從收入、盈利、資產、現金流、利潤空間和增長這些基本數據來看，蘋果公司在過去一年的表現十分出色。

然而，這家全球市值最高的公司2015年末的股價比年初下跌了4%，較52周以來的最高點下跌了近22%。

為什么股價與業績表現不一致？

在我的專欄留言區，一位名叫梅凱爾的讀者說出了許多郁悶的蘋果股東的心聲。他把這種現象歸結為六大原因：

過多的期權活動。機構對銀行不再把樂透彩票（期權）賣給每周的投機者感到滿意。2015年，約有90%的蘋果期權失效過期。這種模式如此可靠，以至于成為預測股價走向的法寶。謝天謝地，期權活動已經開始減弱，這給蘋果的股東帶來了希望。至少在拉斯維加斯，每個人都可能輸掉自己的衣服，而押注蘋果的人則可能輸得只剩褲頭。

新聞業糟糕的商業模式。與蘋果相關的誘人新聞標題比比皆是，而且大部分都是負面的。不要低估廣告費的作用，它是許多蘋果負面消息的來源。

CNBC。散戶常常聽到恐懼、不確定和懷疑的消息。我認為，CNBC財經頻道是要負責任的：他們有超過40位蘋果分析師。在那些還沒被炒魷魚的分析師中，大多數人認為蘋果股價會漲到遠高于目前股價的水平，但CNBC的觀眾永遠不會知道這種觀點，因為在CNBC看來，所謂的“平衡”報道就是給看漲蘋果和看跌蘋果的言論同樣的報道時間。這可不是真正的平衡報道。如果CNBC報道人類登月，他們也絕對會本著“平衡報道”的精神，找一位聲稱這是騙局的人。

無知。普通的散戶不會從健身課上學到市盈率的概念。他們非常信賴CNBC那些名嘴的分析，而許多分析師主要是依靠“渠道監控”的方式來預測蘋果iPhone的銷量——盡管蘋果CEO蒂姆?庫克已經警告稱，供應商的數據往往不靠譜。

華爾街目光短淺。目前，華爾街相信微軟的前景比蘋果好三倍（根據相關的市盈率）。在這個星球上，誰能捍衛這種結論？微軟在移動領域已經失敗，正在免費增速Windows操作系統，而新版Office也早就失去了意義。被微軟寄予厚望的云業務領域正在演變為一場惡性競爭，我也討厭拿他們的云產品與亞馬遜云服務相比，因為亞馬遜沒必要靠這項業務賺錢。

認知錯誤。蘋果的iPhone業務取得了驚人的成功。不過華爾街卻不看好它未來的表現。蘋果iPhone目前在全球的市場占有率約為14%。正如科技專欄作家丹尼爾?埃蘭?迪爾格所說，谷歌安卓只是在為蘋果培養新用戶。就算蘋果過度依賴iPhone，但這跟銷售咖啡的星巴克，銷售飛機的波音，銷售汽車的通用汽車等等（這份名單很長）有什么區別。現在，所有人都買了最新款的智能手機嗎？所有人都買了最新款的汽車嗎？智能手機的更新周期足以讓汽車業羨慕，在汽車業，超過20個品牌在爭奪一位顧客。與之相反，蘋果現在處于前所未有的強勢地位，而他們的競爭對手前所未有地弱。但是，一些汽車制造商的市盈率卻高于蘋果。可見幻想故事在股市里更有市場。

梅凱爾總結道：“以上任何一條原因都證明，股市極端低效。所有這些原因綜合起來，導致蘋果股價低到愚蠢的水平。”（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

Judging by the fundamentals—things like revenue, earnings, assets, cash flow, profit margins, and growth—Apple had a very good year.

However shares in the world’s most valuable company finished 2015 down 4% from the beginning of the year and off nearly 22% from their 52-week high.

Why the disconnect?

In my comment stream yesterday, a longtime reader who calls himself Merckel spoke for many frustrated shareholders when he boiled it down to six reasons:

Heavy option activity. Institutions are content with making bank off of selling lotto tickets (options) to weekly gamblers. Approximately 90% of all Appleoptions expired worthless in 2015. The pattern is so reliable that it acts as a talisman for stock direction. Thankfully, the option activity is beginning to moderate, which is promising for Apple shareholders. At least in Las Vegas, one knows the odds of losing one’s shirt; Apple gamblers are reduced to wearing only their shorts.

Journalism’s broken business model. Clickbait headlines about Apple dominate and are mostly negative. Do not underestimate the power of advertising dollars as the root of much of Apple’s negative press.

CNBC. Retail investors are served a regular diet of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (see above). I give business news network CNBC its own slot for good reason: There are more than 40 analysts covering Apple. Most of those still working (heh) are bullish and have price targets well above today’s stock price, though a viewer of CNBC would never know it because the network’s version of “balance” is to give equal time to Apple bulls and Apple bears. That’s not balanced reporting. If CNBC covered man’s landing on the moon, they would no doubt find someone who claimed a hoax for “equal time.”

Ignorance. The average retail investor doesn’t know a P/E ratio from a gym class. Accordingly, they listen to CNBC talking heads, many of whom rely on “channel checks” to divine iPhone sales despite Apple CEO Tim Cook’s warning that suppliers are a bad proxy for actual results.

Wall Street myopia. Currently, Wall Street believes Microsofthas three times better prospects than Apple (based on relative P/E ratios). On what planet can anyone defend this conclusion? Microsoft has failed in mobile, is giving away Windows and new versions of Office have long ceased to be meaningful. The cloud business is a race to the bottom, and I’d hate to compete with Amazon’s cloud service since Amazondoesn’t have to make any profits.

Perception. Apple’s iPhone business is winning spectacularly. But for the Street, it’s a Wall of Worry. Apple’s worldwide market share for the iPhone is approximately 14%. As Daniel Eran Dilger pointed out, Google’s GOOG -1.57% Android is a feeding tube for new Apple customers. If Apple is too concentrated in iPhones, so is Starbucks SBUX -1.30% selling coffee, Boeing BA -1.24% selling planes, General Motors GM -0.93% selling cars, etc. (the list is very long). Really now, has everyone purchased their last smartphone? Has everyone purchased their last car? The replacement cycle for smartphones would be the envy of the car business, an industry populated by over 20 brands competing for the same customer. By contrast, Apple has never been in a stronger position and its competitors have never been weaker. Yet, some auto manufacturers have a higher P/E ratio than Apple. More Alice in Wonderland in the stock market.

“Any one of the above suggests the stock market is inefficient as hell,” Merckel concludes. “That all of the above apply produces a truly asinine Apple stock price.”