盡管iPhone銷量疲軟令很多人感到擔(dān)心，但蘋果仍然保持著全美股市最有價(jià)值公司的地位。

不過(guò)在瑞銀分析師史蒂夫?米倫諾維奇看來(lái)，蘋果公司面臨著三個(gè)有可能“改變游戲格局”的重大威脅，它們甚至有可能將蘋果掀下全球最盈利公司的寶座。這三大威脅可以簡(jiǎn)稱為“3C”，分別是中國(guó)（China）、聊天機(jī)器人（chat bots）和廉價(jià)手機(jī)（cheap phones）。

“當(dāng)前圍繞蘋果的主要爭(zhēng)議是，iPhone的升級(jí)基本上只是著眼于添加一些邊緣性的新功能，并且拉長(zhǎng)升級(jí)周期。”米倫諾維奇在周三的一份簡(jiǎn)短的報(bào)告中寫道：“可以說(shuō)這是一個(gè)高級(jí)問(wèn)題，因?yàn)閱?wèn)題的重點(diǎn)在于升級(jí)的時(shí)間，而不是來(lái)自蘋果生態(tài)系統(tǒng)以外的挑戰(zhàn)。”

據(jù)分析師們預(yù)測(cè)，今年iPhone手機(jī)的銷量可能遜于去年的2.31億臺(tái)。而像蘋果手表和蘋果電視這樣的新產(chǎn)品目前的銷量還不能算是徹底打開(kāi)了局面。

米倫諾維奇認(rèn)為，除了iPhone銷量疲軟，蘋果公司還面臨著更為嚴(yán)重的三大威脅，其中以中國(guó)居首。過(guò)去幾年，蘋果之所以實(shí)現(xiàn)了令人瞠目的迅猛增長(zhǎng)，一個(gè)重要因素是中國(guó)最大的移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商——中國(guó)移動(dòng)終于同意銷售iPhone。

米倫諾維奇指出：“在企業(yè)計(jì)算領(lǐng)域，隨著聯(lián)想和華為等中國(guó)國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌的成熟，IBM、惠普和思科等國(guó)際品牌在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上的銷量遭遇了下滑。如果中國(guó)政府在手機(jī)領(lǐng)域也同樣偏向國(guó)產(chǎn)供應(yīng)商，就有可能給蘋果造成嚴(yán)重威脅。”

第二大威脅則是聊天機(jī)器人對(duì)蘋果應(yīng)用商店業(yè)務(wù)的挑戰(zhàn)。在Facebook的聊天機(jī)器人本周正式發(fā)布后，這一技術(shù)立即成為人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，風(fēng)頭一時(shí)無(wú)兩。要知道，市值高達(dá)500億美元的Facebook在替蘋果拉攏和保留用戶方面也扮演了極為重要的角色。目前像FB這樣的即時(shí)通訊應(yīng)用正在逐漸包含所謂的“機(jī)器人應(yīng)用”的功能。也就是說(shuō)，它充當(dāng)了一個(gè)自動(dòng)化的數(shù)字助手，能夠幫你摘取信息、完成電子交易，甚至預(yù)訂出租車等等。

米倫諾維奇表示：“目前這種所謂的‘機(jī)器人’程序，也就是用來(lái)將任務(wù)自動(dòng)化的軟件程序，主要寄居在即時(shí)通訊軟件里（也就是‘應(yīng)用內(nèi)應(yīng)用’）。Facebook還剛剛發(fā)布了能讓企業(yè)與消費(fèi)者進(jìn)行互動(dòng)的聊天機(jī)器人平臺(tái)Messenger Bot Store。那么，蘋果的App Store會(huì)因此損失份額嗎？”

第三大威脅，則是人們?cè)缇皖A(yù)測(cè)過(guò)，但到目前為止還從未實(shí)現(xiàn)過(guò)的“黑童話”——消費(fèi)者將放棄對(duì)蘋果的忠心，轉(zhuǎn)投已經(jīng)變得“足夠好”的廉價(jià)機(jī)海。

米倫諾維奇也提到了廉價(jià)手機(jī)的威脅，但他似乎并不非常擔(dān)心這一幕會(huì)真的發(fā)生。

“也有一些相反的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，蘋果的銷售對(duì)象主要是具有品牌意識(shí)的消費(fèi)者，而不是企業(yè)。而且蘋果也通過(guò)產(chǎn)品整合和品牌的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)建設(shè)保持了充分的差異化。即便考慮到了計(jì)算硬件商品化的歷史，仍然有一些看好蘋果的人認(rèn)為，蘋果是歷史的一個(gè)例外。”

本周三上午，蘋果股價(jià)上浮了1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。年初至今，蘋果股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了6%，高于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的2%的漲幅。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Apple remains the most valuable company on the stock market despite concerns about slowing iPhone sales.

But UBS analyst Steven Milunovich sees three far more serious issues on the horizon that could actually “change the game” and take the world’s most profitable company down. Call it the three C’s of the apocalypse: China, chat bots and cheap phones.

“The main Apple debate today is about iPhone upgrades based on marginal new features and lengthening of the upgrade cycle,” Milunovich wrote in a short report on Wednesday. “This is a high-class problem in that the issue is timing of upgrades rather than challenges from outside the ecosystem.”

Analysts expect Apple’s iPhone sales will drop somewhat below the 231 million devices it sold last year and newer products like the Apple Watch and Apple TV have yet to gain enough sales to make up the difference.

But the more important issues for Applestart with China, according to Milunovich. Apple’s astounding growth the past few years was fueled by growth in China after the country’s largest mobile carrier, China Mobile, finally agreed to sell the iPhone.

“A more serious issue would be if the government were to favor domestic suppliers as we have seen in enterprise computing,” Milunovich writes. “IBM, HP, and Cisco have suffered declining sales in China as domestic champions like Lenovo and Huawei mature.”

The second issue, hitting maximum hype currently thanks to Facebook’s announcements this week, is the danger of chat bots to Apple’s app store business. The $50 billion business has been critical in helping Apple attract and retain iPhone customers, Milunovich said. But messaging apps are increasingly incorporating the functions of apps via so-called bots, automated digital helpers that can pull up information, complete commerce transactions, and order a taxi.

“Bots—software that automates tasks—mostly reside in messaging apps (apps within apps),” the analyst noted. “Facebook just announced the Messenger Bot Store, a bot platform that allows businesses to interact with consumers. Could the App Store lose share?”

Finally, the Apple boogeyman that has long been predicted and never come to pass—the threat that consumers will drop their allegiance to the iPhone and switch to cheap smartphones that have become “good enough.”

Milunovich mentions the cheap phone threat, though he sounds less than convinced it is about to come to pass.

“Counter arguments are that Apple sells to brand-conscious consumers rather than to businesses and it has maintained sufficient differentiation through product integration and the ecosystem,” he writes. “Still, given the history of hardware commoditization, bulls are taking the position that Apple is an exception to history.”

Shares of Apple were up 1% on Wednesday morning. The shares have gained 6% so far this year, outpacing the 2% rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.