初步數據稱日本出現了五年來的第四次經濟衰退，但最近公布的調整后數字完全打消了這種擔心。其實不用看調整后的數字也能知道，日本經濟不太可能出現滑坡了，因為就業率很高，酒店生意紅火，商場超市的消費都很旺盛。

初步數據顯示，2015年第二季度出現滑坡后，日本經濟在第三季度再次下降0.8%，而通常來說衰退的定義就是連續兩個季度出現負增長。不過，最終數據表明，三季度日本經濟不僅并未下降，反而增長了1%。

雖然中國經濟放緩影響了日本的出口，工資增長也緩慢，但作為全球第三大經濟體，日本并沒有一蹶不振。

首先，就業市場相當景氣，失業率只有3.1%，處于20年來的低點。

酒店入住率也很高。豐田總部所在地、日本中部城市名古屋近期的酒店平均入住率為90%。

名古屋商工會議所副會長內藤弘康說：“每當有大型會議召開，酒店就會預訂一空。近來不少高層建筑紛紛投入建設，其中都有酒店建設規劃。”

“建筑工人、保安和卡車司機都不夠用。一些相關行業的工資正在上升。”

從目前情況來看，兼職人員在就業和薪酬兩方面均受益最多。2013年4月日本央行推出大規模經濟刺激措施以來，兼職人員的工資已經上升了3.8%。

這帶動了居民收入穩步增長，進而促進了消費。

10月份，由于消費者對首飾和奢侈品的需求旺盛，日本百貨店銷售額連續第四個月上升。伊勢丹三越控股等百貨商場因此上調了截至2016年3月份的財年業績預期。

截至10月，本財年日本整體零售額同比上升1.8%，超市銷售額連續第七個月實現增長。

在東京商業區，一位衣著入時、正在等朋友吃飯的女士說：“我覺得經濟正在變好。經濟好的時候我往往會更敢花錢。”

而且，感受到經濟好轉的不僅是大城市。在日本西部城市廣島，中型超市泉屋百貨就沒感受到經濟衰退的寒意。

該公司發言人后藤郁夫說：“高檔產品很暢銷，比如我們貨架上擺的頂級‘和牛肉’。”

資本支出同樣顯示出活力。日本政府的調查顯示，2015年第三季度投資增速達到了八年多以來的最高點。

實際上，三季度調整后經濟數據之所以“變臉”，從初步估算的下降1.3%變為上升0.6%，很大程度上都是因為資本支出。

盡管擔心中國需求可能疲軟，但在路透社的采訪中，80%的公司都表示下半財年的開支計劃不會變。

一些分析師指出，日本的經濟周期變短了，原因是公司隨著需求的波動調整庫存的速度變快了，也就是說，經濟趨向更頻繁出現滑坡，但下跌幅度相當小，持續時間也很短。

第一生命研究所首席經濟學家熊野英生因此認為，政府應該把眼光放得更長遠一些，而不是疲于應付短期波動。

他說：“政府真正應該做的是采取措施來提高日本的增長潛力。”

不過，日本勞動力人口不斷下降的長期結構性問題還是沒法迅速解決。

一些日本公司已經開始未雨綢繆，不再把所有的雞蛋都放在日本本土這個籃子里，其中就包括制造日本傳統毛筆和刷子的白鳳堂。

白鳳堂社長高本和男表示，目前其產品在日本非常熱銷，但今年5月份開工新工廠時，公司已經展望得更遠。

他說：“新工廠主要是為了提升產量以滿足國外的需求……來自亞洲其他地區以及中東的需求都有望增長。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Even before Tuesday’s revised figures banished what preliminary data said was Japan’s fourth recession in five years, it was an unlikely downturn, complete with high employment, heaving hotels and tinkling cash tills.

After the economy shrank in the second quarter, preliminary figures for a 0.8% contraction in the third quarter fitted the definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth—but final figures for the July-September period put the economy back on the front foot with growth of 1%.

Though exports have taken a hit from China’s slowdown, and wage growth is lackluster, the world’s third-largest economy hadn’t been behaving like it was on the ropes.

The labor market is near full employment, with just 3.1% out of work, the lowest level in two decades.

Hotel occupancy rates are also high. They recently averaged 90% in Nagoya, the central Japanese city that carmaker Toyota calls home.

“When there’s a big conference, hotel rooms become fully booked. We’re seeing a construction rush of high-rise buildings with plans to build some new hotels,” said Hiroyasu Naito, deputy chairman of Nagoya’s chamber of commerce.

“There’s a shortage of construction workers, security guards and truck drivers. In some sectors, we’re seeing wages rise.”

For now at least, it is part-time workers who are seeing most of the benefit, both in hiring and pay. Part-time pay has jumped 3.8% since the Bank of Japan adopted a massive stimulus program in April 2013.

That is leading to a steady gain in household income, which is working its way into spending.

Department store sales rose for the fourth straight month in October on brisk demand for jewelry and luxury goods, helping operators like Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings revise up its earnings forecasts for the year to March 2016.

Overall retail sales rose 1.8% in the year to October, with supermarket sales up for the seventh straight month.

“I think the economy is getting better,” said a smartly dressed woman waiting for a dinner partner in Tokyo’s business district. “When the economy gets better, I tend to spend more.”

And it’s not just a big-city phenomenon.Izumi, a midsize supermarket operator in Hiroshima, western Japan, is also not feeling the pinch of recession.

“High-end products are selling well, such as the most premium ‘wagyu’ beef sold on our shelves,” said spokesman Ikuo Goto.

Capital expenditure is showing signs of life, too, with a government survey finding investment rose at the fastest pace in more than eight years in the third quarter.

Indeed, capital expenditure accounted for much of the swing in the revised third-quarter figures, flipping from a 1.3% preliminary drop to a 0.6% rise.

Despite concerns over soft Chinese demand, 80% of firms polled by Reuters said they were sticking to their spending plans for the second half of the fiscal year.

Some analysts say Japan’s economic cycle has become shorter as companies adjust inventory more quickly to fluctuations in demand, which means the economy tends to contract more frequently but the downturns are fairly shallow and short-lived.

So instead of responding to these short-term fluctuations, the government ought to take a longer view, says Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“What the government really needs to do is to implement steps to strengthen Japan’s potential growth,” he said.

But there is no quick fix for the long-term structural problem of Japan’s dwindling working-age population.

So when companies like Hakuhodo, which produces brushes for traditional Japanese calligraphy and for make-up, think ahead, they aren’t putting all their eggs in the Japanese basket.

For now, Hakuhodo’s general manager Ko Takamoto says domestic sales are very strong, but the company has wider horizons for the plant it opened in May.

“Our new plant is aimed at boosting production to meet overseas demand…We see growth prospects in Asia and the Middle East,” he said.