眼下最讓投資者解不開的謎，莫過于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)官方數(shù)據(jù)的可信度很低，政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的干預(yù)又十分強(qiáng)勢(shì)，搞得各路分析師紛紛撓頭，弄不清中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速到底多快，也說不好當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)出現(xiàn)的變化究竟是私人部門崛起導(dǎo)致的，還是官方干預(yù)的結(jié)果。

去年夏天，滬指一度暴跌超過40%，此后官方的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)也逐步下滑，越來越多的人開始支持這樣一個(gè)論斷：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個(gè)被債務(wù)和政府投資吹起的大泡泡，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)泡泡已經(jīng)被戳破了。本周中國經(jīng)濟(jì)又傳來了更多不利的消息：中國的財(cái)新制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)跌至49.2，這說明中國的制造業(yè)正在收縮。這令中國和各大新興市場(chǎng)都陷入了恐慌。

雖然中國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將“硬著陸”的論斷去年著實(shí)忽悠了不少人，但傳說中的硬著陸其實(shí)并未到來。咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)（High Frequency Economics）的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾?溫伯格認(rèn)為，我們對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)還是應(yīng)該抱有一些希望的。雖然一些唱衰中國者對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的一些指標(biāo)深感悲觀（如工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)停滯），但如果從另一個(gè)角度解讀的話，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前遇到的或許也只是普通的周期性低迷，同時(shí)這可能也是中國從制造型經(jīng)濟(jì)向富裕的服務(wù)主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的過程中不可避免的陣痛。“哪一個(gè)G7國家不想把經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)字和中國換一換？”他還指出，即便是按最悲觀的預(yù)期，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度也是美國的兩倍。

與此同時(shí)，還有一些可靠消息源表示，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭仍然強(qiáng)勁，顯現(xiàn)出了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。有一個(gè)驚人的跡象可以說明中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的生錢速度有多快——中國現(xiàn)在每年的資本輸出額達(dá)到了1萬億美元。也就是說，中國投資人每年買下的外國資產(chǎn)，大約相當(dāng)于一個(gè)墨西哥的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出。除了中國以外，真不知道世界上還有哪個(gè)國家能有這樣大的手筆。 （財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文還將刊發(fā)于2016年6月15日刊的《財(cái)富》雜志上。

譯者：樸成奎

There are few mysteries more confounding to the modern investor than the Chinese economy. Official statistics are so mistrusted and government intervention so rampant that analysts can’t agree on how fast the economy is growing or whether shifts in economic activity are evidence of private-sector strength or bureaucratic meddling.

Last summer’s 40% decline in the Shanghai Composite stock index, followed by steadily declining official growth statistics, has added credibility to the argument that China’s economy is a punctured bubble, inflated by debt and government--sponsored investment and quickly heading toward collapse. This week there was more bad news, with the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index falling to 49.2, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector is in contraction. Cue widespread panic over China and emerging markets in general.

But as much as this “hard landing” theory has gained adherents over the past year, a collapse has yet to come. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at consultancy High Frequency Economics, calls for a little perspective when it comes to the country. The indicators that bears find so damning (industrial sector stagnation) can also be interpreted as evidence of an economy experiencing a humdrum cyclical downturn and of China’s transition from a -manufacturing-based economy to a wealthy, services-driven one. “What G-7 country wouldn’t trade its growth rate for China’s?” he asks, pointing out that even the most pessimistic estimates of Chinese GDP growth are twice that of the U.S.

Meanwhile, there are encouraging signs from credible sources that China’s economy is still strong. One stunning sign of how much cash China’s economy is producing is the fact that the country continues to export $1 trillion in capital a year. That means Chinese investors are buying in foreign assets roughly what the entire Mexican economy produces each year. If only the rest of the world had similar problems.

A version of this article appears in the June 15, 2016 issue of Fortune.