經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱，中國一季度的增速創(chuàng)金融危機(jī)以來的新低。這表明，雖然中國經(jīng)濟(jì)近期出現(xiàn)了短期的企穩(wěn)跡象，但這一世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體仍面臨著下行壓力。

路透社最近對64名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的調(diào)查顯示，第一季度GDP增速也有可能降至6.7%，與去年同期持平，但低于2015年第四季度的6.8%。

這是2009年一季度以來最為疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。當(dāng)時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速跌到了6.2%。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在2015年增長了6.9%，創(chuàng)20多年以來的新低。

一季度的年增速預(yù)測范圍為5.8%到7.2%，中間值為6.7%。

充滿希望的跡象

盡管不均衡的全球需求正在下行，多個(gè)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了過度投資，且國有企業(yè)疲弱的生產(chǎn)效率仍不見起色，但近期房地產(chǎn)市場和工業(yè)的短暫抬頭為樂觀主義提供了一些依據(jù)。

1月和2月，固定資產(chǎn)投資年增速提升至10.2%，而2015年全年為10%。這兩個(gè)月的工業(yè)利潤出人意料地較去年同期增長了4.8%，結(jié)束了連續(xù)7個(gè)月的負(fù)增長。

在這兩個(gè)月中——中國將其數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了整合以應(yīng)對春節(jié)長假的日期調(diào)整——工業(yè)利潤出人意料地較去年同期增長了4.8%，結(jié)束了連續(xù)7個(gè)月的負(fù)增長。

近期其他的指標(biāo)，包括工廠采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)和中國生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)，也釋放出了一些經(jīng)濟(jì)初步企穩(wěn)的信號。

香港野村證券首席中國經(jīng)濟(jì)師Yang Zhao說：“第一季度，我們看到部分實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)在3月出現(xiàn)了企穩(wěn)跡象，而地產(chǎn)投資也在1、2月出現(xiàn)了反彈，因此這說明實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)似乎略有起色。”

他說：“但是，第一季度金融領(lǐng)域的貢獻(xiàn)，會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅倒退。這也是為什么我們認(rèn)為整個(gè)GDP將在去年第四季度的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)下滑的原因。”

分析師稱，盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了一些復(fù)蘇跡象，而且CPI也有所上漲，但央行有可能會(huì)為了實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣供應(yīng)和增長目標(biāo)來調(diào)整貨幣政策，同時(shí)幫助負(fù)債累累的工業(yè)企業(yè)為其昂貴的債務(wù)再融資。

香港渣打銀行大中華地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究負(fù)責(zé)人Ding Shuang說：“CPI增幅已經(jīng)超過了一年期存款利率，這意味著減息空間受到了限制。”

他說：“然而，銀行要求繼續(xù)降低儲備金比率，因?yàn)檫@與今年實(shí)現(xiàn)13%的貨幣供應(yīng)增長目標(biāo)息息相關(guān)。”

自2014年年底以來，中國的銀行一直在奉行長期的寬松政策，并于最近通過2月29日的準(zhǔn)備金比例下調(diào)釋放了約1000億美元的貸款。決策者們也已表示，他們打算在2016年增加對經(jīng)濟(jì)的財(cái)政支持，并將財(cái)政赤字調(diào)高至GDP的3%。

月度指標(biāo)

中國于4月15日公布一系列月度指標(biāo)和GDP數(shù)據(jù)，分析師們則將尋找短期經(jīng)濟(jì)改善的其他證據(jù)。

工業(yè)產(chǎn)值3月的同比增長可能會(huì)達(dá)到5.9%，較2月的5.4%略有上升，而中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵引擎——城市固定資產(chǎn)投資——有可能在一季度達(dá)到10.3%的整體增幅，而1月和2月均為10.2%。

3月，零售額年度同比增長為10.4%，較2月的10.2%有小幅攀升。

譯者：馮豐

審校：詹妮

Economists say that China grew at its slowest pace since the financial crisis in the first quarter, highlighting continued downward pressure on the world’s second largest economy despite some tentative recent signs of stabilization.

Growth in first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) likely slowed to 6.7% from the same period last year, down from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to a Reuters poll of 64 economists.

That would be the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when growth fell to 6.2%. China’s economy grew 6.9% in 2015, its slowest rate in more than two decades.

Forecasts for annual growth in the first quarter ranged from 5.8% to 7.2%, with a median of 6.7%.

Hopeful Signs

While downdrafts from uneven global demand, over-investment in several key sectors and weakening productivity among state-owned firms remain, recent signs of a tentative pick-up in real estate and industry provide some reasons for optimism.

Annual growth in fixed asset investment quickened to 10.2% in January and February combined from 10% in the whole of 2015, while industrial profits during those two months unexpectedly rose by 4.8% from a year earlier, ending a seven-month streak of declines.

During those two months—China combined their data to account for the shifting dates for the long Lunar New Year holiday—industrial profits unexpectedly rose by 4.8% from a year earlier, ending a seven-month streak of declines.

Other recent indicators including factory purchasing managers’ indexes and China’s producer price index have also hinted at some initial signs of stabilization.

“In Q1, we saw some stabilization in March for the real part of the economy, and property investment also rebounded in January and February, so it shows that the hard core activity seems to have slightly picked up,” said Yang Zhao, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

“But in terms of the contribution of financial sector in Q1, it’s going to have significantly retreated. That’s why we think the overall GDP will continue to slow down from the last Q4,” he said.

Analysts said that despite some signs of green shoots and an uptick in consumer price inflation (CPI), the central bank was likely to keep monetary policy accommodative to hit money supply and growth targets, and aid heavily indebted industrial firms to refinance expensive debt.

“CPI inflation is already higher than the one-year deposit rate, meaning the room for additional rate cuts is limited,” said Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

“But bank required reserve ratio cuts will continue as they will be necessary to achieve the 13% money supply growth target this year,” he said.

China’s bank has been engaged in an extended easing campaign since late 2014, most recently releasing an estimated $100 billion for lending by cutting bank reserve ratios on Feb. 29. Policymakers have also said they intend to ramp up fiscal support for the economy in 2016, boosting the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP.

Monthly Indicators

A raft of monthly indicators were released with the GDP data on April 15, and analysts are looking for additional evidence of tentative economic improvement.

Industrial output likely grew 5.9% in March from a year earlier, slightly up from February’s 5.4% figure while urban fixed asset investment, a crucial driver of China’s economy, likely accelerated to 10.3% in the first quarter as a whole, from 10.2% in January and February.

Annual retail sales growth was seen at 10.4% in March, rising slightly from the previous month’s 10.2%.