盡管社交媒體行業在2015年獲得長足進步，但在2016年，我們有望見證新技術徹底改變人們與社交媒體的互動方式。社交購物將日益普及。各大社交網絡將加速演變成“無所不包的平臺”。簡言之，社交媒體將更加深入地融入我們日常生活和工作的方方面面。

對于社交媒體行業來說，這是值得紀念的一年。2015年見證了社交流媒體直播服務的誕生，Periscope和Meerkat等應用初戰告捷，已經贏得了不少早期采用者。Snapchat也終于擺脫了小眾網站的名聲，目前已擁有超過2億名活躍用戶。與此同時，視頻服務也在各大社交網絡上發展得風生水起，Facebook用戶的每日視頻點擊量達到80億次（根據某些數據統計，甚至超過了YouTube）。

那么，在2016年，社交媒體行業又將出現哪些趨勢？新技術有望徹底改變我們與社交媒體的互動方式，購物等新功能將相繼開放，我們還可以通過社交網絡分享更加實時、更加生動的體驗。但新功能的不斷涌現，加上“社交”范疇的不斷擴大，也可能導致一些用戶跟不上形勢?，F在就讓我們預測一下2016年社交媒體領域的五大趨勢。

虛擬現實登陸社交媒體：2014年3月Facebook斥資20億美金收購了虛擬現實公司Oculus之后，其 CEO馬克?扎克伯格曾寫道：“想象一下，你不僅可以在網絡與朋友分享一些時刻，還能分享整個體驗和經歷。”現在，我們不需要繼續想象這種服務的體驗了。Facebook已經開始將Oculus技術應用到它的360 Video服務中。這些通過新聞推送功能發布的獨特視頻，可以使用戶從不同的角度產生更加沉浸式的體驗（不管你從上下左右哪個角度看，也不管是在網頁上還是在移動設備上）。

Vice和迪士尼頻道已相繼推出360度全景視頻節目。此外，好萊塢巨制《星球大戰：原力覺醒》也推出了一個相當酷的360度全景視頻宣傳片。隨著發行商和各大品牌紛紛跟進這項技術，并創造新的內容，我們有望在2016年看到更多沉浸式的視頻。作為一種完全沉浸式的虛擬現實技術，Oculus公司的Rift頭盔即將在2016年年初上市，屆時將為Facebook的推送帶來更加有趣的可能性。Oculus已經推出一款名叫Oculus Social Alpha，可用于三星Gear VR頭盔的觀影應用。它可以讓你“坐”在影院，與其他用戶同時觀看一段視頻——這可能是Facebook新技術帶來的第一款真正的社交應用。

社交購物將廣泛普及：過去一年中，Twitter、Facebook、Instagram和Pinterest等主流社交網絡都推出或升級了應用內置的“購買”功能，使用戶可以在應用內直接購買衣服、工藝品和其他一些小玩意兒。從很多方面看，這個功能可謂姍姍來遲。人們早就開始在社交網站上發現和討論產品了，有五分之四的人表示朋友發的帖子會直接影響他們的購買決定。在中國、韓國等國家，社交頻道也早就整合了電商功能。

到目前為止，社交購物功能在北美地區最大的絆腿石就是易用性。要想在社交媒體上購物，我們必須先點擊其他網站（這在智能手機上總是個問題），或者用戶只能面臨非常有限的選擇（比如已經停用的Facebook Gifts）。但現在，諸如Pinterest的Buyable Pins等功能已經可以讓用戶瀏覽產品的顏色和款式，然后在應用內直接付款，整個過程都不需要離開社交平臺。2016年，各大社交網站將有望不再繼續充當“電商中轉站”的角色，而是升級為用戶直接購物的平臺。

Facebook Live將使流媒體直播成為主流：2015年，一批流媒體直播應用的誕生給人們帶來了不小的驚喜，它們使用戶可以對粉絲進行視頻直播。到2015年夏末，Twitter旗下的Periscope公司已擁有1000萬名活躍用戶，本月還被蘋果評為2015年最佳iOS應用。

Facebook 2016年也將推出自己的移動流媒體直播功能，該功能目前一般被稱為“Facebook Live”。屆時，流媒體直播或將贏得主流用戶的青睞。這項功能可以使用戶通過Facebook平臺與好友分享直播視頻。目前Facebook Live正在美國的少數iOS用戶間進行內測。最關鍵的是，你無需下載一個單獨的應用，也不必離開Facebook應用界面，就能直接使用這個新功能。如果Facebook Live按照預期推出，它不僅有望主宰流媒體直播領域，更有望徹底改變Facebook與15億用戶之間的互動方式。

職場一族的社交媒體技能差距進一步加大：隨著Slack（其同時登錄用戶人數已經超過100萬），以及即將推出的Facebook at Work等職場社交網絡呈現井噴之勢，在辦公室使用社交網絡已經從一種禁忌變成一項必備技能。企業紛紛引入社交工具來來優化內部通訊，幫助銷售員工接觸客戶，當然也用于營銷和廣告。但一些員工并不適應這一挑戰。《哈佛商業評論》對2100家公司進行的一項調查顯示，在使用職場社交媒體的企業中，只有12%的企業覺得自己在有效使用社交媒體。就連和社交媒體一起長大的千禧一代似乎也達不到要求。雪域大學社交媒體教授威廉?沃德解釋道：“就算一個人從小時候就使用社交媒體，這并不代表他就會成為在工作中使用社交媒體的專家。”

社交媒體技能差距的惡果，體現在許多方面。比如，在社交媒體上出丑的企業越來越多，一些企業用錯了標簽，一些企業預先計劃好發布時間的帖子出了岔子，更不用說企業效率和商業價值的下降導致的幾萬億美元損失了（你沒看錯，就是幾萬億）。2016年，我們有望看到一些企業為彌補這些技能差距而著手開展社交媒體技能培訓——就好像當年的微軟Office套件和后來的電子郵件剛剛成為企業的重要工具時一樣。很多職場社交媒體已經開始提供在線自學課程，以及專門為職場設計的視頻教程。（比如Hootsuite公司就在免費提供課程。）

社交媒體客服質量顯著提升：社交媒體客戶服務似乎一直都是個很好的創意。如果發個微博就能很快獲得回復，為什么還要排隊打熱線電話呢？但現實卻是另一番情景。最近一份針對500家頂級零售企業的研究顯示，在這些企業中，通過Twitter回答消費者問題的企業只有20%，通過Facebook回答問題的企業也只有54%，其平均回應時間長達27至31個小時不等！更不用指望所有問題都能在一個公共論壇上得到解決了。

幸運的是，變革的曙光已經照在了地平線上。2015年下半年，Twitter和Facebook都顯著加強了各自的客戶服務功能。Twitter取消了發送私密消息必須首先“相互關注”的要求，意味著企業和消費者現在可以直接進行私密交流了。與此同時，Twitter也取消了私密消息的140字限制，所以私密消息已經成為一對一地解決消費者問題的一個很好的渠道。Facebook也不甘示弱地推出了Messenger Business功能的內測版本，使企業可以通過私聊渠道與消費者進行實時的私密互動?？紤]到Messenger已經擁有了8億用戶，不難預見，2016年它將成為一個相當普及的移動友好型客服渠道。

社交媒體領域最大的變化或許就是，各大社交網絡將加速演變成“無所不包的平臺”。Twitter不僅僅局限于取消140個字限制，還在一對一私信、視頻分享、客戶服務等方面全面發力。Facebook也不止是要把你與好友們聯系起來，它現在已經成為（或即將成為）一個職場效率工具，一個視頻分享和流媒體平臺，一家自由購物的電商。LinkedIn、Instagram、Pinterest和Snapchat等社交網站，也在進行類似的轉型。社交媒體已經不再是人們從事日常溝通的一個孤立媒介，它還成為一切人類活動的一個自然的組成部分。這個趨勢還沒有出現任何減緩的跡象。(財富中文網)

本文作者Ryan Holmes是Hootsuite公司的CEO。

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

It’s been a memorable year in social media. 2015 saw the birth of live social streaming, with apps like Periscope and Meerkat winning over early adopters. Snapchat fully shed its reputation as a niche network and now counts more than 200 million active users. Meanwhile, video dominated social headlines, with Facebook fb users now logging an estimated 8 billion video views a day(even more than on YouTube, by some counts).

What does 2016 hold for social media users? Expect to see new technologies fundamentally change how we interact with social media, opening up new options like shopping and enabling us to share ever-more vivid, real-time experiences. But new functionality and the widening universe of social options also threaten to leave some users in the dust. Here’s a peek into the crystal ball at five trends that will change how we use social media in 2016:

Virtual reality comes to social media: “Imagine sharing not just moments with your friends online, but entire experiences and adventures.” That’s whatMark Zuckerberg wrote after Facebook acquired Oculus, the virtual reality company, for $2 billion back in March 2014. Well, we won’t have to imagine much longer. Facebook has already begun incorporating Oculus technology into its360 Video. The unique videos, which have rolled out on News Feeds, allow users to experience scenes from different angles (looking right, left, up, down, etc.), on both web and mobile devices, creating a more immersive experience.

Right now, there’s 360 Video available from the likes of Vice and The Disney Channel and a really cool clip from Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Expect to see more immersive videos in 2016 as publishers and even brands catch up with the technology and begin creating more content. As for true, fully immersive VR, the consumer version of the Oculus Rift headset is slated for release in early 2016, opening up even more interesting possibilities for our News Feeds. Meanwhile, Oculus VR has already released a new “social” app called Oculus Social Alpha, for use with the Samsung Gear VR headset. The virtual movie-watching app allows you to “sit” in a theater and watch a video in real-time with other users – perhaps the first truly social application of Facebook’s new technology.

Social shopping takes off: Over the last year, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Pinterest all unveiled or upgraded in-line buy buttons, which allow users to purchase clothes, crafts, gadgets and more without ever leaving their feeds. In many respects, this development is long overdue. We’re already discovering and talking about products on social media, and four out of five people say that posts from friends directly influence buying decisions. Plus, overseas in China, Korea and elsewhere, social channels have long incorporated ecommerce functionality.

So far, the primary stumbling block in North America has been ease of use. To buy on social media, we’ve had to click out to other sites (always problematic on smartphones) or we’ve been offered limited selection (a la the now defunct Facebook Gifts). But innovations like Pinterest’s Buyable Pinsnow let users browse color and style options and pay, all without leaving the platform. In 2016, expect to see networks’ role shift from being channels whose primary function in ecommerce is providing referral traffic to being platforms where users make purchases directly.

Facebook Live takes live streaming mainstream: 2015 started off with lots of excitement about the new crop of live streaming apps, which allow users to broadcast live video to their followings. By late summer, Twitter-owned Periscope already boasted10 million active users, and just this month it was named by Apple the best iOS app of 2015.

Expect to see live streaming reach a whole new, mainstream audience in the year ahead as Facebook rolls out its own mobile streaming functionality, generally referred to as Facebook Live. Already being beta-tested among a small number of U.S. iOS users, the feature allows for instantly sharing live video using the Facebook platform. What’s key here is that you don’t have to download a special app or leave Facebook to use the new video functionality. If Facebook Live rolls out as expected, it’s likely to not only dominate other live streaming options but also to fundamentally change the way Facebook’s 1.5 billion users engage with the platform.

The social media skills gap at work widens: With the explosion of workplace social networks like Slack (which recently saw more than 1 million userslogged in at the same time) and the imminent launch of Facebook at Work, using social media in the office has gone from taboo to a requirement. Businesses are incorporating social tools to streamline internal communications, to help sales staff reach customers, and, of course, for marketing and advertising. The problem is that front-line employees aren’t up to the challenge. Among 2,100 companies surveyed by Harvard Business Review, just 12% of those using social media feel they use it effectively. Even millennials brought up on social media are falling short: “Because somebody grows up being a social media native, it doesn’t make them an expert in using social media at work,” explains William Ward, professor of social media at Syracuse University.

The consequence of this social media skills gap can be seen in mounting corporate social media gaffes, from misused hashtags (see #WhyIStayed) to scheduled posts gone awry, not to mention trillions of dollars (yes, trillions) in lost productivity and business value. In 2016, expect to see social media training finally begin to make its way into the workplace in an effort to close this gap – similar to initiatives launched when office software suites and later email and the Internet itself emerged as critical business tools. A number of online offerings now provide self-paced lessons and video modules designed for the workplace. (Hootsuite is giving our course away free.)

Social media customer service gets a lot better:Customer service on social media has always seemed like a great idea. Why wait on the phone when you can Tweet and get an answer immediately? But the reality has been quite different. A new study of 500 top retailers shows that only 20% answer questions sent via Twitter and 54% respond via Facebook. And the average response time ranges from 27-31 hours! Not to mention that not all customer service problems lend themselves to being handled out in the open in a public forum.

Fortunately, change is on the horizon. In the latter part of 2015, both Twitter and Facebooksignificantly upped their customer service functionality. Twitter ditched the “mutual follow” requirement for its DM (Direct Messages) feature, meaning companies and customers can now contact each other directly and privately. At the same time, it lifted the standard 140-character limit for Direct Messages, so DM now makes a great one-on-one channel for tackling customer issues. Facebook, not to be outdone, has launched a beta version of Messenger Business, offering a new chat-based avenue for companies to have real-time, personal conversations with customers. Considering that Messenger has more than 800 million users, it’s not hard to see it evolving into a ubiquitous, mobile-friendly channel for customer service in the years ahead.

Perhaps the biggest change in social media is the accelerated evolution of networks into “everything platforms.” Twitter isn’t just for blasting out 140-character updates anymore: It’s for one-on-one messaging, video-sharing, customer service and more. Facebook isn’t just about connecting with friends: It’s now (or soon to be) a workplace productivity tool, a video sharing and streaming platform, a place to shop, etc. Similar transformations can be seen across LinkedIn, Instagram, Pinterest and Snapchat, among other networks. Social media has become less a discrete thing that people do than a natural component of everything they do. And that trend shows no signs of slowing.

Ryan Holmes is CEO of Hootsuite.