當投資者擔心經濟增速放緩的時候，手中的資金該何去何從？

45歲的張玉輝（音譯）穿著一雙舒適的系帶黑鞋，臉上帶著銷售人員慣有的笑容，接受了《財富》雜志的采訪。自上世紀90年代以來，張玉輝就一直在做鋼材生意，銷售家鄉哈爾濱生產的工業器械特種鋼材。如今，張先生早已成家，并育有一子，成為人們眼中典型的中國富商。

但是，他和身邊的朋友們一樣，開始對經濟增速放緩充滿了擔憂。

張先生的公司2011年業績最為輝煌，營業額達到8000萬美元。當時，形勢一片大好，仿佛中國經濟能永遠保持10%的增長。他回憶說，正是因為有這樣的預期，他的一些朋友從銀行貸了巨款。然而，今年工業持續衰退，尤其是被稱為“生銹地帶”的東北三省，因此，張先生的期望值已降低至5000萬美元的營業額，而他那些朋友早就已經拖欠銀行貸款了。

與大多數中國人一樣，張先生的主要投資領域是房地產。他沒有存款，而且自2000年最后一次炒股之后就不再信任股市。在2005年左右，張先生花40萬美元在哈爾濱購買了第一套房產，那時，人們可以很容易就用房產做抵押，然后再貸款買更多房子。他目前擁有兩棟別墅、三家商鋪和五套住房，總價值約1250萬美元。然而，過去兩年，哈爾濱房地產市場的跌幅超過10%，雖然他財務狀況還算理想，但“銀行已經準備提前收回貸款。”他說，“很多人都很擔心。其實，我又何嘗不是如此。”

他已經出售了幾處地產，但仍沒有想好賣來的錢如何處理，現在全是握在手里的現金。他說，“股市可以考慮”，因為股市已經從今年夏天的低谷開始反彈，這多少帶來一些信心；或者，他也可以投資比較“穩健”的美國和英國的房地產，但中國有資本管制，每年向外國轉移的資金不能超過5萬美元。“繞過管制的方法多的是”，他說道。

他并不看好公司的業務前景。張先生說：“造船行業很不景氣，汽車行業幾乎已經見頂。未來幾年內，高鐵倒是有可能有所增長。”

因此，他把賭注押在了消費服務領域。張先生最近在哈爾濱開了一家普洱茶館，顧客喝一次茶的消費超過100美元，而普洱茶每盎司的價格甚至已經超過了白銀。他認為，中國各地的老百姓都越來越有錢，到哈爾濱旅游的人因此也會增加。他不希望錯過中國的下一個投資趨勢——消費熱潮。（財富中文網）

譯者：馮豐

校對：夏林

Where do you park your money if you’re worried about a slowdown?

Zhang Yuhui wears the comfortable black lace-up shoes and permanent smile of a salesman. Since the ’90s, he’s run his own steel-trading business. It sells the specialized varieties used in industrial machines from his hometown, Harbin, a provincial capital in China’s north, built by Russians, whose skyline still sports the spiraled onion domes of an earlier time. Zhang is 45 and married, has a son, and, like his friends, is fretting about an economic slowdown. In other words, he is a typical wealthy Chinese investor.

Zhang’s company’s revenue peaked at around $80 million in 2011, when it looked as if China’s economy would grow at 10% a year forever. He says his friends took out large bank loans on that assumption. This year, with the industrial sector in recession, especially in the northern provinces known as China’s Rustbelt, Zhang is hoping his revenue reaches $50 million. His friends have defaulted on their loans.

Like most Chinese, Zhang’s chief investment is real estate. He doesn’t have a savings account and hasn’t trusted the stock market since he last owned shares, in 2000. Back in the mid-2000s, after Zhang spent $400,000 on his first building in Harbin, it was easy to borrow against it for money to buy more. He now owns two villas, three shops, and five homes, worth about $12.5 million. But real estate prices have declined by double-digit percentages over the past two years in Harbin. “Now the bank is calling all the loans,” he says, and while his own finances are in good shape, “a lot of people are worried. To be honest, I worry like many people.”

He has already sold a few properties and is undecided about what to do with the proceeds, which he’s holding in cash. “The stock market is one choice,” he says, explaining that he has been encouraged by its rebound from summer lows. Or there’s real estate in the U.S. and U.K., which he calls “stable.” And China’s capital controls, which restrict moving more than $50,000 abroad a year? “There are many ways around it,” he says.

He’s glum about his own business’s prospects. “The shipbuilding industry is bad,” Zhang says. “The auto industry has almost peaked. Maybe high-speed rail will grow in the next few years.”

So he’s making his next bet on consumer services. He recently opened a tea shop in Harbin that sells pu-erh tea (more expensive, ounce for ounce, than silver) for more than $100 a sitting. Domestic tourism to his cold northern city will grow, he says; besides, people across China are still getting richer. Zhang says he doesn’t want to miss China’s next investing trend—a consumer boom.?