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礦業巨頭嘉能可向大宗商品價格暴跌低頭

礦業巨頭嘉能可向大宗商品價格暴跌低頭

Geoffrey Smith 2015年09月09日
因中國經濟放緩,全球大宗商品價格暴跌,銅價已跌至六年來的最低點,瑞士礦業及大宗商品巨頭嘉能可也撐不住了。它宣布將發行新股融資25億美元,并轉讓數十億美元資產,以及停產兩座非洲銅礦。

????嘉能可本周一(9月7日)表示,為扭轉股價下跌60%的頹勢,該公司將通過發行新股融資25億美元,而且至少在明年年中以前不會分紅;同時,它將轉讓數十億美元資產,并讓虧損礦山暫時停產。此外,嘉能可還將在明年底前把債務削減約三分之一,從300億美元降至200億美元。

????不到一個月前,投資者指出嘉能可的最新舉措不足以應付大宗商品價格急劇下跌的局面,隨后該公司祭出新招。三周前公布中期業績至今,嘉能可的股價已下跌30%。不過,本周一午后它在倫敦市場反彈7.3%,成為漲幅最高的個股。

????近年來,嘉能可公司高層一直能獲得數十億美元的分紅;如今,他們將把其中約5.5億美元資金重新注入該公司,用于認購新股,在高達25億美元新股發行額中占22%。剩余新股將由花旗集團和摩根士丹利負責承銷。

????同時,首席執行官伊萬?格拉森伯格及其同僚至少必須放棄明年年中以前的分紅。格拉森伯格表示,此舉將為嘉能可節省24億美元現金。

????受影響的不光是最高層。該公司設在剛果和贊比亞的兩座銅礦將停產一年半,直到完成升級改造,從而將現金成本降低三分之一左右。

????銅價已跌至六年來的最低點,原因是外界下調了今后中國的經濟增長預期。紐約期銅目前價格約為每磅2.35美元,與全球金融危機后每磅4.48美元的最高點相比幾乎回落了一半。嘉能可擬停產的兩座銅礦分屬Katanga和Mopani礦業公司,目前的現金成本都超過每磅2.50美元。巴克萊分析師估算,按目前價格計算,到明年底,兩座礦山停產將為嘉能可節省成本5.60億美元。

????巴克萊在發給客戶的報告中指出:“管理層采取了重大而且可行的措施。”

????嘉能可采取上述舉措很大程度上是迫于國際評級機構的壓力,后者一直威脅稱,如果該公司不進一步采取措施來改善資產負債情況,就將其評級降至“垃圾級”邊緣。鑒于負債沉重,嘉能可也許幾乎已經無力再承擔更多償債義務。

????穆迪上個月表示,嘉能可需要付出更多努力,以便維持“Baa2”的長期債務評級;標普則將該公司“BBB”評級的展望從“穩定”下調至“負面”。

????嘉能可采取的措施讓投資者感到高興,他們認為減產有望使低迷的全球市場再次達到平衡,大宗商品價格以及部分跌幅較深的礦業股因而上揚。

????然而,作為大宗商品大藍籌,嘉能可暫停分紅對其他礦業股的影響有好有壞,原因是此舉讓人們更加擔心,必和必拓以及力拓等分紅表現一直很可靠的公司可能被迫采取類似行動。在大宗商品領域,外界對此事的解讀最不利于石油公司,原因是沒有跡象表明原油市場將重新實現供需平衡。英國石油和殼牌石油的股價均滑落至多年低點附近。(財富中文網)

????譯者:Charlie

????校對:詹妮

????The company said Monday it will raise $2.5 billion in new equity, stop dividend payments until at least the middle of next year, sell billions of dollars’ worth of assets and suspend production at loss-making mines, in an effort to reverse a 60% drop in its share price. It will also cut net debt by around a third to $20 billion from $30 billion by the end of next year.

????The measures come less than a month after investors said Glencore’s latest try at adjusting to a world of sharply lower commodity prices wasn’t enough. Its shares had fallen 30% since unveiling its half-year results three weeks ago, but rebounded 7.3% by early afternoon in London Monday, making it the best performer in the London market.

????Glencore’s senior management, who have been able to take billions out of the company in dividends in recent years, will re-inject around $550 million of that money, subscribing to 22% of a proposed stock offering of up to $2.5 billion. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are underwriting the rest.

????At the same time, CEO Ivan Glasenberg and his cohorts will have to do without dividends at least until the middle of 2016–a move Glencore says will conserve $2.4 billion of cash.

????It won’t be just the top brass that suffers: Glencore will also stop operations at two copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia for 18 months, until it completes upgrades that will cut their cash costs by around a third.

????Copper prices have slumped to their lowest in six years as the world has revised down its estimates of future growth in China. New York copper futures currently trade around $2.35 a pound, barely half their post-crisis peak of $4.48/lb. The two African mines in question, Katanga and Mopani, have cash costs over $2.50/lb at present. Analysts at Barclays said shutting them would save $560 million by the end of next year, if prices stay where they are.

????“These are big and achievable steps by management,” Barclays said in a note to clients.

????To a large degree, Glencore’s actions were dictated by the international ratings agencies, who have been threatening to cut their rating to the verge of “junk” if it didn’t do more to shore up its balance sheet. Given the scale of Glencore’s debts, it could hardly afford a bigger bill to service them.

????Moody’s said last month the company needed to do more to support the Baa2 rating it had on Glencore’s long-term debt, while Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on its BBB rating to negative from stable.

????Glencore’s moves lifted both commodity prices and the share prices of some of the more battered miners, as investors cheered the prospect of supply being cut to rebalance weak global markets.

????But the sight of a major commodities blue-chip axing its dividend had a mixed effect on some companies in the peer group, amplifying fears that traditionally dependable dividend payers like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto plc could be forced to follow suit. The read-across was the worst for companies operating in the commodity where there’s no sign of the market coming back into balance: crude oil. Shares in both BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc fell to levels close to multi-year lows.

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