: lending.

According to new data from research website Bankregdata, bank lending slowed in the final three months of last year. In the fourth quarter, loan balances at U.S. banks rose just 0.8% from the quarter before. That was the slowest growth in nearly two years. Overall, banks made an additional $70 billion in loans during the quarter. But that was less than the jump of $110 billion in loans the previous quarter, and $90 billion in the three months before that.

What's more, borrowing by businesses, which were supposed to have been howling the loudest, economically, from Trump's win—that is, companies were expected to pounce on new loans for big investments—seems to have slowed the most. So-called commercial and industrial lending dropped by $2 billion in the fourth quarter. That was the first quarterly drop in business lending, which has been one of the biggest areas of loan growth since the recession, in more than three years.

Oddly, the disappointing lending numbers could be a win for Trump. The President has claimed that regulations such as Dodd-Frank have been holding back lending, including to his friends. There is little evidence of that. But if a slowdown in lending persists, Trump may have more reason to call for a rollback in regulations, something he has long said he would like to happen.

While the market shot up after Trump's election, there are growing signs that the economy, at least so far, has gotten nearly as much of a bump from Trump. Some are starting to suggest that his policy proposals, particularly on trade, could even be hurting the economy, driving us into a Trump slump. On Wednesday, Larry Fink, CEO of money manager BlackRock and a member of the president's CEO advisory board, told a conference that he thought uncertainties around Trump's economic policies were already having a negative impact on global growth. "I actually believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown as we speak because of all the uncertainty," Fink said.