商業領袖現在意識到，如果不提早預備可能會頭疼，麻煩在于：候任總統唐納德·特朗普說的話到底要不要認真對待。最新證據就是最近的新聞發布會上，特朗普大罵制藥公司“都是逍遙法外的謀殺犯”。大選結果剛出來時制藥公司股票曾經上揚，因為民主黨候選人希拉里·克林頓一直對藥企很不客氣；大選期間，希拉里曾經指責制藥行業“操縱價格”，相關股票應聲下跌。但現在看起來特朗普比希拉里還極端，所以話音未落藥企股票又跌了一陣。然而不管話怎說，他到底會怎么做呢？

類似的問題一次又一次地出現。最近高盛集團的首席經濟學家在預測中直接斷言，特朗普并不會將貿易保護主義論調堅持到底。其他多家大型銀行預測的也差不多。但如果他真堅持下去了呢？畢竟這些承諾都是他競選獲勝的核心。他還一度表示未來八年內會永久消除聯邦債務——不是每年的預算赤字，他說的可是總計高達13.6萬億美元的公共債務，同時承諾減稅并提升軍隊預算。很顯然，沒有人相信他真能夠做到，甚至可能都不會去試。但如果他真去嘗試了呢？

看來商業領袖，投資者和其他人都得心中有數。如果你從事服務業、建筑業或農業，經營中會涉及移民，其中很多都是非法移民。特朗普會真如之前說的，一上任就立刻大舉驅逐他們么？競選期間他談起已被拘禁的（并不一定已被指控或定罪）非法移民時是這么說的，“我上任第一天，那些人就得走。”他是說真的么？大選結果出來后他在視頻中談過上任百日的工作安排，根本沒有提到這條，看起來并不是真的。但就任典禮還有幾天，他改主意也不是沒可能。

同樣在新聞發布會上，特朗普又說起上任后很快會在墨西哥邊境修筑圍墻，還說“修墻的費用讓墨西哥掏腰包。”之前毫無預兆，他突然冒出費用“有人報銷”。沒過幾個小時，墨西哥總統培尼亞·涅托宣布，墨西哥“當然”不會為美國修墻付錢。此外，特朗普若真要動工，還得通過國會批準，到底能不能批準還很難說。但他說得言之鑿鑿，所以你覺得呢？

前總統喬治·W·布什曾經說過“聽清楚了——不會加稅”，扭頭就提高了稅率，這無異于判了政治死刑。他說的時候人們可都是當真了的。如果特朗普也來這么一招，你還會信他幾分？

用金融術語來說，如今商業領袖每天都要多算一項：特朗普的話得打多少折扣？（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Business leaders now realize, if they didn’t already, that they face an unusual problem: deciding how seriously to take what Donald Trump says. The latest evidence came at news conference recently, when he said pharmaceutical companies are “getting away with murder.” Recall that pharma stocks surged immediately after the election on the assumption that Hillary Clinton had been the anti-drug-company candidate; she had accused the industry of “price gouging” during the campaign, and drug stocks plunged. But now Trump sounds more extreme than Clinton, and those stocks plunged again recently. And yet – what, if anything, will he actually do?

The question comes up time and again. The latest economic forecast from Goldman Sachs’s chief economist simply assumes that Trump will not follow through on his protectionist campaign promises; most other major banks assume the same. Yet what if he does? Those promises were central to the success of his campaign, after all. At one point he said he would entirely eliminate the federal debt – not the annual budget deficit, but the whole $13.6-trillion of debt held by the public – in eight years while also cutting taxes and increasing the military budget. It appears absolutely no one believes he could do it or will even try. But what if he does try?

Business leaders, investors, and others must make these judgments. If you’re in the business of hospitality, construction, or agriculture, you depend on immigrants, many of whom are undocumented. Will Trump order mass deportations immediately upon taking office, as he has said? During the campaign he said of illegal immigrants who had been arrested (not necessarily charged or convicted), “Day one, my first hour in office, those people are gone.” Did he mean it? In a post-election video outlining his priorities for his first hundred days, he didn’t even mention it, suggesting not. But the inauguration is still some days away; he could change his mind.

Also at his news conference, Trump reiterated that construction of a wall on the Mexican border would begin very soon after inauguration and “Mexico will pay for the wall.” Not up front; the cost “will be reimbursed,” he said. Within hours, Mexican President Pe?a Nieto said that “of course” Mexico will not pay for any wall. In addition, Trump needs congressional authorization to begin construction, and it’s far from clear he could get it. Yet his statement was ironclad and unhedged. So what do you believe?

When President George H.W. Bush said “Read my lips – no new taxes” and then raised taxes, it was political death. People took his statements seriously. If Trump made a similar pledge, how much weight would you give it?

Expressed in financial terms, business leaders now have a new calculation to perform every day: how much of a discount to apply to Trump’s words.