國際空間站的建造成本高達(dá)1500多億美元，堪稱有史以來最昂貴的人造物體。其造價(jià)是中國三峽大壩、波士頓“大開挖”工程和英法海底隧道合計(jì)成本的兩倍多。不過，據(jù)CNN報(bào)道，到2020年代初期，國際空間站的資金來源可能就將耗盡。

就在國際空間站的資金即將告罄之際，中國卻有望在2020年代初期完成自己的空間站建設(shè)。屆時(shí)，這一亞洲強(qiáng)國將成為全球唯一一個(gè)擁有在軌空間實(shí)驗(yàn)室的國家。由于美國國會(huì)禁止美國宇航局與中國航天系統(tǒng)開展任何雙邊合作，我們目前尚不清楚美國宇航員的身影到時(shí)能否出現(xiàn)在中國空間站上。

軌道空間站僅僅是中國雄心勃勃的地外探索計(jì)劃的一部分。如今，航天戰(zhàn)略已經(jīng)成為中國地緣政治戰(zhàn)略中的重要一環(huán)。從最近的一系列動(dòng)作可以看出，中國的航天工程是動(dòng)真格的。

首先，中國的航天工程在過去幾年中已經(jīng)取得了大量成果。2013年，繼美國和蘇聯(lián)之后，中國成為第三個(gè)讓航空器在月球表面成功軟著陸的國家。2014年，中國成功發(fā)射并回收了一枚繞月探測器，這也是同類任務(wù)自上世紀(jì)70年代以來的首次成功。

然而，中國還有更宏大的計(jì)劃。比如，中國將在2018年向月球背面發(fā)射探測器——月球背面的奇特地貌大部分還未被探索過。它也將成為人類歷史上首顆在月球背面著陸的探測器。此外，中國還計(jì)劃帶回月球表面的土壤樣品，并派遣宇航員登陸月球表面。除月球以外，中國也有雄心勃勃的火星探索計(jì)劃。

中國到底想做什么？為什么要持續(xù)加大對航天領(lǐng)域的投入？為什么對探月工程如此感興趣？我認(rèn)為主要有以下幾個(gè)原因。

首先，在中國看來，太空是一項(xiàng)可能改變能源領(lǐng)域游戲規(guī)則的資源，特別是月球。月球擁有大量的氦3元素，這種輕質(zhì)的非放射性核聚變原料在地球上幾乎不存在，而月球表面沒有大氣層，又被含有氦3元素的太陽風(fēng)沖刷了幾十億年，它的氦3儲量極為可觀。據(jù)一些專家估算，月球表面的氦3儲量至少在110萬噸以上，足以滿足人類文明1萬年的能源需求。

作為全球能源需求增長最快的國家之一，中國充分認(rèn)識到，這種來自另一個(gè)星球的能源將成為一筆重大的戰(zhàn)略資產(chǎn)。有趣的是，美國硅谷也同樣覬覦月球的氦3資源。比如，谷歌的XPRIZE探月大獎(jiǎng)就拿出3000萬美元獎(jiǎng)金，鼓勵(lì)與探月有關(guān)的科研項(xiàng)目。

中國推動(dòng)太空探索的另一個(gè)目的是鼓勵(lì)科技研發(fā)。正如在蘇聯(lián)發(fā)射了第一顆人造衛(wèi)星之后，美國就隨之加大了對基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)和應(yīng)用科學(xué)的研究投入一樣，中國在探月工程上的科研投入，同樣也有一部分會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化為有益于現(xiàn)實(shí)生活的實(shí)用成果。中國探月工程首席科學(xué)家就曾表示，航天工程對于信息技術(shù)和材料科學(xué)的“溢出效應(yīng)”，也是推動(dòng)中國航天工程的一個(gè)重要?jiǎng)訖C(jī)。

同時(shí)，中國也敏銳地認(rèn)識到了太空對于軍事的重要性。美國國會(huì)2015年的一份報(bào)告指出，“航天實(shí)力的應(yīng)用，能夠促進(jìn)中國軍隊(duì)的遠(yuǎn)程打擊能力、精確制導(dǎo)能力和信息連通能力，進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)各兵種的有效融合。”該報(bào)告還聲稱，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認(rèn)為“太空戰(zhàn)是不可避免的”，因此中國必須主宰太空。值得注意的是，中國最近還進(jìn)行了反衛(wèi)星武器測試。

最后，中國在航天領(lǐng)域的成功，無疑將提振民族自豪感，支撐其高漲的民族主義情緒，有利于政府進(jìn)行愛國宣傳，對國內(nèi)起到凝聚人心的作用。事實(shí)上，中央軍委裝備發(fā)展部副部長張育林中將就曾用“中華民族的偉大復(fù)興”來形容航天戰(zhàn)略的重要意義。

從上萬億美元布局的“一帶一路”，到“南海造島”，中國在地緣政治領(lǐng)域的頻頻發(fā)力備受矚目。但我們同樣不能忽視中國正在外層空間展開的地緣政治角力。與近在眼前的問題一樣，忽視對外太空的開發(fā)也有可能給美國帶來不利的后果。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者Vikram Mansharamani 是耶魯大學(xué)倫理、政治與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專業(yè)講師。著有《經(jīng)濟(jì)興衰學(xué)：聚焦金融泡沫破裂前》(BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst)一書。

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

At a cost of more than $150 billion, the International Space Station (ISS) is the most expensive object ever built. This price tag is more than double thecombined costs of China’s Three Gorges Dam, Boston’s Big Dig, and theChunnel. But as noted by CNN, funding for the ISS may run out in the early 2020s.

That happens to be around the same time that the Chinese are expected to complete their own space station, potentially leaving the Asian power with the sole operating lab in the heavens. And given thatCongress banned NASA from working bilaterally with anyone from the Chinese space program, it’s unclear if American astronauts will be welcome.

The Chinese space station is merely one part of the Middle Kingdom’s extraterrestrial ambitions. Tinkering in the heavens has emerged as an important plank of its geopolitical strategy. And if recent history is any guide, the Chinese are serious about their plans in space.

To begin, their program has already accomplished a great deal over the past few years. In 2013, China became the third nation—after the United States and the Soviet Union—to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon. In 2014, the country also sent a probearound the moon and back, the first such mission since the 1970s.

But China has even grander plans. These include a 2018 mission to send the first probe in history to land on the “dark side” of the moon, whose extraordinary geology is largely unexplored. Other plans aim to bring back lunar samples as well as to land humans on the surface of the moon. The country has Martian ambitions as well.

What are the Chinese doing? Why the increased focus on space and specifically the moon? I see several reasons.

First, China views space as a potentially game-changing source of energy security. Specifically, the moon has abundant supplies of helium-3, a light and non-radioactive fusion fuel that is virtually non-existent here on Earth. Because it lacks an atmosphere and has been bombarded by solar winds containing helium-3 for billions of years, the moon has massive volumes of the isotope. Some estimates suggest there are at least 1.1 million metric tons of helium-3 on the lunar surface, enough to power human energy needs for up to 10,000 years.

With one of the fastest-growing appetites for energy on the planet, the Chinese are highly aware that securing access to this other-wordly fuel would be a hugestrategic advantage. Interestingly, Silicon Valley is also vying for the moon’s helium-3, spurred in part by the $30 million Google Lunar XPRIZE.

China is also pushing into the heavens to encourage technological developments. Just as America’s response to Sputnik fueled basic research and applied science, so might China channel its out-of-this-world ambitions into useful developments here on Earth. In fact, the chief scientist of China’s lunar exploration program cited the spillover benefits expected in information technology and materials science as a key motivator of the program.

The Chinese are also keenly aware of the military significance of space. A 2015 US congressionalreport explained how “for China’s military, the use of space power can facilitate long-range strikes, guide munitions with precision, improve connectivity, and lead to greater jointness across its armed forces.” The document described a Chinese leadership that thinks that “space warfare is inevitable” and that China must dominate it. It’s worth noting China’s recent testing of anti-satellite weapons.

Finally, there is no question that Chinese success in space will be a source of pride and support risingnationalism. It will give China bragging rights and have a unifying influence on the country. In fact, Lieutenant General Zhang Yulindiscussed his space ambitions in terms of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

As we focus on China’s terrestrial power plays, from its trillion dollar Silk Road to its construction ofartificial islands in the South China Sea, we must also watch the emerging geopolitics (“exopolitics”?) of outer space. Dismissing distant developments overhead may prove as detrimental, if not more so, than ignoring those in front of our noses.

Vikram Mansharamani is a Lecturer at Yale University in the Program on Ethics, Politics, & Economics. He is the author of BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst (Wiley, 2011). Visit his website for more information or to subscribe to his mailing list. He can also be followed onTwitter or by liking hisPage on Facebook.