公共政策研究所（Institute of Public Policy Research ，IPPR）發(fā)布了一則報(bào)告《未來的證據(jù)：2020年代的英國》（Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s），報(bào)告形容英國脫歐是“在未來十年內(nèi)帶來破壞的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住保貙ⅰ吧羁痰馗淖儭边@個(gè)國家。

報(bào)告稱：“脫歐的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響或?qū)⑹褂鏊傧陆?，投資減少，公共財(cái)政狀況惡化，給英國經(jīng)濟(jì)與生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)帶來嚴(yán)重的后果?！?

“肯定需要做出一些令人痛苦的權(quán)衡取舍。預(yù)計(jì)脫歐公投將使經(jīng)濟(jì)增速更低，投資率更糟糕，公共財(cái)政弱化?！?

該研究所還預(yù)測，英國的人口結(jié)構(gòu)將發(fā)生改變，人口老齡化將會(huì)加速。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織和英國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)，以及其他多項(xiàng)研究的結(jié)果，報(bào)告預(yù)測，到2030年，英國65歲以上人口將比2015年增加30%，而85歲以上人口將增加約一倍。

一方面，人口老齡化將給公共機(jī)構(gòu)帶來壓力，例如國家醫(yī)療服務(wù)體系，而另一方面，工作人口將保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，僅增加不足5%。

此外， 工作的性質(zhì)預(yù)計(jì)也將發(fā)生變化。隨著自動(dòng)化水平的提高和數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)的普及，數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的零售和制造業(yè)崗位將會(huì)消失，收入不平等會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇。

盡管英國所面臨的人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)并非個(gè)案，但脫離歐盟可能導(dǎo)致新的貿(mào)易壁壘，而這或?qū)⑹褂㈡^進(jìn)一步貶值，進(jìn)而增加生活成本。報(bào)告稱，到2030年，英國家庭平均年收入將比英國留在歐盟時(shí)減少1,700英鎊，而低收入家庭將受到最大的影響。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Joseph Hincks

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

The Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), which authored the report — Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s — described Brexit as "the firing gun on a decade of disruption" that would “profoundly reshape" the country.

"The economic implications of Brexit are likely to put the country on a lower growth, lower investment trajectory, worsening the public finances, with important consequences for the UK’s economy and living standards," it said.

"Painful trade-offs are almost certain. Growth is expected to be lower, investment rates worse, and the public finances weaker as a result of Brexit.”

Among other findings, the IPPR predicted a changing demographic for the U.K., with the population aging sharply. On the basis of OEDC and Office of National Statistics (ONS) data — and the findings of numerous other researchers — the report forecast that by 2030 the U.K. population would be comprised of 30% more over-65s and around double the amount of over-85s, compared with 2015 figures.

While the aging population is expected to heap pressure onto public institutions such as the National Health Service, the working age population will remain relatively constant, rising by less than 5%.

The nature of work, too, is expected to change. Increased automation and the digital economy will nix millions of retail and manufacturing jobs and income inequalities will become more pronounced.

While the demographic and economic challenges faced by Britain are not unique, leaving the E.U. is likely to entail new trade barriers, which are expected to drive down the value of the currency and increase costs. By 2030, the average British household will have ￡1,700 per year less than they would have if the country had retained membership of the E.U., the report found. Low-income households, it said, would be hit the hardest.