????全球石油供給過剩，國際油價延續著一年來的大幅滑坡勢頭。有分析師預計油價將進一步下跌，之后才能好轉。

????上周， 美國油價向著每桶40美元的水平滑落，創六年新低，和去年夏天的高點相比已下挫近60%。《華爾街日報》報道，花旗集團分析師認為，油價迅速逼近每桶30美元的“可能性為90%”。

????油價可能繼續下行的原因有幾個，包括燃油需求通常較高的美國夏季駕車出行高峰已經過去，市場對中國經濟增長乏力感到擔心，以及產油國繼續提高石油產量。上周公布的數據顯示，美國商品原油供給量仍接近幾十年來的最高點，原因是美國頁巖油行業的蓬勃發展使產油量達到歷史最高水平。同時，沒有任何跡象表明以石油輸出國組織（OPEC）為首的中東國家開始下調目標產量，以便全球石油供應更貼近需求。

????盡管今年早些時候油價曾短暫反彈，并且一度升至每桶60美元以上，但去年油價觸及近100美元的高點后，市場對供給過剩的擔憂基本上讓石油價格一直處于直線下滑狀態。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????Crude oil prices are continuing their yearlong plunge amid the global oil supply glut and some analysts think the commodity’s decline will only get worse before it gets better.

????The price of U.S. oil has fell to nearly $40 per barrel this week — its lowest point in six years and nearly a 60% decline from last summer’s highs — and The Wall Street Journal reports that analysts at Citigroup think there is “a 90% likelihood” that the price will drop closer to $30 a barrel very soon.

????Several factors are contributing to the likely continued price drop, including the end of the summer season, when demand for oil is generally at a high point, as well as market concerns over the sluggish Chinese economy and the fact that oil-producing countries continue to stockpile their supplies. Oil inventory data released this week showed U.S. commercial crude supplies remain near their highest levels in several decades, as the U.S. shale boom continues to drive record production. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern countries, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have shown no signs of cutting their production targets to bring global supply more in line with demand.

????While a short-lived oil rally took prices above $60 per barrel earlier this year, the industry’s supply concerns have mostly kept prices in a free-fall after touching highs near $100 per barrel of crude oil last year.