埃隆?穆斯克對(duì)大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車的追求，不僅顛覆了傳統(tǒng)汽車市場(chǎng)，也撼動(dòng)了作為汽車原料的金屬市場(chǎng)。

這一趨勢(shì)體現(xiàn)最明顯的便是鋰市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)殇囌请妱?dòng)汽車所用的鋰離子電池的主要原料。目前，汽車行業(yè)對(duì)鋰已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了明顯的供不應(yīng)求。據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（The Wall Street Journal）報(bào)道，今年第一季度，碳酸鋰（一種制取鋰的中間產(chǎn)品）的價(jià)格已經(jīng)比2015年的平均價(jià)格上漲了47%。據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》引述數(shù)據(jù)供應(yīng)商基準(zhǔn)礦業(yè)情報(bào)（Benchmark Mineral Intelligence，以下簡(jiǎn)稱BMI）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年全年，鋰金屬的價(jià)格上漲了28%，而同期道瓊斯工業(yè)金屬指數(shù)和鉑與貴金屬指數(shù)均下跌了40%以上。

鑒于目前純電動(dòng)車只占全球機(jī)動(dòng)車總量的比例還不足1%，因此市場(chǎng)對(duì)鋰的需求的潛在增長(zhǎng)將是不可估量的。《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》引用了高盛（Goldman Sachs）的一份報(bào)告稱，10年內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)對(duì)鋰的需求可能將翻三番，達(dá)到每年57萬(wàn)噸。穆斯克本周早些時(shí)候曾表示，特斯拉（Tesla）要想滿足年產(chǎn)50萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車的目標(biāo)，“基本上需要吸收全世界的鋰離子產(chǎn)量。”

這一需求增長(zhǎng)很可能出現(xiàn)，而特斯拉只占其中一部分而已。據(jù)BMI指出，到2020年，中國(guó)的鋰離子電池產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到美國(guó)的2倍。特斯拉公司在內(nèi)華達(dá)州開辦的“超級(jí)工廠”雖說(shuō)很可能是全球正在興建中的最大的鋰離子電池工廠，但除它以外，全球正在興建的此類項(xiàng)目至少還有11個(gè)。

其它從電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)的發(fā)展中獲益的金屬可能還包括銅和鋁。電動(dòng)汽車對(duì)銅的用量是傳統(tǒng)汽車的四倍。另外，為了降低車重和燃油消耗，許多公司也開始大量使用鋁來(lái)替代車身鋼材（比如福特的F-150，以及特斯拉Model S的全鋁合金框架）。另外，據(jù)研究機(jī)構(gòu)工業(yè)礦物（Industrial Minerals）估算，光是特斯拉的“超級(jí)工廠”每年就將需要93,000噸的片狀石墨來(lái)生產(chǎn)電極用的電極，相當(dāng)于每年要消耗掉六座石墨礦山。而這也將有力地刺激石墨行業(yè)改良已經(jīng)成為行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的低效開采方法（據(jù)工業(yè)礦物公司（IM）估算，開采出的石墨原料高達(dá)70%都被浪費(fèi)了）。

鋰元素在地殼中的儲(chǔ)量相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)是比較豐富的，但一般很難開采，因?yàn)殇嚨奶釤捴迫〖夹g(shù)需要因地制宜，一塊礦床和另一塊礦床很可能使用的是不同的開采技術(shù)。全球已探明的最大鋰礦位于波利維亞，不過(guò)要想將這里鋰礦運(yùn)到最近的港口，就必須穿越安第斯山脈，否則就要繞過(guò)南美運(yùn)往大西洋。

有人可能會(huì)覺得，有了這種幾乎全新的用途來(lái)提振金屬的礦產(chǎn)需求，采礦行業(yè)肯定會(huì)熱情高漲，因?yàn)槟壳斑@個(gè)行業(yè)幾乎是在全線后退之中。然而事實(shí)上，隨著業(yè)內(nèi)許多之前盲目上馬的項(xiàng)目被關(guān)停（其中一些還是當(dāng)初由于對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)需求的盲目樂觀而建立的），行業(yè)能否為新項(xiàng)目籌集到幾十億美元的資本，目前看來(lái)希望比較渺茫。除此以外，過(guò)去一些年，也不乏許多新概念一度被炒得火熱，結(jié)局卻令人失望的例子。這個(gè)怪圈也害苦了不少獨(dú)立采礦公司。（閱讀《財(cái)富》對(duì)這些公司去年所面臨的麻煩的報(bào)道，請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊此處。）

此外，隨著內(nèi)燃發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)逐步被鋰離子電池取代，數(shù)十億美元投入其它金屬開采的投資也將受到重大影響，比如鉑和鈀等金屬，它們都是催化轉(zhuǎn)換器中不可或缺的催化劑，對(duì)凈化傳統(tǒng)汽車的尾氣起著重要作用。而電動(dòng)汽車用不到這種催化轉(zhuǎn)換裝置。據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》引述澳大利亞采礦公司South32的CEO格拉哈姆?科爾的話稱，隨著電池技術(shù)繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)新的進(jìn)步，有些原本“流行一時(shí)”的金屬，很有可能最終會(huì)落個(gè)靠邊站的命運(yùn)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Elon Musk’s quest for the mass-produced electric car isn’t only disrupting the traditional auto market—it’s shaking up the markets for the metals that go into cars too.

The trend is most evident in the market for lithium, which is used in the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles. Already, growing demand from the auto industry is starting to outrun supply. According to The Wall Street Journal, prices for lithium carbonate, an intermediate product in the refining of lithium, were up 47% from the average price in 2015 in the first quarter of this year. It cited figures from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a data provider, showing that prices for lithium rose 28% last year, in which time the Dow Jones Industrial Metals index and the Platinum and Precious Metals index both fell over 40%.

Given that pure EVs account for less than 1% of all vehicles on the world’s roads, the potential growth in demand for lithium is dizzying. The WSJ cites a Goldman Sachs report suggesting that demand could triple within 10 years to 570,000 tons a year. Musk said earlier this week that for Tesla to meet its target of 500,000 cars a year, “we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.”

And Tesla represents only a fraction of the likely demand growth. According to BMI, China will build twice as much new lithium-ion battery capacity as the U.S. by 2020. Tesla’s ‘Gigafactory 1’ in Nevada may be (comfortably) the biggest factory being built, but it is only one of at least 12 such projects across the world, BMI says.

Other metals that could also profit from evolution in the sector could be copper (EVs use four times as much as a conventional car) and aluminum—a material that companies are turning to to replace steel in order to cut overall weight and fuel consumption (think of Ford’s F-150, as well as the all-aluminum frame of Tesla’s Model S). At the same time, research house Industrial Minerals reckons that Tesla’s Gigafactory alone could need some 93,000 tons a year of flake graphite to make anodes for its batteries. That would be the equivalent of six new mines—a powerful incentive for industry to improve the inefficient methods that are the current industry standard (IM reckons up to 70% of raw graphite mined is wasted).

Lithium is relatively abundant in the earth’s crust but often hard to get to, and the technology needed to extract it can differ from one deposit to another. The world’s biggest resources, in Bolivia, would have to cross the Andes to reach the nearest seaport, or else face a long journey across South America to the Atlantic.

One would think that an almost completely new source of mineral demand ought to be met with enthusiasm in a mining sector that is in near-universal retreat at the moment. But the prospect of raising billions of dollars in capital for fresh projects at the same time as the industry is shuttering earlier ill-judged ventures—some of which were predicated on optimistic new paradigms ultimately based on guesswork regarding future Chinese demand—is daunting. And a number of independent miners have fallen prey to the usual cycle of hype and disappointment around such new dawns (to readFortune‘s story from last year on their troubles, clickhere).

Moreover, the displacement of the combustion engine by the lithium-ion battery has serious implications for the billions of dollars sunk into other mines that extract metals such as platinum and palladium, which end up in catalytic convertors to clean exhaust fumes. The WSJ quoted Graham Kerr, CEO of Australian mining company South32, as reluctant to invest in lithium, something that is “flavor of the month” but which could be rendered obsolete by other, as-yet unknown advances in battery technology.