????水力壓裂行業的末日可能終于到了。

????一年來，盡管油價大幅下跌，但能源行業破產的公司一直較少。然而，這種情況可能即將改變。咨詢機構ISI Evercore能源行業分析師詹姆斯·韋斯特指出，連續數月的低開工量已經讓許多水力壓裂公司要么已經資不抵債，要么也快了。他預計，到明年底，可能會有多達三分之一的水力壓裂服務公司破產。

????韋斯特說：“石油業的這個假期并不美好。”

????到目前為止，油氣開采企業的支出水平雖有所回落，但它們仍在按照一年前制定的預算來投入資金，而一年前的油價要高的多。維斯特認為，如今油價對油氣開采公司形成倒逼，這些公司也許很快就得大幅削減服務支出，而銀行將成為催化劑。

????當初銀行向這些油氣公司發放貸款時，依據的是后者的儲量價值。但對這一數值的審計只在每年10月份進行一次。考慮到一年來油價下跌的幅度，許多分析師都認為下個月銀行愿意發放給油氣公司的貸款將急劇減少。由于擔心銀行可能蒙受損失，監管部門最近已經開始向其施壓，要求它們減少對油氣行業放貸。

????9月25日，信用評級機構標普稱其問題貸款率，也就是投資者擔心可能無力償債的公司借款人所占的百分比，已經達到2011年以來的最高點。在270名問題借款人中，有95名來自油氣行業，占比最大。

????大多數面臨倒閉厄運的水力壓裂公司都較小，但一些規模較大的壓裂服務供應商也開始受到上述問題的影響。標普列出的問題借款人就包括Linn Energy，這家油氣勘探公司設在休斯頓，市值達10億美元，有近2000名員工。過去一年中，Linn Energy的股價已經下跌90%。標普指出，該公司的問題債務余額接近60億美元。

????同時，標普的名單中還有Basic Energy Services和Seventy Seven Energy兩大上市壓裂服務商的身影。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????Doomsday may finally be coming to the fracking industry.

????Despite the big drop in oil prices in the past year, there have been relatively few bankruptcies in the energy industry. That may be about to change. James West, an energy industry analyst at ISI Evercore, says months of low activity have left many of the companies in the hydraulic-fracturing business either insolvent or close to it. He says as many as a third of the fracking companies could go bust by the end of next year.

????“This holiday will not be a time of cheer in the oil patch,” says West.

????So far oil and gas exploration companies, while cutting back somewhat, have continued to spend based on budgets set a year ago when oil prices were much higher. But now West says the price of oil is catching up to them, and they may soon have to drastically cut back their spending on services. The catalyst is the banks.

????Banks lend to oil exploration companies based on the value of their reserves. But they only audit the value of those reserves every October. Given how much oil prices have tumbled in the past year, many analysts expect banks to greatly reduce in the next month how much they are willing to lend to oil and gas companies. Regulators, worried banks may face losses, have recently been pressuring banks to cut back their lending to oil and gas companies.

????On Friday, credit ratings firm Standard & Poors reported that its distressed ratio, which measures the percentage of corporate borrowers that investors appear nervous may not be able to pay back their debt, had reached the highest level since 2011. The oil and gas sector accounted for the largest number of the distressed borrowers, 95 out of 270.

????Most of the fracking firms that face extinction are relatively small. But the problems are starting to affect some of the bigger companies in the industry. On S&P’s list of distressed borrowers is Linn Energy, a $1 billion market cap oil and gas exploration company based in Houston. It has nearly 2,000 employees. Shares of Linn LINE -4.71% have dropped 90% in the past year. S&P says the company has nearly $6 billion in outstanding distressed debt.

????Also on S&P’s list are publicly traded fracking companies Basic Energy Services BAS -5.40% and Seventy Seven Energy SSE 3.37% .